Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1917)

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As planet rapidly warms, disruption ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating pace magnitude losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because non-uniform distribution biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are uneven populations across species’ thermal niche, or niche limits within an community, we show that in both cases, resulting clustering population tolerances drives nonlinear increases risk discuss how fundamental constraints physiologies geographical distributions give rise clustered tolerances, responses changing climates could variously temper, delay intensify dynamics. argue risks be null expectation under warming, highlight empirical research needed understand causes, commonness consequences better predict where, when why losses occur. This article part discussion meeting issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace’s legacy for biodiverse future’.

Language: Английский

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Habitat alteration or climate: What drives the densities of an invading ungulate?

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Abstract Anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change are two well‐known contributors to biodiversity loss through changes species distribution abundance; yet, disentangling the effects of these factors is often hindered by their inherent confound across both space time. We leveraged a contrast in associated with jurisdictional boundary between Canadian provinces evaluate relative spatial variation on white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) densities. White‐tailed an invading ungulate much North America, whose expansion into Canada's boreal forest implicated decline caribou Rangifer tarandus ), listed as Threatened Canada. estimated densities using 300 remote cameras 12 replicated 50 km 2 landscapes over 5 years. were significantly lower areas where winter severity was higher. For example, predicted declined from 1.83 0.35 deer/km when increased lowest value median value. There tendency for increase increasing alteration; however, magnitude this effect approximately half that climate. Our findings suggest primary driver populations; understanding mechanisms underpinning relationship requires further study over‐winter survival fecundity. Long‐term monitoring at invasion front needed drivers abundance time, particularly given unpredictability prevalence extreme weather events.

Language: Английский

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The Prominent Role of the Matrix in Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 55(1), P. 423 - 447

Published: Aug. 9, 2024

As the Anthropocene proceeds, matrix in which remaining habitats are embedded is an increasingly dominant component of altered landscapes. The appears to have diverse and far-reaching effects, yet our understanding causes consequences these effects remains limited. We first synthesize broad range perspectives on matrix, provide a generalized framing that captures perspectives, propose hypotheses for how why matters ecological evolutionary processes. then summarize evidence from experiments was manipulated. Nearly all revealed including changes local spillover, individual movement dispersal, use resources matrix. Finally, we discuss has been, should be, incorporated into conservation management suggest future issues advance research applications ecology, evolution, conservation.

Language: Английский

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Landscape modification and species traits shape seasonal wildlife community dynamics within an arid metropolitan region

Landscape and Urban Planning, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 259, P. 105346 - 105346

Published: March 23, 2025

Language: Английский

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Climate change impacts on altitudinal movements of society large mammals in the Alborz

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: April 13, 2025

This study examines the impact of climate change on altitudinal movement patterns and number individuals four large mammal species within Central Alborz Protected Area (CAPA) region Mountains, a biodiversity hotspot, over 23-year period (1999 to 2022). During warm season (May 25-September 29), temperatures were reported have increased by 2-2.5 °C, while relative humidity was observed decreased 4-4.5%. Compared past two decades (2000-2022), Caspian red deer initiate their annual high-altitude migrations 15-20 days earlier, with in summer range increasing more than threefold. Wild goats also migrated peak arrivals from 20-36 (1999-2003) 36-57 (2018-2022) between May 25 31, highlighting temperature as primary driver herbivore movement. In contrast, brown bears exhibited subtle movement, likely influenced both humidity. boars, an approximate 40% increase individuals, tended return lower elevations earlier previous years (1999-2003). These highlight role significant regulator ecology, influencing habitat use. However, human-induced barriers, such roads settlements, present additional threats these seasonal migrations. underscores urgent need for adaptive management strategies, including protection corridors, expansion core zones, enhanced community engagement, support resilience under changing climatic conditions.

Language: Английский

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Drought and Vegetation Lag Effects Influence Lizard Abundance: A 10‐Year Study of Perennial and Intermittent Urban River Areas

Ecohydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(3)

Published: April 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Animals living in urban desert ecosystems are affected by temperature extremes and altered hydrological regimes. Cities can alter both the physical biotic environment increasing modifying vegetation of species habitat. This study explores ecohydrological interactions among climate, lizard abundance along perennial intermittent river reaches Phoenix, Maricopa County, AZ, USA, over a decade. We calculated from visual encounter surveys Salt River analysed their relationship with bioclimatic variables cover, using geospatial datasets to incorporate annual lag‐year effects. focused on diurnal insectivorous lizards including Aspidoscelis tigris (tiger whiptail), Uta stansburiana (common side‐blotched lizard) Urosaurus ornatus (ornate tree saurophagous Callisaurus draconoides (zebra‐tailed lizard). Some were more numerous compared highlighting importance water availability. Our findings indicated decline richness period, positively correlating precipitation. Lizard for some was related lagged effects emphasizing delayed response communities ecosystem changes. provides one few assessments multiyear changes city underscores understanding patterns. Drought conditions low precipitation could have negative impacts abundance, maintaining flows cover benefit wildlife.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal activity patterns of a Kalahari mammal community: Trade‐offs between environmental heat load and predation pressure

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Mammals in arid zones have to trade off thermal stress, predation pressure, and time spent foraging a complex landscape. We quantified the relationship between environmental heat load activity of mammal community hot, Kalahari Desert. deployed miniature black globe thermometers within existing Snapshot Safari camera trap grid on Tswalu Reserve, South Africa. Using traps record species' throughout 24-h cycle, we changes patterns species relation loads their local environment. compared during which were active two sites with differing predator guilds, one where lion (

Language: Английский

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Variable responses of individual species to tropical forest degradation

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 12, 2024

Abstract The functional stability of ecosystems depends greatly on interspecific differences in responses to environmental perturbation. However, perturbation are not necessarily invariant among populations the same species, so intraspecific variation might also contribute. Such inter-population response diversity has recently been shown occur spatially across species ranges, but we lack estimates extent which individual an entire community have that vary through time. We assess this using 524 taxa repeatedly surveyed for effects tropical forest logging at a focal landscape Sabah, Malaysia. Just 39 % – all with non-significant degradation had responses. All other (61 %) showed significantly different gradient surveys, 6 responding opposite directions multiple surveys. Individual surveys low power (< 80 determine correct direction one-fifth taxa. Recurrent rounds disturbance increased prevalence intra-population diversity, while uncontrollable and/or turnover phenotypes generated variable least 44 Our results show local perturbations remarkably flexible, likely providing unrealised boost disturbed habitats such as logged forests.

Language: Английский

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Geographic redistributions are insufficient to mitigate the erosion of species environmental niches

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 4, 2024

Abstract As climate change accelerates, species may survive in place thanks to niche plasticity or adaptation must redistribute conserve their environmental niches 1 . Examples of such geographical range shifts abound 2–4 , but date an assessment species’ success retaining and limiting exposure is missing. Here, we develop a novel method account for biases inherent tens millions citizen science observations, allowing us evaluate how have mitigated climatic loss using redistributions. We find that over 20 years, 384 North American bird shifted summertime distributions 0.73° north, mitigating expected warming by ∼1.16 °C thus averting 44% had they stayed place. Despite these movements, were still exposed average ∼1.47 increase temperature few achieved complete retention. Meanwhile, only ∼0.47 (11%) winter, shifting ∼3.74 °C, with almost no fully niches. Species moving the furthest north succeeded most conserving across both seasons. expected, previously untested at this scale, physiological characteristics associated dispersal greatest redistributions Most been partially effective towards gap between historical growing rapidly even highly mobile group as birds, raising concerns about ability less taxa persist warmer world.

Language: Английский

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Agricultural Land Use and Reproductive Behaviour Constrain Responses to Summer Thermal Stress in a Large Herbivore

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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