Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 253 - 293

Published: March 1, 2021

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within Coupled phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range its outcomes by synthesizing results from participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to analysis strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly averages spatial patterns change for surface air temperature precipitation. also compare CMIP6 projections CMIP5 results, especially those scenarios that were designed provide continuity across CMIP phases, at same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well results. precipitation changes end century (2081–2100) encompassing Tier 1 experiments Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5) SSP1-1.9 spans larger compared CMIP5, due higher warming (by close 1.5 ∘C) reached upper 5 %–95 % envelope highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). is both wider radiative new cover sensitivities some models their predecessors. Spatial averaged over have familiar features, an variations confirms model structural be dominant source uncertainty. Models differ with respect size evolution internal variability measured individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These suggest tendency decrease along course this scenario, result will benefit further Benefits mitigation, all else being equal terms societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing developed SSP but which different degrees mitigation been applied. It found mild overshoot few decades around mid-century, represented SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect outcome 2100, return levels gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing possibility, however, other aspects may easily reversible). Central estimates means reach given level might biased inclusion shown faster historical period than observed. Those show reaching ∘C 1850–1900 baseline second half current decade, span between slow fast covering 20 27 years present. 2 early 2039 mean SSP5-8.5 late mid-2060s SSP1-2.6. considered (5 only until mid-2090s.

Language: Английский

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The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(18)

Published: May 4, 2022

In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heat wave outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. While it is clear that event was extreme, not obvious whether other areas in world have also events so far their natural variability. Using novel assessment extremes, we investigate how extreme this global context. Characterizing relative intensity an as number standard deviations from mean, remarkable, coming at over four deviations. Throughout globe, where reliable data, only five waves were found to be more since 1960. We find both reanalyses and climate projections, statistical extremes increases through time, line with mean shift due change. Regions that, by chance, had recent may less prepared for potentially imminent events.

Language: Английский

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Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(6628)

Published: Jan. 12, 2023

Climate projections by the fossil fuel industry have never been assessed. On basis of company records, we quantitatively evaluated all available global warming documented by-and in many cases modeled by-Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 2003. We find that most their accurately forecast is consistent with subsequent observations. Their were also with, at least as skillful as, those independent academic government models. Exxon correctly rejected prospect a coming ice age, predicted when human-caused would first be detected, reasonably estimated "carbon budget" for holding below 2°C. each these points, however, company's public statements about climate science contradicted its own scientific data.

Language: Английский

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Volcanic effects on climate: recent advances and future avenues

Bulletin of Volcanology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 84(5)

Published: May 1, 2022

Abstract Volcanic eruptions have long been studied for their wide range of climatic effects. Although global-scale impacts following the formation stratospheric sulfate aerosol are well understood, many aspects evolution early volcanic cloud and regional uncertain. In last twenty years, several advances made, mainly due to improved satellite measurements observations enabling effects small-magnitude be quantified, new proxy reconstructions used investigate impact past eruptions, state-of-the-art aerosol-climate modelling that has led insights on how affect climate. Looking future, knowledge gaps include role co-emissions in plumes, tropical hydroclimate Northern Hemisphere winter climate, long-term climate change. Future model development, dedicated intercomparison projects, interdisciplinary collaborations, application advanced statistical techniques will facilitate more complex detailed studies. Ensuring next large-magnitude explosive eruption is observed critical providing invaluable bridge remaining our understanding.

Language: Английский

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Global impacts of recent Southern Ocean cooling

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(30)

Published: July 17, 2023

Since the beginning of satellite era, Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled, despite global warming. While observed cooling has previously been reported to minimal impact on tropical Pacific, efficiency this teleconnection recently shown be mediated by subtropical cloud feedbacks that are highly model-dependent. Here, we conduct a coupled model intercomparison paired ensemble simulations under historical radiative forcing: one with freely evolving SSTs and other SST anomalies constrained follow observations. We reveal in stronger (and more realistic) feedbacks, including Antarctic sea-ice expansion, southeastern Pacific cooling, northward-shifted Hadley circulation, Aleutian low weakening, North Our results therefore suggest decrease might contributed cooler conditions eastern recent decades.

Language: Английский

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Global-scale analysis of socioeconomic impacts of coastal flooding over the 21st century

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: Jan. 16, 2023

Building on a global database of projected extreme coastal flooding over the coming century, an extensive analysis that accounts for both existing levels defences (structural measures) and two scenarios future changes in defence is undertaken to determine expected annual people affected ( EAPA ) damage EAD ). A range plausible climate change considered along with narratives socioeconomic change. We find no further adaptation, could increase from 34M people/year 2015 246M by 2100. Global 0.3% GDP today 2.9% If, however, are increased at rate which matches sea level, 2100, total reduced 119M will be factor almost three 1.1% GDP. The impacts such disproportionately affect developing world. By Asia, West Africa Egypt regions most impacted. If adaptation actions taken, many nations experience greater than 5% GDP, whilst all developed less 3%

Language: Английский

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Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(2), P. 152 - 155

Published: Jan. 22, 2024

Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine hampers the ability to adequately describe conditions across Arctic, thus biasing view on Arctic change. Here we benchmark pan-Arctic representativeness largest high-latitude research station network, INTERACT, with or without stations. Excluding stations lowers markedly, some biases being same magnitude as expected shifts caused by climate change end century.

Language: Английский

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Correcting model misspecification in physics-informed neural networks (PINNs)

Journal of Computational Physics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 505, P. 112918 - 112918

Published: March 9, 2024

Language: Английский

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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields and Exploring Adaptation Strategies in Northeast China

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Abstract Northeast China (NEC) is the most prominent grain‐producing region in China. However, it currently facing significant impacts from climate change. Since climate‐related on crop yield this are a major concern for society future, quantifying change yields NEC essential to ensure future food security. This study aimed quantify effects of and explore adaptation strategies using Crop Growth Model (PCSE) driven by downscaled CMIP6 projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios during 2015–2100. Results showed that there could be average reductions 21.4% maize 4.2% soybean year 2100 SSP585 compared 2015 baseline. The increasing temperature was dominant factor reducing yields, although elevated CO 2 precipitation offered partial compensation. optimized planting date brought noticeable benefits rice but had limited due heat stress. Relocating expansion eastward implementing earlier increased up 50% adversely decreased competition. enriches our comprehension agriculture, while also potential constraints evaluated adaptations. proposed adaptations may help mitigate projected declines other key agricultural regions across globe. Adjusting management practices capitalize changing factors shows promise as strategy sustaining production globally.

Language: Английский

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Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1), P. 35 - 50

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Language: Английский

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