Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 DOI Creative Commons
Andrew Reid Bell, David Wrathall, Valerie Mueller

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 024045 - 024045

Published: Jan. 19, 2021

To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results our model Bangladesh counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the coastline irrespective flooding amplified future SLC under all emissions scenarios until end this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based household decision-making captures multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on at a scale. then exposed ~4800 000 simulated migrants 871 projected 21st-century coastal pathways. Our does not predict impacts great enough drive populations coastlines in any scenarios. One reason is while accelerate transition agricultural non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant cities. At same time, some unable migrate, as flood losses accumulate reduce set (so-called 'trapped' populations). even when we increased access credit, commonly-proposed policy lever for incentivizing face climate risk, found number immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply instead straightforward relationship between migration, need consider multiple constraints on, preferences for, mobility. demonstrates decision-makers seeking affect outcomes around would do well individual-level adaptive behaviors motivations evolve through potential unintended behavioral responses.

Language: Английский

The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises DOI Creative Commons

Nick Watts,

Markus Amann, Nigel W. Arnell

et al.

The Lancet, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 397(10269), P. 129 - 170

Published: Dec. 2, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

1543
Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence DOI
Manoochehr Shirzaei, J. T. Freymueller, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 2(1), P. 40 - 58

Published: Dec. 10, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

246
Beach nourishment has complex implications for the future of sandy shores DOI
Matthieu A. de Schipper, Bonnie C. Ludka, Britt Raubenheimer

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 2(1), P. 70 - 84

Published: Nov. 24, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

204
A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping DOI Creative Commons
Rafaël Almar, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Erwin W. J. Bergsma

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: June 18, 2021

Abstract Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic flooding. This study presents global-scale potential overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise storm surge, but also wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that globally aggregated annual hours have increased by almost 50% over last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates will accelerate faster than global mean sea-level itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, end 21 st -century is projected be up 50 times larger compared present-day. As continues rise, more regions world become overtopping.

Language: Английский

Citations

179
Overcoming Global Food Security Challenges through Science and Solidarity DOI
Christopher B. Barrett

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 103(2), P. 422 - 447

Published: Oct. 27, 2020

The world faces formidable, but manageable, challenges in achieving food security a growing beyond 9 billion people the coming decades. Five big will necessitate shifting innovation strategy to place greater emphasis on sustainable increases diet quality, total factor productivity ‐ not just crop yield growth, social protection programs, Africa, post‐farmgate agri‐food value chains, risk management, and reducing land water footprint of production. We must be progressive both senses term, having faith science as an engine societal advance, standing with marginalized populations.

Language: Английский

Citations

171
A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration DOI Creative Commons
Celia McMichael, Shouro Dasgupta, Sonja Ayeb‐Karlsson

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 123005 - 123005

Published: Aug. 28, 2020

This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent migration due this exposure. Our identified 33 publications that provide SLR associated hazards. They fall into three main categories exposure, based on definitions in the publications: (i) impacted specified levels SLR; (ii) number people living floodplains are subject coastal flood events with a specific return period; (iii) low-elevation zones. Twenty these discuss connections between SLR. In our analysis data, we consider datasets, analytical methods, challenges estimating potential human migration. We underscore complex among SLR, its impacts, Human mobility from areas is shaped diverse socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, political factors; there may be 'trapped' populations as well those who prefer not move for social, cultural, reasons; can delayed forestalled through other adaptive measures. While exposed potentially migrating highlight significant threats low-lying at near coastlines, further research needed understand interactions localised social contexts, adaptation possibilities, (im)mobility decision-making.

Language: Английский

Citations

159
Reframing strategic, managed retreat for transformative climate adaptation DOI
Katharine J. Mach, A.R. Siders

Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 372(6548), P. 1294 - 1299

Published: June 17, 2021

Human societies will transform to address climate change and other stressors. How they choose depend on what societal values prioritize. Managed retreat can play a powerful role in expanding the range of possible futures that transformation could achieve articulating shape those futures. Consideration raises tensions about losses are unacceptable aspects maintained, purposefully altered, or allowed unaided. Here we integrate research retreat, transformational adaptation, damages losses, design decision support chart roadmap for strategic, managed retreat. At its core, this requires fundamental reconceptualization it means be strategic managed. The questions raised relevant adaptation science far beyond remit

Language: Английский

Citations

157
Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways DOI Creative Commons
Lena Reimann, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Lars E. Honsel

et al.

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Coastal areas are subject to hazards that can result in severe impacts due the high concentration of people and assets exposed locations. While climate-induced sea-level rise will exacerbate these course 21st century, future dynamics socioeconomic development play an important role driving – as well adaptation responses particular countries with rapid population growth low-lying coastal areas. Here, we synthesize current state knowledge related locations underlying trends affecting at continental global scales. Currently, 2.15 billion live near-coastal zone 898 million low-elevation globally. These numbers could increase 2.9 1.2 billion, respectively, depending on scenario (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]) considered. Nevertheless, although indicate a exposure hazards, they bear limited information about actual do not include vulnerability population. Based insights, stress need account for risk assessments, including vulnerability, additionally exploring potential feedbacks migration decisions. Last, propose action points work inform long-term planning managing risks.

Language: Английский

Citations

141
The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action DOI

Marina Romanello,

Maria Walawender, Shih-Che Hsu

et al.

The Lancet, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 404(10465), P. 1847 - 1896

Published: Oct. 30, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

127
Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise DOI Creative Commons
Mathew Hauer, Dean Hardy, Scott Kulp

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Nov. 25, 2021

Abstract The exposure of populations to sea-level rise (SLR) is a leading indicator assessing the impact future climate change on coastal regions. SLR exposes spectrum impacts with broad spatial and temporal heterogeneity, but assessments often narrowly define zone flooding. Here we show how choice results in differential estimates across space time. Further, apply spatio-temporal flood-modeling approach that integrates these zones assess annual probability population exposure. We our model United States demonstrate more robust assessment flooding from any given year. Our suggest explicit decisions regarding (and associated implication) will improve adaptation planning policies by indicating relative chance magnitude be affected SLR.

Language: Английский

Citations

117