Timing and magnitude of climate‐driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management DOI Creative Commons
Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes, Thomas L. Frölicher, Gabriel Reygondeau

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(7), P. 2312 - 2326

Published: Jan. 18, 2022

Abstract Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and high seas. The timescale these transboundary shifts determines how climate will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this by coupling a large ensemble simulation an Earth system model under emission scenario to dynamic population model. We show that 2030, 23% have shifted 78% world's EEZs experienced at least one stock. By end century, projections total 45% globally 81% waters with magnitude such reflected in changes catch proportion sharing global are projected experience average 59% stocks. Many countries highly dependent on for livelihood food security emerge as hotspots shifts. These characterized early important number Existing agreements need be assessed their capacity address social–ecological implications climate‐change‐driven Some adjusted limit potential conflict parties interest. Meanwhile, new anticipatory consider concerns associated uncertainties resilient change.

Language: Английский

Global Trends in Marine Plankton Diversity across Kingdoms of Life DOI Creative Commons
Federico M. Ibarbalz, Nicolas Henry, Manoela C. Brandão

et al.

Cell, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 179(5), P. 1084 - 1097.e21

Published: Nov. 1, 2019

The ocean is home to myriad small planktonic organisms that underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems. However, their spatial patterns diversity and underlying drivers remain poorly known, precluding projections responses global changes. Here we investigate latitudinal gradients predictors plankton across archaea, bacteria, eukaryotes, major virus clades using both molecular imaging data from Tara Oceans. We show a decline for most groups toward poles, mainly driven by decreasing temperatures. Projections into future suggest severe warming surface end 21st century could lead tropicalization in temperate polar regions. These changes may have multiple consequences ecosystem services are expected be particularly significant key areas carbon sequestration, fisheries, conservation. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Language: Английский

Citations

388
Scaling‐up biodiversity‐ecosystem functioning research DOI Creative Commons
Andrew Gonzalez, Rachel M. Germain, Diane S. Srivastava

et al.

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 23(4), P. 757 - 776

Published: Jan. 29, 2020

Abstract A rich body of knowledge links biodiversity to ecosystem functioning (BEF), but it is primarily focused on small scales. We review the current theory and identify six expectations for scale dependence in BEF relationship: (1) a nonlinear change slope relationship with spatial scale; (2) scale‐dependent between stability extent; (3) coexistence within among sites will result positive at larger scales; (4) temporal autocorrelation environmental variability affects species turnover thus (5) connectivity metacommunities generates relationships by affecting population synchrony local regional (6) scaling food web structure diversity generate functioning. suggest directions synthesis that combine approaches metaecosystem metacommunity ecology integrate cross‐scale feedbacks. Tests this may remote sensing generation networked experiments assess effects multiple also show how anthropogenic land cover alter relationship. New research role guide policy linking goals managing ecosystems.

Language: Английский

Citations

363
Borealization of the Arctic Ocean in Response to Anomalous Advection From Sub-Arctic Seas DOI Creative Commons
Igor V. Polyakov, Matthew B. Alkire, Bodil A. Bluhm

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: July 3, 2020

An important yet still not well documented aspect of recent changes in the Arctic Ocean is associated with advection anomalous sub-Arctic Atlantic- and Pacific-origin waters biota into polar basins, a process which we refer to as borealization. Using 37-year archive observations (1981–2017) demonstrate dramatically contrasting regional responses atlantification (that part borealization related progression anomalies from Atlantic sector seas Ocean) pacification (the counterpart influx Pacific waters). Particularly, show strong salinification upper Eurasian Basin since 2000, attendant reductions stratification, potentially altered nutrient fluxes primary production. These are closely upstream conditions. In contrast, strongly manifested Amerasian by waters, creating conditions favorable for increased heat freshwater content Beaufort Gyre halocline expansion species interior. Here, (overlying) layers driven local atmospheric processes resulting stronger wind/ice/ocean coupling, convergence within Gyre, thickening fresh surface layer, deepening nutricline deep chlorophyll maximum. Thus, divergent (Eurasian Basin) gyre responds altogether differently than does convergent (Amerasian climate forcing. Available geochemical data indicate general decrease concentrations Arctic-wide, except northern portions Makarov Amundsen Basins Chukchi Sea Canada Basin. circulation pathways specific water masses, utilization nutrients regions, may control availability Ocean. Model-based evaluation trajectory system future suggests that will continue under scenarios global warming. Results this synthesis further our understanding Ocean’s complex sometimes non-intuitive response forcing identifying new feedbacks atmosphere-ice-ocean plays key role.

Language: Английский

Citations

320
Phytoplankton dynamics in a changing Arctic Ocean DOI
Mathieu Ardyna, Kevin R. Arrigo

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(10), P. 892 - 903

Published: Sept. 25, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

313
Faster Atlantic currents drive poleward expansion of temperate phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean DOI Creative Commons
Laurent Oziel, Alberto Baudena, Mathieu Ardyna

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: April 6, 2020

Abstract The Arctic marine biome, shrinking with increasing temperature and receding sea-ice cover, is tightly connected to lower latitudes through the North Atlantic. By flowing northward European Corridor (the main gateway where 80% of in- outflow takes place), Atlantic Waters transport most ocean heat, but also nutrients planktonic organisms toward Ocean. Using satellite-derived altimetry observations, we reveal an increase, up two-fold, in current surface velocities over last 24 years. More importantly, show evidence that its variability shape spatial distribution coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi ( Ehux ), a tracer for temperate ecosystems. We further demonstrate bio-advection, rather than water as previously assumed, major mechanism responsible recent poleward intrusions southern species like . Our findings confirm biological physical “Atlantification” Ocean potential alterations food web biogeochemical cycles.

Language: Английский

Citations

188
Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins DOI
Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz, Derek P. Tittensor, Julia L. Blanchard

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 459 - 472

Published: Nov. 8, 2018

Abstract Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter ecosystem structure function with associated socio‐economic services, fisheries, fishery‐dependent societies. Yet how these may play out among basins over the 21st century remains unclear, most projections coming from single models that do not adequately capture range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six within Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish‐MIP) analyze responses animal biomass in all major contrasting climate scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total declined an ensemble mean 15%–30% (±12%–17%) North South Atlantic Pacific, Indian Ocean 2100, whereas polar experienced 20%–80% (±35%–200%) increase. Uncertainty disagreement were greatest Arctic smallest Pacific Ocean. Projected reduced under low (RCP2.6) scenario. RCP2.6 RCP8.5, highly correlated net production negatively projected sea surface temperature increases across except oceans. was shift as concentrated different size‐classes highlight mitigation measures could moderate reducing declines Atlantic, basins. The individual emphasizes importance approach assessing uncertainty future change.

Language: Английский

Citations

185
Adjusting the lens of invasion biology to focus on the impacts of climate-driven range shifts DOI
Piper D. Wallingford, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jenica M. Allen

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(5), P. 398 - 405

Published: April 30, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

177
Physical manifestations and ecological implications of Arctic Atlantification DOI
Randi Ingvaldsen, Karen M. Assmann, Raul Primicerio

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(12), P. 874 - 889

Published: Nov. 16, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

170
Trait-based approaches to global change ecology: moving from description to prediction DOI Creative Commons
Stephanie Green, Cole B. Brookson, Natasha A. Hardy

et al.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 289(1971)

Published: March 16, 2022

Trait-based approaches are increasingly recognized as a tool for understanding ecosystem re-assembly and function under intensifying global change. Here we synthesize trait-based research globally (

Language: Английский

Citations

107
Three decades of ocean warming impacts on marine ecosystems: A review and perspective DOI Creative Commons
Roberto M. Venegas, Jorge Acevedo, Eric A. Treml

et al.

Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 212, P. 105318 - 105318

Published: Aug. 11, 2023

Ocean warming, primarily resulting from the escalating levels of greenhouse gases in atmosphere, leads to a rise temperature Earth's oceans. These act as heat-trapping agents, contributing overall phenomenon global warming. In order gain comprehensive understanding how ocean warming impacts marine ecosystems, thorough literature review was conducted over span three decades, involving 2484 initial publications. The systematic screening facilitated by utilizing Abstrackr's web-based application efficiently select relevant abstracts, final list 797 publications aligned with study's objectives. Since advent industrial revolution, gas emissions have witnessed an exponential surge, leading cumulative increase atmospheric temperatures at average rate 0.08 °C (0.14 °F) per decade since 1880. Over past 50 years, has emerged primary heat reservoir, absorbing and distributing majority more than 90% occurring within its waters. Between 1950 2020, sea surface (SST) increased 0.11 (0.19 °F). consequences extend significantly environment climate. It induces expansion ocean, alters stratification currents, diminishes oxygen availability, elevates levels, intensifies hurricanes storms. also affects species' physiology, abundance, distribution, trophic interactions, survival, mortality can cause stress for human societies that depend on impacted resources. is projected 2 4 4–8 times under climate scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1–2.6 5–8.5, respectively, additional 0.6–2.0 added end century. We summarize detailed negative or positive responses taxonomic groups. provide critical information help stakeholders, scientists, managers, decision-makers mitigate adapt while improving biodiversity conservation sustainability ecosystems.

Language: Английский

Citations

64