Challenges in estimating species age from phylogenetic trees DOI Creative Commons
Carlos Calderón del Cid, Torsten Hauffe, Juan D. Carrillo

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 19, 2023

Abstract Aim Species age, the elapsed time since origination, can give an insight into how species longevity might influence eco-evolutionary dynamics and has been hypothesized to extinction risk. Traditionally, ages have measured in fossil record. However, recently, numerous studies attempted estimate of extant from branch lengths time-calibrated phylogenies. This approach poses problems because phylogenetic trees contain direct information about identity only at tips not along branches. Here, we show that incomplete taxon sampling, extinction, different assumptions speciation modes significantly alter relationship between true age lengths, leading high error rates. We found these biases lead erroneous interpretations patterns derived comparison other traits, such as Innovation For bifurcating speciation, which is default assumption most analyses, propose a probabilistic improve estimation ages, based on properties birth-death process. our model reduce by one order magnitude under cases percentage unsampled species. Main conclusion Our results call for caution interpreting this biased conclusions. that, bifurcate, it possible obtain better approximations combining with expectations

Language: Английский

Challenges in estimating species age from phylogenetic trees DOI Creative Commons
Carlos Calderón del Cid, Torsten Hauffe, Juan D. Carrillo

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 19, 2023

Abstract Aim Species age, the elapsed time since origination, can give an insight into how species longevity might influence eco-evolutionary dynamics and has been hypothesized to extinction risk. Traditionally, ages have measured in fossil record. However, recently, numerous studies attempted estimate of extant from branch lengths time-calibrated phylogenies. This approach poses problems because phylogenetic trees contain direct information about identity only at tips not along branches. Here, we show that incomplete taxon sampling, extinction, different assumptions speciation modes significantly alter relationship between true age lengths, leading high error rates. We found these biases lead erroneous interpretations patterns derived comparison other traits, such as Innovation For bifurcating speciation, which is default assumption most analyses, propose a probabilistic improve estimation ages, based on properties birth-death process. our model reduce by one order magnitude under cases percentage unsampled species. Main conclusion Our results call for caution interpreting this biased conclusions. that, bifurcate, it possible obtain better approximations combining with expectations

Language: Английский

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