Published: June 28, 2021
The survival of both African rhinoceros species is under threat due to large-scale poaching. pressure that poaching currently exerts on rhino populations too large solely wait for long-term conservation strategies, e.g., demand and corruption reduction campaigns, take effect. Consequently, protection efforts aimed at the short-term seem be urgently needed. Unfortunately, current fail prevent population declines as officers often localize poachers before they can kill a rhino. Therefore I develop poacher early warning system provides with more situational awareness, which therefore decrease risk shootouts between officers.For this task focused developing ''sentinel-based system'', envision nature reserves where abundant prey animals are tracked movement responses these automatically used detect presence infer location poachers. Hence term: ''sentinel'', themselves will role game wardens. benefit such it could working all times not limited Apart from obvious wildlife challenge thesis poses, also tackles major scientific challenge: able abrupt changes in an environmental variable based animal movement. In order solve challenge, myriad variables needed considered interaction single model. This premise lead me use non-traditional statistical approach ecologists: artificial intelligence.This brings together number coherent papers about conservation, ecology intelligence, investigating necessity, analytics applicability sentinel-based system. Chapter 2 critically evaluated whether actually examined by if legal international horn trade ultimate solution Through integrative review grey literature legalization, identified four main mechanisms through market would influence remaining wild populations: 1) financial viability private owners, 2) demand, 3) laundering horns, 4) behaviour consumers. Subsequently, determined plausible reasoning only increased revenue farmers potentially conservation. Conversely, global likely increase level cannot met supply. Moreover, omnipresent countries along routes, has potential negatively affect Finally, programmes reducing counteracted legalization removing stigma consuming horn. After combining insights comparing them criteria sustainable farming, concluded legalizing impact populations. To preserve suggest combine long- approaches, prioritizing within trade, increasing well-protected 'safe havens' implementing educational law enforcement targeted consumers.In 3 investigated how much tropical general impacted hunting, apart considering rhinos. did analyzing human hunters alter abundance spatial distribution tropics. systematic mixed effects meta-analysis estimated bird abundances declined average 58% (95% CI: 25-76%) mammal 83% 72-90%) hunted compared unhunted areas. Mammal densities were higher inside than outside protected areas, but hunting reduced even Furthermore, depleted 7 kilometers 40 roads settlements, function access points hunters. These results signify very large. Although effect areas less detrimental reserves, gazettement seems insufficient safeguard accompanied improved reserve management, effective on-ground efforts.In 4 studied link individual rules emergent collective properties, provide information perceived environment animals. For agent-based simulation model investigate indirect fear resources group structures. directly affected resources, self-organization became apparent size formed groups. specifically inherent variability sizes groups generated identical self-organizing processes. found coefficient variation generally lied 50 150% simulations, depending density resource scarcity/predation trade-off. Given variations already homogeneous deterministic scenarios, consider imprecise proxy conditions. Considering imprecision its time lag conditions, informative slowly-evolving conditions require recent history informative.In 5 predicted their data. different influenced multivariate entirety. linking high-resolution sensor data cows controlled various extensive feature engineering machine learning predict Using data-driven framework demonstrated possible quantify performance metrics regression algorithms. Depending chosen window engineering, scales studied. types features (e.g., individual- collective-based, or GPS- accelerometer-based) included separately combination framework. Even though aim exact contribution separate total movement, core accurately well.In 6 developed Welgevonden Game Reserve (South Africa). 138 savanna ungulates combined experimentally staged intrusions, algorithmically detected localized using three-step analytical process achieve this, namely: classification, detection, localization. first step importance interpreting deviations expectations given similar complex relationship animals' heterogeneous achieved precision 46% classify humans versus other quite achievement (given class imbalance normal response behaviour, heterogeneity study area), still leads substantial amount misclassification. However, next two steps classified collectively spatiotemporal context, allowed drastically improve upon detection localization 'poachers'. Periods present area distinguished periods without 86% accuracy balanced validation design, 500m error 54.2% intrusions. chapter thus demonstrates feasibility theme thesis, namely poachers.In automated algorithm aerial imagery intention gauge supplement replace animal-born sensors track en masse near future. deep herbivores images survey Kenya, after same With managed 90-95% layers annotation, correctly 2.8-4.0% extra missed humans. result 1.6-5.0 false positives per true positive, emphasizes manual verification automatic counts images. semi-automatic estimates. indicated detections have find can, especially when supplied taken fixed rate. aforementioned, acknowledge tracking tags. chance decreases substantially horizontal distance camera, expect cameras suitable relatively small areas.Finally, 8 synthesized my research light ecology. argued lies mainly aid during Anthropocene, concurrently reduce some negative associated 'militarized conservation' rights violations). plead collaboration conservationists short- maximize efficacy occasional trade-off success Anthropocene development society harmony nature. forecasted intelligence research, may change way understanding acquired Exciting developments related explainability causality being undertaken computer scientists, scientists do input ecologists make truly insightful applicable real world.
Language: Английский
