Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs DOI Creative Commons
Yating Zhang, Bilal M. Ayyub, Juan F. Fung

et al.

Resilient Cities and Structures, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 103 - 113

Published: March 1, 2024

In the last decade, detection and attribution science that links climate change to extreme weather events has emerged as a growing field of research with an increasing body literature. This paper overviews methods for event (EEA) discusses new insights EEA provides infrastructure adaptation. We found can inform stakeholders about current risk, support vulnerability-based hazard-based adaptations, assist in development cost-effective adaptation strategies, enhance justice equity allocation resources. As engineering practice shifts from retrospective approach proactive, forward-looking risk management strategy, be used together projections comprehensiveness decision making, including planning preparing unprecedented events. Additionally, assessment more useful when exposure vulnerability communities past are analyzed, future changes probability evaluated. Given large uncertainties inherent projections, should examine sensitivity design model uncertainties, adapt practice, building codes, uncertain conditions. While this study focuses on planning, also tool informing enhancing decisions related mitigation.

Language: Английский

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems DOI Creative Commons
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó

et al.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(9), P. 3173 - 3205

Published: Sept. 23, 2024

Abstract. Droughts are often long-lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perceptions management of droughts their event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydrological–ecological–social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different timescales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately, then study system systems. Our analysis is based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River basin in USA, northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: impact recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, high resilience–big shock. The result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research preconditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase societal institutional memory. This will help us to deal complex pathways mitigation.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Drought threatens agroforestry landscapes and dryland livelihoods in a North African hotspot of environmental change DOI Creative Commons
Laura Kmoch,

Aimad Bou-lahriss,

Tobías Plieninger

et al.

Landscape and Urban Planning, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 245, P. 105022 - 105022

Published: Feb. 8, 2024

Dryland agroforestry is often hailed as a nature-based solution for rural people's water- and climate-related struggles, yet appraisals of traditional practices interventions in Maghreb countries are scant. In this study, we appraise whether how delivers to Moroccan farmers' plight with drought. Through an analysis landscape observations, 75 qualitative interviews, six group discussions, show that the region's mountain residents risk losing their livelihoods due intersecting impacts failed water governance, maladaptation, Water scarcity has hampered production landscapes recent years, but neither nor newly planted tree stands provide communities secure income times little rainfall. A key agricultural sector policy – Green Morocco Plan incentivized water-intensive plantations, which added pressure on groundwater resources more-affluent farmers built wells. However, it done support most coping or adapting evolving risks. Farmers' aspirations knowledge could offer policy-relevant insights co-create viable plan sustainable change tree-crop landscapes. Identified entry points include governance greater justice public spending tap potential local catchments establish drought-tolerant crops. Our results underscore urgent need regional planning design North Africa's drought-stricken farming communities. without attention everyday vulnerabilities resulting water-justice implications, adaptation-oriented tree-planting schemes misplaced may well set people off maladaptive routes.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems DOI Creative Commons
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó

et al.

Published: Feb. 20, 2024

Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception management of droughts their is event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydro-eco-social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different time scales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately; then study system systems. Our analysis based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River Basin in US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine Northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; High resilience, big shock. The ecological result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research pre-conditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, argue continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase institutional memory to deal complex pathways adaptation.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Spatial distribution of heat vulnerability in Toronto, Canada DOI

Shuchen Bu,

Karen L. Smith,

Fadi Masoud

et al.

Urban Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 54, P. 101838 - 101838

Published: Feb. 27, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs DOI Creative Commons
Yating Zhang, Bilal M. Ayyub, Juan F. Fung

et al.

Resilient Cities and Structures, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 103 - 113

Published: March 1, 2024

In the last decade, detection and attribution science that links climate change to extreme weather events has emerged as a growing field of research with an increasing body literature. This paper overviews methods for event (EEA) discusses new insights EEA provides infrastructure adaptation. We found can inform stakeholders about current risk, support vulnerability-based hazard-based adaptations, assist in development cost-effective adaptation strategies, enhance justice equity allocation resources. As engineering practice shifts from retrospective approach proactive, forward-looking risk management strategy, be used together projections comprehensiveness decision making, including planning preparing unprecedented events. Additionally, assessment more useful when exposure vulnerability communities past are analyzed, future changes probability evaluated. Given large uncertainties inherent projections, should examine sensitivity design model uncertainties, adapt practice, building codes, uncertain conditions. While this study focuses on planning, also tool informing enhancing decisions related mitigation.

Language: Английский

Citations

6