Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: July 4, 2016

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through current century. Climate simulations earth system models necessary this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can used by models. Downscaling methods observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases climate simulations. We present unified datasets of for North America 21 ka BP 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages monthly data until 1950AD, average climates 1950-2005 AD, 2010 also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic 12 IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. variables include primary derived bioclimatic variables. These provide a common set suitable seamlessly modelling effects change on species distributions diversity.

Language: Английский

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11,500 y of human–clam relationships provide long-term context for intertidal management in the Salish Sea, British Columbia

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 116(44), P. 22106 - 22114

Published: Oct. 14, 2019

Significance Climate change, habitat loss, and overharvesting are threatening coastal ecosystems worldwide. A less widely recognized threat is the decline in Indigenous mariculture practices. These practices, such as building of clam gardens, structured for millennia. Teasing out dynamic intertwined relationships between humans culturally valued species, clams, requires long-term paleoecological archaeological records. records requisite creating meaningful management targets applying traditional tending to increase productivity sustainability our foods today. Documenting these interactions ecosystems, we have done here, also counteracts erasure connections peoples their lands seas.

Language: Английский

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Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 113(51), P. 14552 - 14559

Published: Dec. 12, 2016

Endangered forest–grassland mosaics interspersed with expanding agriculture and silviculture occur across many parts of the world, including southern Brazilian highlands. This natural mosaic ecosystem is thought to reflect alternative stable states driven by threshold responses recruitment fire moisture regimes. The role adaptive human behavior in such systems remains understudied, despite its pervasiveness fact that ecosystems can exhibit complex dynamics. We develop a nonlinear mathematical model coupled human–environment dynamics social processes regarding conservation economic land valuation. Our objective better understand how respond changes ecological conditions. parameterized data on ecology, land-use profits, questionnaire results concerning landowner preferences values. find presently resides at crucial juncture where relatively small conditions generate wide variety possible outcomes, complete loss mosaics; large-amplitude, long-term oscillations between preclude stability; even exclusion agriculture/silviculture. In general, increasing time horizon used for decision making more likely maintain stability. contrast, inherent value either forests or grasslands induce large oscillations—especially forests—due feedback from rarity-based decisions. Given potential dynamics, empirically grounded dynamical models should play larger policy formulation ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Long-term dynamics of adaptive evolution in a globally important phytoplankton species to ocean acidification

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 2(7)

Published: July 1, 2016

Phytoplankton may evolve complex plasticity that can affect biogeochemically important traits such as calcification.

Language: Английский

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Tracing the effects of eutrophication on molluscan communities in sediment cores: outbreaks of an opportunistic species coincide with reduced bioturbation and high frequency of hypoxia in the Adriatic Sea

Paleobiology, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 44(4), P. 575 - 602

Published: Aug. 16, 2018

Abstract Estimating the effects and timing of anthropogenic impacts on composition macrobenthic communities is challenging, because early twentieth-century surveys are sparse corresponding intervals in sedimentary sequences mixed by bioturbation. Here, to assess eutrophication northern Adriatic Sea, we account for mixing with dating bivalve Corbula gibba at two stations high accumulation (Po prodelta) one station moderate (Isonzo prodelta). We find that, first, pervasively bioturbated muds typical highstand conditions deposited twentieth century were replaced relicts flood layers content total organic carbon (TOC) late Po prodelta. The shelly Isonzo prodelta amalgamated but also show an upward increase TOC. Second, C. shells shows that shift from characterized a decrease stratigraphic disorder temporal resolution assemblages ~25–50 years ~10–20 both regions. This reflects decline depth fully layer more than 20 cm few centimeters. Third, abundance opportunistic species loss formerly abundant, hypoxia-sensitive coincided bioturbation, higher preservation matter, frequency seasonal hypoxia depositional ecosystem regime occurred ca. a.d. 1950. Therefore, enhanced food supply overwhelmed oxygen depletion, even when hypoxic limited weeks per year Sea. Preservation trends molluscan events cores was reduced bioturbation century.

Language: Английский

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