Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 1648 - 1659

Published: Dec. 14, 2022

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred between 1986 2020, we find power-law relationship maximum size area burned, indicating large fires contribute disproportionally to activity Europe. We further show robust positive correlation summer vapor pressure deficit both (R2 = .19) burn severity .12). Europe's regimes are thus highly sensitive changes future climate, with the probability for extreme more than doubling end century. Our results suggest change will challenge current management approaches could undermine ability forests provide ecosystem services society.

Language: Английский

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Novel Disturbance Regimes and Ecological Responses

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 54(1), P. 63 - 83

Published: Aug. 4, 2023

Many natural disturbances have a strong climate forcing, and concern is rising about how ecosystems will respond to disturbance regimes which they are not adapted. Novelty can arise either as attributes of the regime (e.g., frequency, severity, duration) shift beyond their historical ranges variation or new agents present historically emerge. How much novelty ecological systems absorb whether changing lead novel outcomes determined by responses communities, also subject change. Powerful conceptual frameworks exist for anticipating consequences regimes, but these remain challenging apply in real-world settings. Nonlinear relationships tipping points, feedbacks) particular because disproportionate effects. Future research should quantify rise assess capacity changes. Novel be potent catalysts

Language: Английский

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Fire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 25, 2024

Abstract Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term “suppression bias” and use a simulation model highlight how bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation climate change. We illustrate attempting suppress all necessarily means fires will with severe less diverse ecological impacts, burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from or Over human lifespan, modeled exceed those change alone, suggesting may exert significant underappreciated influence on patterns fire Managing safely low moderate conditions thus critical tool address growing crisis.

Language: Английский

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A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(5), P. 333 - 350

Published: April 18, 2023

Language: Английский

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A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(6), P. 1109 - 1117

Published: April 29, 2024

Language: Английский

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Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 915, P. 170117 - 170117

Published: Jan. 19, 2024

Language: Английский

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The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long‐term forest dynamics

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 110(10), P. 2288 - 2307

Published: Aug. 26, 2022

To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation from stand to global scales, models forest dynamics that include tree demography are needed. Such now available for 50 years, but currently existing diversity model formulations and its evolution over time poorly documented. This hampers systematic assessments structural uncertainties in model-based studies.We conducted a meta-analysis 28 models, focusing were used past five years studies. We defined 52 attributes groups (basic assumptions, growth, regeneration, mortality soil moisture) characterized each according these attributes. Analyses complexity included hierarchical cluster analysis redundancy analysis.Model evolved considerably years. Increases largest growth processes, while modelled establishment processes increased only moderately. Model was lowest at scale, highest landscape scale. identified distinct clusters ranging very simple where specific attribute rendered complex manner feature high across all attributes.Most use today not balanced level with which they represent different processes. is result purposes, also reflects legacies code, modelers' preferences, 'prevailing spirit epoch'. The lack firm theories, laws 'first principles' ecology provides degrees freedom development, results responsibilities developers need rigorous evaluation.

Language: Английский

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Disturbances in North American boreal forest and Arctic tundra: impacts, interactions, and responses

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(11), P. 113001 - 113001

Published: Oct. 10, 2022

Abstract Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, human activity. Climate warming ABZ is occurring at over twice rate global average, as result extent, frequency, severity these are increasing rapidly. Disturbances span wide gradient spatiotemporal scales have varying impacts on ecosystem properties function. However, many relatively understudied different sensitivities to climate trajectories recovery, resulting considerable uncertainty land use vegetation dynamics interactions between disturbance types. Here we review current knowledge their precursors, impacts, temporal frequencies, spatial extents, severity. We also summarize feedbacks among characterize typical loss recovery response using satellite time-series. conclude summary critical data gaps identify priorities for future study.

Language: Английский

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Importance of conserving large and old trees to continuity of tree‐related microhabitats

Conservation Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(3)

Published: Feb. 8, 2023

Abstract Protecting structural features, such as tree‐related microhabitats (TreMs), is a cost‐effective tool crucial for biodiversity conservation applicable to large forested landscapes. Although the development of TreMs influenced by tree diameter, species, and vitality, relationships between age TreM profile remain poorly understood. Using tree‐ring‐based approach data set 8038 trees, we modeled effects age, site characteristics on richness occurrence across some most intact primary temperate forests in Europe, including mixed beech spruce forests. We observed an overall increase old trees both forest types. The specific groups was variably related but (e.g., epiphytes) had stronger positive relationship with species elevation. many were positively associated only two stands reacted exclusively (insect galleries exposed sapwood) without responding diameter. Thus, retention purposes based diameter appears be generally feasible rather low risk underrepresentation TreMs. Because greater affected development, placing emphasis conserving allowing them reach older ages, example, through establishment reserves, would better maintain continuity resource biodiversity. However, this may difficult due widespread intensification management global climate change.

Language: Английский

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Alternative states in the structure of mountain forests across the Alps and the role of disturbance and recovery

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 38(4), P. 933 - 947

Published: Jan. 25, 2023

Abstract Context Structure is a central dimension of forest ecosystems that closely linked to their capacity provide ecosystem services. Drivers such as changing disturbance regimes are increasingly altering structure, but large-scale characterizations structure and disturbance-mediated structural dynamics remain rare. Objectives Here, we characterize patterns in the horizontal vertical mountain forests test for presence alternative states. We investigate factors determining occurrence states role recovery transitions between Methods used spaceborne lidar (GEDI) across European Alps. combined GEDI-derived metrics with Landsat-based maps related topography, climate, landscape configuration, past disturbances. Results found two emerged consistently all types Alps: short, open-canopy (24%) tall, closed-canopy (76%). In absence disturbance, occurred at high elevations, edges, warm, dry sites. Disturbances caused transition conditions approximately 50% cases. Within 35 years after 72% recovered state, except submediterranean forests, where slow long-lasting more likely. Conclusions As climate warming increases disturbances causes thermophilization vegetation, could become likely future. Such restructuring pose challenge management, have lower capacities providing important

Language: Английский

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