Reconciling the Discrepancy in Projected Global Dryland Expansion in a Warming World DOI Creative Commons
Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Continental drying and associated dryland expansion would accelerate environmental degradation desertification. However, the rate of continental commonly assessed with an aridity index is inconsistent observations projections widespread greening increased global runoff. This raises questions about accuracy assessment methods dynamics in a warming world. Here we show that trend has been exaggerated because potential evapotranspiration (PET) its increase over time are grossly overestimated widely used Penman equations. Using energy‐based PET estimator, bias correct find considerably weaker less extensive (47% land area) than 61%–65% based on Dryland projected to occur only 2.1% area high‐emission scenario 21st century. Moreover, corrected ecohydrological hydroclimate all no change significance consistently extent drylands 32 climate models. These findings resolve ongoing debate have far‐reaching implications for understanding long‐term changes system their impacts terrestrial processes.

Language: Английский

Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs DOI Creative Commons
Wenqi Sun, Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Modeling the Nexus of Climate Change and Deforestation: Implications for the Blue Water Resources of the Jari River, Amazonia DOI Open Access
Paulo Ricardo Rufino, Björn Gücker, Martin Völk

et al.

Water, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(5), P. 660 - 660

Published: Feb. 24, 2025

Deforestation and agricultural practices, such as livestock farming, disrupt biogeochemical cycles, contribute to climate change, can lead serious environmental problems. Understanding the water cycle changes in discharge patterns at watershed scale is essential tracking how deforestation affects flow downstream bodies ocean. The Amazon basin, which provides about 15–20% of freshwater flowing into oceans, one most important river systems world. Despite this, it increasingly suffering from anthropogenic pressure, mainly converting rainforests areas, drive global warming ecosystem instability. In this study, we applied a calibrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model Jari River Watershed, part Brazilian Amazon, assess combined effects change on resources between 2020 2050. was validated using observed streamflow. results show an NS 0.85 0.89, PBIAS −9.5 −0.6, p-factor 0.84 0.93, r-factor 0.78, for periods calibration validation, respectively, indicating strong performance. We analyzed four scenarios that examined different levels change. Our suggest could increase surface runoff by 18 mm, while groundwater recharge vary declines −20 mm increases 120 mm. These amplify streamflow variability, affect its dynamics, intensify flood risks, reduce availability during dry periods, leading significant risks hydrology Amazonian watersheds human supply. This, turn, profoundly impact region’s megadiverse flora fauna, directly depend balanced watersheds.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Reconciling the Discrepancy in Projected Global Dryland Expansion in a Warming World DOI Creative Commons
Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Continental drying and associated dryland expansion would accelerate environmental degradation desertification. However, the rate of continental commonly assessed with an aridity index is inconsistent observations projections widespread greening increased global runoff. This raises questions about accuracy assessment methods dynamics in a warming world. Here we show that trend has been exaggerated because potential evapotranspiration (PET) its increase over time are grossly overestimated widely used Penman equations. Using energy‐based PET estimator, bias correct find considerably weaker less extensive (47% land area) than 61%–65% based on Dryland projected to occur only 2.1% area high‐emission scenario 21st century. Moreover, corrected ecohydrological hydroclimate all no change significance consistently extent drylands 32 climate models. These findings resolve ongoing debate have far‐reaching implications for understanding long‐term changes system their impacts terrestrial processes.

Language: Английский

Citations

0