Predicting Forest Fire Area Growth Rate Using an Ensemble Algorithm

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 1493 - 1493

Published: Aug. 26, 2024

Due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions, the Liangshan Prefecture region is highly prone large fires. There an urgent need study growth rate of fire-burned areas fill research gap in this region. To address issue, uses Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm optimize hyperparameters eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, constructing a GWO-XGBoost model. Finally, optimized ensemble model (GWO-XGBoost) used create fire warning map for Sichuan Province, China, filling forest studies area. This comprehensively selects factors such as monthly climate, vegetation, terrain, socio–economic aspects incorporates reanalysis data from assessment systems Canada, United States, Australia features construct dataset. After collinearity tests filter redundant Pearson correlation analysis explore related burned area rate, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) oversample positive class samples. The GWO XGBoost which then compared with XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR) models. Model evaluation results showed that AUC value 0.8927, best-performing Using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method quantify contribution each influencing factor indicates Ignition Component (IC) States National Fire Danger Rating System contributes most, followed by average temperature population density. indicate southern part key prevention

Language: Английский

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State of Wildfires 2023–24

Published: June 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate – these are some of the reasons why

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(7)

Published: June 19, 2024

Background Climate projections signal longer fire seasons and an increase in the number of dangerous weather days for much world including Australia. Aims Here we argue that heatwaves, dynamic fire–atmosphere interactions increased fuel availability caused by drought will amplify potential behaviour well beyond based on calculations afternoon forest danger derived from climate models. Methods We review meteorological dynamics contributing to enhanced during drawing examples dynamical processes driving Australian Black Summer bushfires 2019–20. Results Key identified include: nocturnal low-level jets, deep, unstable planetary boundary layers coupling. Conclusions The future scenario contend is long windows multi-day events where overnight suppression less effective perimeters expand continuously aggressively over multiple nights. Implications Greater activity present strategic tactical challenges management agencies having resourcing work, manage personnel fatigue revise training identify conditions conducive unusually active overnight. Effective messaging be critical minimise accidental ignition heatwaves alert community changing environment

Language: Английский

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A comment on the use of visually assessed fuel hazard ratings and scores for Australian fire management and research

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(7)

Published: July 2, 2024

Background Assessment of fuel hazard has become the dominant method describing Australian forest complexes, despite a lack evidence supporting veracity its underpinning assumptions. Aims To analyse and discuss merits ratings scores in representing measurable characteristics, such as load fire behaviour potential. Methods Published findings were reviewed, available data analysed to investigate validity assessment concepts. Key results Multiple published studies showed methods be subjective non-replicable. All shows no relationship between quantity. No potential was found. Conclusions The principles use for shown unfounded. cannot converted into physical characteristics or potential, application management is unwarranted.

Language: Английский

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The 1986 Annaburroo experimental grassland fires: data

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(5)

Published: May 12, 2024

Background In 1986, CSIRO conducted a large program of experimental fires in grassland at Annaburroo Station, Northern Territory, Australia, with the objective quantifying effect fuel condition (load and height) on fire behaviour. Aims This paper provides data collected during this program, representing unique set observations measurements large, free-burning multi-factor design. Methods Data are collated by burn plot, providing detailed weather (wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity), state (load, height, moisture content, curing) behaviour (rate spread, flame depth, head width), as well processed information (e.g. steady-state rate spread). availability The made available for free download Access Portal (https://data.csiro.au/collection/csiro:58746) include metadata descriptions their structure, also provided article. Conclusions We have researchers around world to use research under Creative Commons Attributions licence. It is hoped they will analyse these extract new innovative insights help improve our understanding wildland burning grass fuels.

Language: Английский

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Review period

Published: June 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km² burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Comment on essd-2024-218

Published: June 21, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km² burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Comment on essd-2024-218

Published: June 26, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km² burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Analysis of prevailing atmospheric conditions during wildfire events in the Indian Himalayan region

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 16, 2024

Abstract Wildfire incidents have seen an exponential rise in the past few decades India, particularly over Indian Himalayan region, which has led to a huge loss of life and property. To mitigate manage impact wildfires, better understanding key physical atmospheric processes conducive spread wildfires is required. This study aims analyze conditions associated with propagation state Uttarakhand (India). For this, wildfire burned‐area data from (India) State Forest Department, in‐situ precipitation information India Meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture) European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 Global Land Data Assimilation System datasets years 2000–2022 been critically analyzed infer cause unprecedented Uttarakhand. The analysis suggests that strength El Niño Southern Oscillation Ocean Dipole phases along pattern pre‐fire season due western disturbances are dominant factors fires. Further, bimodal distribution vapor pressure deficit, having peak during fire post‐monsoon period, indicates increased dryness fuels susceptibility vegetation wildfires. These findings could be utilized impacts vulnerable state.

Language: Английский

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