Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6)

Published: Aug. 16, 2021

Abstract Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected reduce projection uncertainty related convection parameterizations found in most models. A recent surge CPRCM decadal over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led important insights into advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets spatial temporal (~1 km; ~1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value CPRCMs. With an improved coordination frame ongoing international initiatives, production ensembles provide more robust projections better identification their associated uncertainties. review paper presents overview methodology latest research on current future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage these highlighted. ends by proposing next steps could be accomplished continue exploiting full potential article categorized under: Climate Models Modeling > Earth System

Language: Английский

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Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 909, P. 168388 - 168388

Published: Nov. 11, 2023

The direct impacts of climate change involve a multitude phenomena, including rising sea levels, intensified severe weather events such as droughts and flooding, increased temperatures leading to wildfires, unpredictable fluctuations in rainfall. This comprehensive review intends examine firstly the probable consequences on extreme drought, flood wildfire. subsequently examines release transformation contaminants terrestrial, aquatic, atmospheric environments response driven by change. While drought influence dynamics inorganic organic terrestrial aquatic environments, thereby influencing their mobility transport, wildfire results spread atmosphere. There is nascent awareness change's change-induced environmental scientific community decision-making processes. remediation industry, particular, lags behind adopting adaptive measures for managing contaminated affected events. However, recognizing need assessment represents pivotal first step towards fostering more practices management environments. We highlight urgency collaboration between chemists experts, emphasizing importance jointly assessing fate rigorous action augment risk strategies safeguard health our environment.

Language: Английский

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Adapting cities to the surge: A comprehensive review of climate-induced urban flooding

Results in Engineering, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 22, P. 102123 - 102123

Published: April 9, 2024

Climate change is a serious global issue causing more extreme weather patterns, resulting in frequent and severe events like urban flooding. This review explores the connection between climate flooding, offering statistical, scientific, advanced perspectives. Analyses of precipitation patterns show clear changes, establishing strong link heightened intensity rainfall events. Hydrological modeling case studies provide compelling scientific evidence attributing flooding to climate-induced changes. Urban infrastructure, including transportation networks critical facilities, increasingly vulnerable, worsening impact on people's lives businesses. Examining adaptation strategies, highlights need for resilient planning integration green infrastructure. Additionally, it delves into role technologies, such as artificial intelligence, remote sensing, predictive modeling, improving flood prediction, monitoring, management. The socio-economic implications are discussed, emphasizing unequal vulnerability importance inclusive policies. In conclusion, stresses urgency addressing through holistic analysis statistical trends, evidence, infrastructure vulnerabilities, adaptive measures. technologies comprehensive understanding essential developing effective, strategies. serves valuable resource, insights policymakers, researchers, practitioners striving climate-resilient futures amid escalating impacts.

Language: Английский

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Fire effects on geomorphic processes

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(7), P. 486 - 503

Published: May 30, 2024

Language: Английский

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Incorporating non-stationarity from climate change into rainfall frequency and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 616, P. 128757 - 128757

Published: Nov. 25, 2022

Language: Английский

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Flood risk assessment and mitigation for metro stations: An evidential-reasoning-based optimality approach considering uncertainty of subjective parameters

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 238, P. 109453 - 109453

Published: June 15, 2023

Language: Английский

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Non-stationarity in extreme rainfalls across Australia

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 624, P. 129872 - 129872

Published: June 27, 2023

Future flooding is likely to exceed current design flood levels which are based on historical extreme rainfall characteristics. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship explains the intensification of rainfalls as approximately 7% per one degree warming atmospheric water holding capacity increases with temperature. Therefore, prepare for a future warmer climate, we need develop methodologies project intensities across range durations and exceedance probabilities used in engineering design. However, studies that have investigated changes Australia had disparate results not spatially or temporally comprehensive – hampering our understanding different probabilities. This study investigates impact climate change from annual maximum 1 100-year storm continent Australia. We find short duration (<1 hour) greater than long (>1 maxima 1967 2021. These consistent regardless data period set chosen analysis. estimate events rarer through fitting non-stationary Generalize Extreme Value models. severity increased more frequent events. Further, identify parameterisation model location scale parameters capture historic quantiles physical intensification, empirical quantile trends. conclude trends best represented by models incorporate both parameters, solely varying either parameters.

Language: Английский

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A Method to Assess and Explain Changes in Sub‐Daily Precipitation Return Levels From Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 60(5)

Published: May 1, 2024

Abstract Reliable projections of extreme future precipitation are fundamental for risk management and adaptation strategies. Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve large convective systems represent sub‐daily extremes more realistically than coarser resolution models, but present short records due to the high computational costs. Here, we evaluate potential a non‐asymptotic approach, Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) provide information on change return levels based CPM simulations. We focus complex‐orography area in North Eastern Italy use three 10‐year time periods COSMO‐crCLIM simulations (2.2 km resolution) under RCP8.5 scenario. When compared block r‐maxima approach currently used similar applications, proposed shows reduced uncertainty rare level estimates (about 5%–10% smaller confidence interval) can improve quantification changes from these their statistical significance 1–24 hr durations. The show an interesting spatial organization associated with orography, significant positive located at elevations. These tend increase increasing period decreasing duration. Because SMEV separate roles event intensity occurrence, it allows physical interpretations changes. suggest that approaches permit within available runs.

Language: Английский

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Thermo-economic analysis and dynamic simulation of a novel layout of a renewable energy community for an existing residential district in Italy

Energy Conversion and Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 313, P. 118582 - 118582

Published: June 12, 2024

Language: Английский

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Projections of Heavy Precipitation Characteristics Over the Greater Alpine Region Using a Kilometer–Scale Climate Model Ensemble

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 11, 2025

Abstract This study presents a detailed analysis of the CORDEX‐FPS multi‐model ensemble convection‐permitting climate simulations over greater Alpine region. These cover 10‐year time slices and were obtained by downscaling global model (GCM) projections, using regional models (RCMs) kilometer‐scale (CPMs). Our area agrees with previous studies in terms projected summer precipitation changes for end century, particular regarding decrease mean increases hourly intensities. In addition, we assess different subregions, provide analyses at monthly seasonal basis temporal aggregations ranging from 1 hr to 5 days, address extreme indices, present validation against an Alpine‐scale daily data set product based on 3 Doppler radars. The evaluation reveals that CPMs show refinement spatial patterns, reduce overestimation frequency, better capture intense characteristics. improvements are especially apparent sub‐daily scale season. Convection‐Permitting Model projections increase intensity all seasons across regions, except Mediterranean summer. qualitatively agree, despite significant differences GCMs circulation changes, suggesting heavy events is primarily due thermodynamic effects. We also hypothesis explaining why relative percentiles similar between RCMs, large biases RCMs.

Language: Английский

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