The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(6611)

Published: Sept. 8, 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide revised shortlist global "core" elements regional "impact" their temperature thresholds. Current ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within lower end some point uncertainty ranges. Several may be triggered Paris Agreement range 1.5 <2°C warming, with many more likely at 2 3°C expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens evidence base for urgent action mitigate develop improved risk assessment, early warning capability, adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Groundwater springs formed during glacial retreat are a large source of methane in the high Arctic

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(7), P. 597 - 604

Published: July 1, 2023

Abstract Permafrost and glaciers in the high Arctic form an impermeable ‘cryospheric cap’ that traps a large reservoir of subsurface methane, preventing it from reaching atmosphere. Cryospheric vulnerability to climate warming is making releases this methane possible. On Svalbard, where air temperatures are rising more than two times faster average for Arctic, retreating leaving behind exposed forefields enable rapid escape. Here we document how methane-rich groundwater springs have formed recently revealed 78 land-terminating across central bringing deep-seated gas surface. Waters collected these during February–May 2021 2022 supersaturated with up 600,000 greater atmospheric equilibration. Spatial sampling reveals geological dependency on extent supersaturation, isotopic evidence thermogenic source. We estimate annual emissions proglacial groundwaters be 2.31 kt Svalbard archipelago. Further investigations into marine-terminating indicate future emission sources as transition fully land-based systems. Our findings reveal climate-driven glacial retreat facilitates widespread release positive feedback loop probably prevalent other regions rapidly Arctic.

Language: Английский

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Three decades of increasing fish biodiversity across the northeast Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(4)

Published: Jan. 19, 2023

Observed range shifts of numerous species support predictions climate change models that will shift their distribution northward into the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas due to ocean warming. However, how this is affecting overall richness unclear. Here we analyze 20,670 scientific research trawls from North Sea Ocean collected 1994 2020, including 193 fish species. We found demersal at local scale has doubled in some regions, Barents Sea, increased a lower rate adjacent regions last three decades, followed by an increase turnover regional scale. These changes biodiversity correlated with sea bottom temperature. Within study area, species’ probability occurrence generally declined over time. southern latitudes, together species, ultimately led enrichment marine fauna increasing water temperature consistent change.

Language: Английский

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A Review of Arctic–Subarctic Ocean Linkages: Past Changes, Mechanisms, and Future Projections

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the with global ocean and affecting climate marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic linkages examined their changes driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical occurred inflows outflows of during 2010s. Specifically, Pacific inflow temperature Bering Strait Atlantic Fram hit record highs, while salinity outflow Davis straits lows. Both heat convergence from lower latitudes to hydrological cycle connecting Subarctic seas were stronger 2000–2020 than 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project continuing increase poleward 21st century, mainly due warming waters. They also predict an freshwater input Ocean, largest export expected occur both increased volume decreased salinity. sea ice low 2010s is projected continue decrease along decline. quantitatively attribute variability volume, heat, transports gateways forcing within outside based dedicated numerical simulations emphasize importance origins variability.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal plankton dynamics in Kongsfjorden during two years of contrasting environmental conditions

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 213, P. 102996 - 102996

Published: Feb. 24, 2023

Seasonal plankton time-series data are presented from Kongsfjorden two years with contrasting environmental conditions. (west coast of Spitsbergen – 79°N) integrates inputs Atlantic and Arctic waters, glacier run-off, is thus a prime location to study impacts on ecosystem dynamics key drivers that relevant across the Arctic. Despite extensive research in Kongsfjorden, seasonally-resolved scarce. From late April/early May early September 2019 2020, we conducted pelagic sampling at mid-fjord station mostly weekly bi-weekly resolution investigating phyto- zooplankton community composition phenology. During spring 2019, water masses temperatures > 1 °C were found throughout upper 250 m column, little sea ice occurred fjord. Spring turn, was characterized by presence local sub-zero relatively sea-ice cover. The most striking contrast between difference phytoplankton bloom composition. In dominated colonial stage haptophyte Phaeocystis pouchetii diatoms played minor role, while 2020 genus Thalassiosira succeeded P. pouchetii. Selective grazing large copepods mass structure seem have been decisive factors explaining marked diatom biomass similar abundances both indicated this species less impacted those factors. Our suggest differences trophic transfer carbon export. Recruitment dominant Calanus finmarchicus C. glacialis, Cirripedia euphausiid larvae as well export seabed more efficient during diatom-dominated compared pouchetii–dominated bloom. summer, shifted towards flagellate-dominated mixo- heterotrophic taxa adapted lower nutrient regime strong top-down control copepod grazers. However, residual silicic acid after fueled summer 2019. provide first glimpse into phenology underline high-resolution monitoring over many annual cycles required resolve ephemeral variations populations against backdrop climate change.

Language: Английский

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Still Arctic?—The changing Barents Sea

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

The Barents Sea is one of the Polar regions where current climate and ecosystem change most pronounced. Here we review state knowledge physical, chemical biological systems in Sea. Physical conditions this area are characterized by large seasonal contrasts between partial sea-ice cover winter spring versus predominantly open water summer autumn. Observations over recent decades show that surface air ocean temperatures have increased, extent has decreased, stratification weakened, chemistry components changed, latter a direction often described as “Atlantification” or “borealisation,” with less “Arctic” appearance. Temporal spatial changes wider relevance, both context large-scale climatic (air, mass sea-ice) transport processes comparison to other Arctic regions. These observed also socioeconomic consequences, including for fisheries human activities. While several ongoing monitored quantified, observation gaps remain, especially months when field observations sample collections still sparse. Knowledge interplay physical biogeochemical drivers responses, complex feedback processes, needs further development.

Language: Английский

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Drivers of change in Arctic fjord socio-ecological systems: Examples from the European Arctic

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Fjord systems are transition zones between land and sea, resulting in complex dynamic environments. They of particular interest the Arctic as they harbour ecosystems inhabited by a rich range species provide many societal benefits. The key drivers change European (i.e., Greenland, Svalbard, Northern Norway) fjord socio-ecological reviewed here, structured into five categories: cryosphere (sea ice, glacier mass balance, glacial riverine discharge), physics (seawater temperature, salinity, light), chemistry (carbonate system, nutrients), biology (primary production, biomass, richness), social (governance, tourism, fisheries). data available for past present state these drivers, well future model projections, analysed companion paper. Changes to two at base most interactions within fjords, seawater temperature will have significant profound consequences on fjords. This is because even though governance may be effective mitigating/adapting local disruptions caused changing climate, there possibly nothing that can done halt melting glaciers, warming waters, all downstream changes have. review provides first transdisciplinary synthesis systems. Knowledge what are, how interact with one another, should more expedient focus research needs adapting Arctic.

Language: Английский

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Earlier sea-ice melt extends the oligotrophic summer period in the Barents Sea with low algal biomass and associated low vertical flux

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 213, P. 103018 - 103018

Published: March 21, 2023

The decrease in Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness as a result of global warming will impact the timing, duration, magnitude composition phytoplankton production with cascading effects on marine food-webs biogeochemical cycles. Here, we elucidate environmental drivers shaping composition, abundance, biomass, trophic state vertical flux protists (unicellular eukaryotes), including phytoplankton, Barents Sea late August 2018 2019. two years were characterized by contrasting conditions. In 2018, edge had retreated well beyond shelf break into Nansen Basin (>82°N), while 2019, extensive areas northwestern (>79°N) still ice-covered. These conditions resulted marked interannual differences pelagic protist community structure this area. was post-bloom stage seasonal succession oligotrophic surface waters dominance small-sized heterotrophic (predominantly flagellates ciliates) at most stations. higher contribution autotrophs large-celled particularly diatoms, to total biomass compared reflected chlorophyll concentrations suggested that bloom some It is noteworthy diatoms contributed considerably proportion ice-covered stations both open-water This pattern also evident dominated dinoflagellates 2018. Our results suggest predicted transition toward an ice-free lengthen summer period low algal associated flux.

Language: Английский

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Filling knowledge gaps in Arctic marine biodiversity: Environment, plankton, and benthos of Franz Josef Land, Barents Sea

Ocean & Coastal Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 249, P. 106987 - 106987

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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