Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
130(1)
Published: Dec. 27, 2024
Abstract
Snow
avalanches
pose
a
significant
threat
to
settlements
and
their
inhabitants.
Consequently,
hazard
maps
that
delineate
avalanche
runout
areas
serve
as
valuable
tools
for
mitigating
destructive
impact.
Dynamic
models
have
been
used
visualize
affected
by
avalanches;
however,
these
require
uncertain
inputs.
This
study
develops
probabilistic
quantifying
input
variables
through
probability
density
functions.
These
represent
the
of
model
outputs,
such
maximum
flow
thickness,
exceeding
specific
thresholds,
allowing
more
quantitative
assessments.
Three
uncertainty
quantification
methods—Monte
Carlo,
Latin
hypercube
sampling,
polynomial
chaos
quadrature
(PCQ)—are
employed
generate
snow
avalanches.
are
compared
with
reference
map
created
using
parameter
sets
cover
entire
space.
Among
three
methods,
PCQ
yields
most
accurate
results
given
number
simulations,
assuming
uniform
distribution
each
input.
The
optimal
settings,
which
deliver
superior
fewer
then
determined.
Additionally,
application
is
proposed
based
on
non‐uniform
distributions
without
requiring
extra
simulations.
approach
reduces
computational
cost
associated
creating
if
has
already
applied
case.
generates
two
types
maps:
one
considering
all
potential
ranges
during
season
distributions,
another
reflecting
account
in
near‐term
current
conditions.
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
130(1)
Published: Jan. 2, 2025
Abstract
Snowmelt
and
related
extreme
events
can
have
profound
natural
societal
impacts.
However,
the
studies
on
projected
changes
in
snow‐related
extremes
across
Tianshan
Mountains
(TS)
Pamir
regions
been
underexplored.
Utilizing
regional
climate
model
downscaling
bias‐corrected
CMIP6
data,
this
study
examined
snowmelt
water
available
for
runoff
(SM
ROS
,
rainfall
plus
snowmelt)
during
cold
seasons
these
historical
(1994–2014)
future
(2040–2060)
periods
under
shared
socioeconomic
pathway
(SSP)
scenarios
(SSP245
SSP585).
The
results
demonstrated
that
accumulated
was
to
rise
by
17.98%
20.36%,
whereas
SM
could
increase
26.97%
28.95%,
respectively,
SSP245
SSP585
scenarios.
Despite
relatively
minimal
snowmelt,
magnitude
of
daily
maximum
(10‐year
return
level)
28.04
mm
expected
15.32%
15.31%
scenarios,
especially
western
TS
exceeding
26%.
Meanwhile,
areas
with
a
50
over
13.5%.
A
notable
its
area
occupation
high
intensity
highlighted
an
increased
risk
rainfall‐driven
events.
absolute
snowfall
frequent
snow‐rain
phase
transitions
season
warming
(SSP245:
2.19°C
SSP585:
2.22°C)
benefits
high‐intensity
rain‐on‐snow
events,
leading
augmentation.
findings
emphasize
significant
role
rainfall‐trigger
exacerbating
climate.
Advances in Climate Change Research,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
15(3), P. 367 - 389
Published: June 1, 2024
High-Mountain
Asia
(HMA)
shows
a
remarkable
warming
tendency
and
divergent
trend
of
regional
precipitation
with
enhanced
meteorological
extremes.
The
rapid
thawing
the
HMA
cryosphere
may
alter
magnitude
frequency
nature
hazards.
This
study
reviews
impact
various
types
hazards
in
region,
including
their
phenomena,
mechanisms
impacts.
It
reveals
that:
1)
occurrences
extreme
rainfall,
heavy
snowfall,
drifting
snow
are
escalating;
accelerated
ice
melting
have
advanced
onset
increased
snowmelt
floods;
2)
elevating
trigger
factors,
such
as
glacier
debuttressing
shift
thermal
hydrological
regime
bedrock/snow/ice
interface
or
subsurface,
mass
flow
bedrock
landslide,
avalanche,
ice-rock
avalanches
detachment,
debris
will
become
more
severe;
3)
active-layer
detachment
retrogressive
thaw
slumps
slope
failures,
settlement
thermokarst
lake
damage
many
important
engineering
structures
infrastructure
permafrost
region;
4)
multi-hazards
cascading
hazard
HMA,
glacial
outburst
flood
(GLOF)
avalanche-induced
greatly
enlarge
destructive
power
primary
by
amplifying
its
volume,
mobility,
force;
5)
instability
sediment
supply
highland
areas
could
impose
remote
catastrophic
impacts
upon
lowland
regions,
threat
hydropower
security
future
water
shortage.
In
future,
ongoing
profoundly
weaken
multiple-phase
material
bedrock,
ice,
water,
soil,
enhance
activities
Compounding
high
prevail
HMA.
As
runoff
overpasses
peak
low
droughts
downstream
glacierized
mountain
regions
became
frequent
severe.
Addressing
escalating
region
requires
tackling
scientific
challenges,
understanding
multiscale
evolution
formation
mechanism
hazard-prone
systems,
coupling
thermo‒hydro‒mechanical
processes
multi-phase
flows,
predicting
catastrophes
arising
from
weather
climate
events,
comprehending
how
propagate
to
lowlands
due
change.
Heliyon,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
11(2), P. e41807 - e41807
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
The
article
examines
the
territory
of
East
Kazakhstan,
where
a
sharply
continental
climate
prevails
with
hot
summers,
cold
and
snowy
winters.
mountainous
regions
Kazakhstan
are
represented
by
Kalba,
Altai
Saur-Tarbagatay
ranges,
they
surrounded
rolling
plains.
highest
points
at
3000-4500
m.
On
average,
heights
in
range
900-1400
Despite
low
area,
problem
avalanche
safety
is
acute
region.
At
same
time,
situation
complicated
not
always
predictable
weather
events,
frequency
which
increasing
every
year.
These
include
heavy
precipitation,
sometimes
combined
sharp
warming
winter,
changing
wind
regime
territory.
To
identify
regional
changes
its
connection
avalanche-prone
region,
study
analyzed
meteorological
data
from
stations
located
directly
near
prone
locations
over
past
23
years
since
2001,
as
well
observations
areas
2005
information
on
registered
spontaneous
avalanches
2013
to
present.
This
first
presents
results
comprehensive
analysis
497
sites,
325
sites
pose
threat
life
infrastructure.
10
most
dangerous
have
been
selected
for
detailed
study.
was
carried
out
based
7
stations.
discusses
main
climatic
including
an
increase
air
temperature,
precipitation
change
conditions.
Data
snow
measuring
routes
covering
period
used
develop
probabilistic
forecasts.
use
statistical
methods
relationships
between
parameters
(temperature,
speed)
made
it
possible
build
models
predicting
situations.
were
five
(Bogatyrevskaya
site,
Prokhodnaya,
Sogornoye-Barlyk,
Tainty
Pikhtovka).
Based
these
data,
equations
dependence
developed,
improves
accuracy
forecasting
risks.
An
Statistica
program
showed
significant
relationship
sudden
warming,
increased
speed
precedes
avalanches.
Regression
approximation
confidence
coefficient
average
values
studied
obtained.
make
only
establish
patterns,
but
also
propose
effective
monitoring
hazard
According
analysis,
features
identified,
comparison
previously
known
works
Kazakhstan.
interrelation
characteristics
region
shown.
obtained
will
help
us
better
understand
manifestations
change.
important
task
further
activity
correct
design
collection
database.
authors
identified
objects
(entities).
ontological
database
model
(Entity
Relationship
Diagram)
constructed.
it,
has
created
system
Advances in Climate Change Research,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
15(3), P. 442 - 451
Published: June 1, 2024
Climate
change
alters
snowpack
evolution,
which
in
turn
influences
the
likelihood
of
snow
avalanches
and
flood
risks.
The
lack
systemic
observational
data
on
key
characteristics
high
mountains
remains
a
scientific
challenge
terms
systematically
elucidating
dynamic
chain
variations
climate–snowpack–snow
disasters.
This
restricts
our
understanding
poses
challenges
prediction
snow-related
disaster
As
such,
this
study
analysed
temperature
snowfall
physical
snowpacks
based
ground-based
observations
from
Kunse
River
Valley
situated
Tianshan
Mountains
1967
to
2021.
results
reveal
that
increased
significantly
by
0.32
°C
per
decade
(p
<
0.01)
during
season,
along
with
more
extreme
events.
snow-cover
duration
was
observed
have
been
shortened
4.77
d
2021,
is
characterised
later
onset
earlier
snowmelt.
Concurrently,
average
maximum
depths
an
increase
peak
water
equivalent,
thus
indicating
higher
frequency
extremely
scarce
or
abundant
years.
low
gradient
snowmelt
dates
spring
lead
occurrences
floods
wet
avalanches.
risks
these
events
increase,
they
pose
greater
threats
farmlands,
road
transportation,
water–electricity
infrastructure
several
other
human
activities.
Therefore,
insights
are
critical
for
providing
vital
information
can
deepen
impact
climate
improve
management
strategies
prevention
mitigation.
Journal of Glaciology,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown, P. 1 - 44
Published: Jan. 15, 2025
An
abstract
is
not
available
for
this
content
so
a
preview
has
been
provided.
As
you
have
access
to
content,
full
PDF
via
the
'Save
PDF'
action
button.
Revue de géographie alpine,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
113-4
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Databases
of
natural
hazards
play
a
crucial
role
for
assessing
related
risks
and
in
mitigating
their
impacts
on
the
environment.
In
mountainous
regions
France,
potentially
destructive
events
are
both
numerous
diverse,
however,
only
limited
number
databases
containing
information
past
occurrences
exist.
The
database
RTM
service
(Restoration
Mountainous
Areas
service,
BD-RTM)
consolidates
such
through
multi-hazard
approach
over
an
extended
timeframe,
integrating
systematic
observations
retrospective
compilation
various
sources.
This
article
outlines
key
features
this
unique
database.
Focusing
Isère
department
(38),
which
records
highest
among
12
areas
covered
by
BD-RTM,
we
present
(1)
history
database,
particularly
origins
data
its
structural
framework,
(2)
richness
diversity
recorded
information.
On
31st
December
2023,
BD-RTM
had
documented
5,888
department,
with
nearly
70%
consisting
torrential
floods
landslides.
Furthermore,
85%
resulted
damages.
A
notable
increase
frequency
is
evident
from
2000s
onwards,
average
85
annually
since
that
time.
All
accessible
further
spatial
temporal
analyses,
including
statistical
historical
assessments,
as
well
integration
other
Transactions in GIS,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
29(1)
Published: Jan. 30, 2025
ABSTRACT
Snow‐
and
ice‐related
hazards
pose
significant
threats
in
high‐altitude
high‐latitude
regions,
impacting
natural
environments
human
infrastructure.
Given
their
sensitivity
to
climate
change,
it
is
crucial
understand
the
underlying
mechanisms
of
these
context
global
warming
mitigate
mountain
disaster
risk.
This
study
focuses
on
Rangda
catchment
along
CL
(–Tibet)
Railway
Qinghai–Tibet
Plateau,
a
region
prone
various
snow‐
hazards.
Through
field
investigations,
remote
sensing
analyses,
numerical
simulations,
we
characterized
spatial
distributions
potential
impacts
snow,
glaciers,
glacial
lakes
catchment.
The
hosts
28
glaciers
covering
53.05
km
2
five
lakes,
with
Zala
Lake
Dalong
being
prominent.
Notably,
has
undergone
expansion
over
past
three
decades.
entire
snow‐covered
varying
depths
during
winter
spring,
contributing
frequent
snow
avalanches
icefalls,
particularly
those
originating
from
Zangburi
Glacier.
These
events
have
affected
makeshift
road
that
used
for
construction
threat
auxiliary
tunnel
exits
Bridge.
Although
no
current
debris
flows
been
observed,
lake
outburst
floods
exists
due
ongoing
retreat.
Further
simulations
exposure
analyses
indicate
primary
disaster‐causing
patterns
are
avalanches,
icefall–dam–outburst–debris
chains,
flows.
also
examined
risks
faced
by
engineering
facilities
ST
railway
proposes
reduction
strategies.
research
enhances
understanding
provides
insights
mitigation
strategies
Railway.
