Geophysical Research Letters,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
52(8)
Published: April 13, 2025
Abstract
Increasing
hydrologic
volatility—more
extreme
rain,
and
larger
variations
between
wet
dry
years—has
become
apparent
in
some
regions,
but
few
data
exist
to
determine
how
intensifying
extremes
affect
sedimentary
systems.
Using
uniquely
high‐resolution
records
of
fluvial
suspended
sediment
coastal
morphology,
we
quantify
responses
from
a
steep,
357‐km
2
watershed
California
under
conditions.
In
years
with
multiple
2‐
10‐year
floods,
coarsened
significantly
as
the
season
progressed,
late‐season
floods
delivering
dominantly
sand‐sized
material
coast.
Greater
coarser
supply
wetter
antecedent
conditions
affected
nearshore
geomorphic
evolution
for
4–5
years.
The
changes
documented
point
an
increasing
role
sediment‐related
hazards
(flooding
hillslope
erosion)
resources
(nearshore
accretion)
seasons
intensify.
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
16(1)
Published: April 1, 2025
Abstract
Recent
advancements
in
machine
learning
(ML)
have
expanded
the
potential
use
across
scientific
applications,
including
weather
and
hazard
forecasting.
The
ability
of
these
methods
to
extract
information
from
diverse
novel
data
types
enables
transition
forecasting
fire
weather,
predicting
actual
activity.
In
this
study
we
demonstrate
that
shift
is
feasible
also
within
an
operational
context.
Traditional
forecasts
tend
over
predict
high
danger,
particularly
fuel
limited
biomes,
often
resulting
false
alarms.
By
using
on
characteristics,
ignitions
observed
activity,
data-driven
predictions
reduce
false-alarm
rate
high-danger
forecasts,
enhancing
their
accuracy.
This
made
possible
by
quality
global
datasets
evolution
detection.
We
find
input
more
important
when
improving
than
complexity
ML
architecture.
While
focus
justified,
our
findings
highlight
importance
investing
high-quality
and,
where
necessary
create
it
through
physical
models.
Neglecting
aspect
would
undermine
gains
ML-based
approaches,
emphasizing
essential
achieve
meaningful
progress
activity
ABSTRACT
Changes
in
“blue
water”,
which
is
the
total
supply
of
fresh
water
available
for
human
extraction
over
land,
are
quite
closely
related
to
changes
runoff
or
equivalently
precipitation
minus
evaporation,
.
This
article
examines
how
climate
change‐driven
recent
past
and
future
regional
cycle
relate
blue
availability
demand.
Although
at
largest
scales
theoretical
numerical
model
predictions
broad
agreement
with
observations,
continental
below
models
predict
large
ranges
possible
especially
scale
individual
river
catchments
shorter
timescale
subseasonal
floods
droughts.
Nevertheless,
it
expected
that
occurrence
severity
will
increase
droughts
may
increase,
possibly
compounded
by
human‐driven
non‐climatic
such
as
land
use,
dam
impoundment,
irrigation
groundwater.
Contemporary
assessments
increases
21st
century
many
highly‐populated
regions
unlikely
be
sustainable
given
projections
To
reduce
uncertainty
predictions,
there
an
urgent
need
improve
modeling
atmospheric,
surface
processes
these
components
coupled.
should
supported
maintaining
observing
network
expanding
measurements
surface,
oceanic
atmospheric
variables.
includes
development
satellite
observations
stable
multiple
decades
suitable
building
reanalysis
datasets
appropriate
evaluation.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
52(8)
Published: April 13, 2025
Abstract
Increasing
hydrologic
volatility—more
extreme
rain,
and
larger
variations
between
wet
dry
years—has
become
apparent
in
some
regions,
but
few
data
exist
to
determine
how
intensifying
extremes
affect
sedimentary
systems.
Using
uniquely
high‐resolution
records
of
fluvial
suspended
sediment
coastal
morphology,
we
quantify
responses
from
a
steep,
357‐km
2
watershed
California
under
conditions.
In
years
with
multiple
2‐
10‐year
floods,
coarsened
significantly
as
the
season
progressed,
late‐season
floods
delivering
dominantly
sand‐sized
material
coast.
Greater
coarser
supply
wetter
antecedent
conditions
affected
nearshore
geomorphic
evolution
for
4–5
years.
The
changes
documented
point
an
increasing
role
sediment‐related
hazards
(flooding
hillslope
erosion)
resources
(nearshore
accretion)
seasons
intensify.
