Climate match is key to predict range expansion of the world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates DOI
Yuanbao Du, Xuyu Wang, Sadia Ashraf

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract Understanding the determinants of range expansion invasive alien species is crucial for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Nevertheless, we still lack a global picture potential factors influencing invaded across taxonomic groups, especially world's worst invaders with high ecological economic impacts. Here, by extensively collecting data on 363 distributional ranges 19 terrestrial vertebrates 135 administrative jurisdictions, observed remarkable variations in groups. After controlling geographic pseudoreplicates, model averaging analyses based generalized additive mixed‐effect models showed that regions having climates more similar to those their native tended undergo larger expansion. In addition, as proxies propagule pressure human‐assisted transportation, number introduction events road network density were also important predictors facilitating Further variance partitioning validated predominant role climate match explaining Our study demonstrated could be prioritized prevent spread under sustained change.

Language: Английский

Why Are Invasive Plants Successful? DOI Creative Commons
Margherita Gioria, Philip E. Hulme, David M. Richardson

et al.

Annual Review of Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 74(1), P. 635 - 670

Published: Feb. 8, 2023

Plant invasions, a byproduct of globalization, are increasing worldwide. Because their ecological and economic impacts, considerable efforts have been made to understand predict the success non-native plants. Numerous frameworks, hypotheses, theories advanced conceptualize interactions multiple drivers context dependence invasion with aim achieving robust explanations predictive power. We review these from community-level perspective rather than biogeographical one, focusing on terrestrial systems, explore roles intrinsic plant properties in determining species invasiveness, as well effects biotic abiotic conditions mediating ecosystem invasibility (or resistance) evolutionary processes. also consider fundamental influences human-induced changes at scales ranging local global triggering, promoting, sustaining invasions discuss how could alter future trajectories.

Language: Английский

Citations

131

Naturalized alien floras still carry the legacy of European colonialism DOI
Bernd Lenzner, Guillaume Latombe, Anna Schertler

et al.

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 1723 - 1732

Published: Oct. 17, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

88

How many species will Earth lose to climate change? DOI
John J. Wiens,

Joseph Zelinka

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, explore might reach better Large‐scale studies estimated ~1% sampled species up ~70%, even when using same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst‐case estimates often converge near 20%–30% loss, many differences shrink similar assumptions. We perform a new recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss climate under scenarios. However, shows that are biased by excluding most vulnerable (those known from few localities), lead underestimating loss. Conversely, our analyses responses fundamental assumption species' climatic niches do not over time, frequently violated. For example, find mean rates positive thermal niche across ~0.02°C/year. Yet, still slower than projected ~3–4 fold. Finally, levels can combining group‐specific with projections richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary tentatively forecast climate‐related 14%–32% macroscopic in next ~50 years, including 3–6 million (or more) animal plant species, intermediate

Language: Английский

Citations

37

Observed and Potential Range Shifts of Native and Nonnative Species with Climate Change DOI
Bethany A. Bradley, Evelyn M. Beaury, Belinda Gallardo

et al.

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 55(1), P. 23 - 40

Published: June 17, 2024

There is broad concern that the range shifts of global flora and fauna will not keep up with climate change, increasing likelihood population declines extinctions. Many populations nonnative species already have advantages over native species, including widespread human-aided dispersal release from natural enemies. But do also an advantage change? Here, we review observed potential for globally. We show are expanding their ranges orders magnitude faster than reflecting both traits enable rapid spread ongoing human-mediated introduction. further large expansions likely due to a combination introduction broader climatic tolerances. With rates larger persist or expand, decided in changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

17

How useful are thermal vulnerability indices? DOI
Susana Clusella‐Trullas, Raquel A. Garcia, John S. Terblanche

et al.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 36(11), P. 1000 - 1010

Published: Aug. 9, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

88

Climatic niche shifts in introduced species DOI
Olivia Bates, Cléo Bertelsmeier

Current Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 31(19), P. R1252 - R1266

Published: Oct. 1, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

65

Rapid Evolution of Invasive Weeds Under Climate Change: Present Evidence and Future Research Needs DOI Creative Commons
David R. Cléments,

Vanessa L. Jones

Frontiers in Agronomy, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: April 7, 2021

Although evolution has been often seen as a gradual process through Darwinian lens, far more rapid evolutionary change observed in recent times. Recent examples documenting the potential speed of invasive plant have included: latitudinal flowering clines, life history shifts, or abrupt changes morphology. The timescales for such observations range from centuries down to <5 years. Invasive weeds provide good models changes, partly because exhibit unique mechanisms integral their success. For example, purging genetic load may enable plants adapt rapidly. Other include plasticity an evolved trait, hybridization, polyploidy, epigenetics, and clonal division labor. It is well-demonstrated that anthropogenic stressors habitat disturbance herbicide use work synergistically with climate fostering weed evolution. Changing temperatures, moisture regimes extreme events operate universally, but species are generally better equipped than native adapt. Research on this critical developing proactive management approaches anticipate new ecotypes adapted changing climatic conditions.

Language: Английский

Citations

59

Biological invasions reveal how niche change affects the transferability of species distribution models DOI Creative Commons
Chunlong Liu, Christian Wolter, Franck Courchamp

et al.

Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 103(8)

Published: April 7, 2022

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely applied to predict geographic ranges of species across space and time under the assumption niche conservatism (i.e., niches change very slowly). However, an increasing number studies reported evidence rapid changes time, which has sparked a widespread debate on whether SDMs can be transferred new areas or periods. Understanding how affect SDM transferability is thus crucial for future application improvement SDMs. Biological invasions provide opportunity address this question due geographically independent distributions diverse patterns between species' native introduced ranges. Here, we synthesized findings 217 from 50 elucidate effects spatial When was considered as categorical classification (conserved vs. shifted niches) in tests hypothesis, markedly lower with their range. measured numerical dynamics niches, high occupying similar environmental conditions both low more remaining unoccupied Surprisingly, presence points used developing turned out even stronger effect transferability. Our results reveal detrimental lack It necessary consider data quality improving SDMs, so that they better support conservation management policy decisions.

Language: Английский

Citations

46

Plants maintain climate fidelity in the face of dynamic climate change DOI Creative Commons
Yue Wang, Silvia Pineda‐Munoz, Jenny L. McGuire

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(7)

Published: Feb. 6, 2023

Plants will experience considerable changes in climate within their geographic ranges over the next several decades. They may respond by exhibiting niche flexibility and adapting to changing climates. Alternatively, plant taxa exhibit fidelity, shifting distributions track preferred Here, we examine responses of climates past 18,000 y evaluate extent which 16 dominant North America have exhibited fidelity. We find that 75% consistently fidelity y, even during times most extreme change. Of four do not three—elm ( Ulmus ), beech Fagus ash Fraxinus )—experience a long-term shift realized climatic between early Holocene present day. Plant migrate longer distances better maintain consistent niches across transition periods Today, communities with highest are found regions high topographic microclimate heterogeneity expected resilience, allowing plants locally adjust some amount However, once change buffering region is exceeded, these need broader landscapes but be challenged so because low habitat connectivity regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

27

The TOP-100 most dangerous invasive alien species in Northern Eurasia: invasion trends and species distribution modelling DOI Creative Commons
V. G. Petrosyan, F. A. Osipov, I. Yu. Feniova

et al.

NeoBiota, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 82, P. 23 - 56

Published: Feb. 2, 2023

Northern Eurasia is extensive and includes terrestrial aquatic ecosystems that cover several natural zones access to the seas of three oceans. As a result, it has been invaded by numerous invasive alien species (IAS) over large temporal spatial scales. The purpose this research was assess invasion trends construct distribution models for Russian TOP-100 most dangerous IAS. Environmentally suitable regions IAS were established based on attribute databases, datasets 169,709 occurrence records (SOR) raster layers environmental variables using modelling (MaxEnt). objectives (1) create databases SOR in Russia; 2) determine pathways, residence time, donor invasions; (3) main types distributions their relation time; (4) distinguish with highest richness have strong impact Russia. We found although invasions date back 400 years, number naturalized increased non-linearly past 76 years. list mainly represented unintentionally introduced (62%) which are characterized different introduction pathways. Species revealed 56 distributed locally, 26 regionally 18 widespread local, regional or times 55, 126 190 respectively. local can expand range into more extensively (expected increase 32%) than only 7%). procedure identifying hot/cold spots locations allowed us identify Our results integrated database we created provide framework studying scales be used development management plans

Language: Английский

Citations

25