Effect of climate change on potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soó in the twenty-first century across the north-western Himalayas

Folia oecologica, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(1), P. 48 - 61

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract The populations of Dactylorhiza hatagirea are shrinking fast across the north-western Himalayas. Although effects contemporary anthropic factors on its distribution well documented, impacts anticipated climate change have not been evaluated. In present study, maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt) was used to quantify impact D. over next 50 years under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, using ensemble mean four general circulation models, viz. CCSM4, CNRM, MRI, GFDL. results exhibited a fairly good model performance, with attaining highest suitability when ‘annual temperature’ precipitation’ peaks at ca. 11.5 °C 1,250 mm, respectively. variables greater influence (%) were annual precipitation (40.7), temperature wettest quarter (22.9), seasonality (16.6), (10.4). Under current climate, about 790 km 2 that spread Kashmir (274.1 km2) Jammu (210.5 ), Ladakh (305.6 ) identified as high potential habitat (HPH) areas. predicted showed for RCP HPH areas would decrease by 4.2 5.4%, 2050 2070, while RC P8.5 be 18.1 8.7%, shrinkage may more obvious tropical temperate regions, species gain new cold arid appears mild, but it exhibits specificity grows inherently slow, this insignificant enhance risk local extinction. Therefore, an integrated approach involving in-situ measures where disappear, ex-situ measures, expand, is hugely important.

Language: Английский

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Ecological Dynamics, Ethnobotanical Significance, and Habitat Projections for <i>Arisaema Costatum</i> (Wall.) Mart. in Response to Climate Change in Nepal

SSRN Electronic Journal, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Climate Change Drives Shifts in Suitable Habitats of Three Stipa purpurea Alpine Steppes on the Western Tibetan Plateau

Diversity, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 145 - 145

Published: Feb. 21, 2025

The alpine steppe has an important place in ecosystems, and its distribution pattern is strongly influenced by climate change. In this study, we used “biomod2” “FragStats 4.2” to calculate the migration trends habitat fragmentation of three S. purpurea steppes on western Tibetan Plateau. results study show that Stipa purpurea-Ceratoides compacta steppe, purpurea-Carex moorcroftii montis-everestii are climate, while other variables have less impact. Their main influence factors annual precipitation (Bio12), warmest quarter (Bio18), coldest (Bio19), respectively. effects carbon emissions suitable habitats all significant future scenarios. Continued increases will lead a continuous reduction their areas. These communities bounded 33° N. South boundary, mountain ranges tendency migrate higher elevations southward direction. North northward Climate change reduces community aggregation, leading gradual fragmentation. findings provide scientific basis for conservation Plateau, thereby contributing improvement ecosystem stability species diversity.

Language: Английский

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Effects of Climate Change Scenarios on Population and Distribution Pattern of Tree–Ferns in Nepal

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(4)

Published: March 30, 2025

ABSTRACT By studying the population structure and spatial characteristics, relationship between tree‐ferns environment can be reflected, which has high practical significance. In this study, we employed an ensemble distribution model to evaluate relative contribution of various environmental variables predict suitable habitats for tree‐fern across past, present, future periods. Fieldwork was carried out May–June 2019 September 2022 in 11 districts Nepal sampling collecting geocoordinates. Additional geocoordinates were collected from secondary sources such as previous literature, herbarium records, online resources. We reported occurrence 28 within altitudinal range 300–2500 m. Longitudinally, species is distributed only central eastern Nepal, with maximum density Nepal's Kaski Lamjung districts. The mid‐hills Koshi Gandaki provinces, particularly moist rainfall, are tree‐ferns. projected influenced mainly by mean temperature coldest quarter—Bio11 (34.9%), precipitation dry months—Bio14 (34.5%), annual temperature—Bio1 (33.9%). Climate extreme (maximum warmest months—Bio5, minimum months—Bio6, wettest months—Bio13, quarter—Bio16) contract species. result portrays expansion habitat while minor contractions predicted four Bagmati province. As province receives highest rainfall rich soil moisture, plays a significant role distribution, humid riverine places support populations. Tree‐ferns could indicator climate. Given extensive India, China, sustainable conservation through action plan holds broader implications.

Language: Английский

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Global Warming Drives Shifts in the Suitable Habitats of Subalpine Shrublands in the Hengduan Mountains Region in China

Forests, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 624 - 624

Published: April 2, 2025

Subalpine shrubland is an important vegetation type in the Hengduan Mountains region of China, and its distribution has been substantially influenced by global warming. In this research, four subalpine shrub communities were selected: Rhododendron heliolepis Franch. scrub, flavidum Quercus monimotricha (Hand.-Mazz.) Hand.-Mazz. Pinus yunnanensis var. pygmaea (Hsueh ex C. Y. Cheng, W. Cheng & L. K. Fu) Hsueh scrub. A MaxEnt model was used to assess suitable habitats their primary drivers shrublands China under different climate scenarios. Our results indicate following: (1) The habitat areas exhibit a predominant within region, with small populations Himalayas Wumeng Mountain. Temperature precipitation are identified as influencing shrublands, temperature factor more influential than factor. Furthermore, contribution rate slope scrub 19.2%, which cannot be disregarded. (2) Under future scenarios, total show expanding trend. However, highly three (Rhododendron scrub) contracting trend high-carbon-emission scenario (SSP585). (3) Driven warming, shift toward higher elevations northwest, while varies carbon emission much smaller range other scrubs. study contributes valuable insights into spatiotemporal dynamics change, providing scientific guidance for biodiversity conservation ecosystem restoration.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the impact of global warming on the distributions of Allium stipitatum and Kelussia odoratissima in the Central Zagros using a MaxEnt model

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(4), P. e0321167 - e0321167

Published: April 16, 2025

Global warming is an undeniable fact occurring in different parts of the world. Climate changes can have irreversible effects on plant communities, particularly endemic and endangered species. Therefore, it important to predict impact climate change distribution these species help protect them. This study utilized MaxEnt model forecast distributions two medicinal, edible, aromatic species, Kelussia odoratissima Allium stipitatum , Chaharmahal Bakhtiari province. The used CCSM4 general circulation along with scenarios, RCP2.6 RCP8.5, for 2050s 2070s potential studied. research findings indicated that performed effectively prediction (AUC≥0.9). primary environmental variables influencing were found be isothermality (Bio3), soil organic carbon, pH A. precipitation seasonality (Bio15), wettest month (Bio13) K. . suggest studied expected decline due change, under both RCP8.5 scenarios. indicates likely a significantly negative effect habitats leading ecological socio-economic impacts. our emphasizes urgent need conservation efforts prevent their extinction habitats.

Language: Английский

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Habitat suitability modelling and range change dynamics of Bergenia stracheyi under projected climate change scenarios

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13

Published: April 22, 2025

Prioritizing native and endemic species for conservation is fundamental to achieve broader objectives of safeguarding biodiversity, as these are vulnerable extinction risks. Forecasting the climatic niche through distribution models can be crucial their habitat sustainable management in future. In this study, an ensemble modelling approach was used predict Bergenia stracheyi , a alpine plant Himalayan region. The results revealed that B . primarily influenced by Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) Precipitation (Bio12). Ensemble model predictions under current conditions, suitable habitats distributed across higher elevations Jammu Kashmir future indicate that, all scenarios, majority currently will remain species. predicts significant expansion B. particularly more severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5). However, some areas identified suitable, including parts Pir Panjal range Mirpur (Pakistan), projected become unsuitable These shifts may have far-reaching consequences ecosystem functioning stability services provided human communities. Additionally, lead mismatches between phenological events pollinators potentially causing ecological disruptions. Thus, predicted highlight importance local measures mitigate impacts change.

Language: Английский

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Predicting the potential habitats of two Lycium species and the quality suitability of Lycium Chinese Mill. Cortex under climate change

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 29, 2025

Lycii Cortex is a frequently utilized traditional Chinese medicine with notable therapeutic properties. The impact of climate change on its distribution and quality significant concern. In this study, it investigated the geographic two sources plants for collected data samples from different origins via an online survey. HPLC was employed to ascertain concentrations kukoamine B A in samples. Subsequently, integrated ecological factor were forecast prospective expansion areas Lycium Chinese Mill. barbarum L. under future climatic conditions, migration trajectory suitable habitat centers mass, potential factors at varying times using Maxent ArcGIS. current scenario indicates that habitats barbarum are primarily distributed northern, northwestern, southwestern regions China, while Chinese predominantly central, southern, southeastern China. RCP4.5 2050s 2070s, total area deemed both species significantly reduced. mean center shifted towards higher latitudes, lower latitudes. It predicted future, would appear decrease. results study can provide reference determination cultivation China sustainable development Lycium resources.

Language: Английский

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Ecological dynamics, ethnobotanical significance, and habitat projections for Arisaema costatum (Wall.) Mart. in response to climate change in Nepal

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 50, P. e02829 - e02829

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

The unique landscape of Nepal supports diverse ecological niches that are home to valuable plants, benefiting various ethnic groups. Wild edible plants have been essential for the livelihoods indigenous peoples and local communities due their affordability, ease harvest, renewable nature. However, climate change is altering habitat, distribution, ecology, phenology plant species in Himalayas. One such important Arisaema costatum, which has multiple uses. Unfortunately, change, deforestation land use changes led continuous distribution habitats A. costatum. We conducted field research involving 280 quadrats (2×2 meters) 210 interviews. By utilizing MaxEnt modeling considering different scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 4.5 8.5) as well climatic predictors localities, we analyzed 196 geospatial data points. This allowed us evaluate present suitable environment predict potential 2050 2070. Our findings revealed costatum used a vegetable by Traditional fermentation detoxification techniques employed its preparation. plays vital role household food nutrition, income generation, health security. Elevation, annual mean temperature (BIO-1), precipitation during warmest coldest quarters (BIO-18 BIO-19) were identified most influential factors projecting future Approximately 14% (21121.75 km2) Nepal's was found be habitat this species, with Gandaki, Bagmati, Koshi provinces temperate regions particularly well-suited compared other provinces. Highly areas expected gradually decrease from 0.14% 1.65% Thus, anticipated loss increasing temperatures Himalayas, urgent integrated development programs necessary address issue.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of Grassland Degradation on the Tibetan Plateau Based on Multi-Source Data

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(23), P. 6011 - 6011

Published: Nov. 27, 2022

Grassland is one of the most widely distributed ecosystems on Tibetan Plateau (TP) accounting for about 60% total area. The grassland degradation has spread throughout TP, and scope degree are increasing. inconsistency multi-source data poses a great challenge to accurately obtaining information TP. This study used five land cover products six vegetation indexes analyze spatial-temporal change in area quality at pixel level across TP from 2000 2020. Then, 279 observed points that were collected 86 published papers verify information. fusion product demonstrated increased by 8.84% 2020, rate exceeded greening during 2010–2020. superimposed showed 25.88% been degraded In Changdu City, Ganzi Autonomous Prefecture, Gannan Yushu Aba Qiang Rikaze Shannan City Nagqu more than 20% km2. mainly northeastern central parts consistency with was 56.63%, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) being effective other monitoring general, looming problem recent decades.

Language: Английский

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