International Migration Review, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Feb. 24, 2025
This study evaluates whether the trajectories of forced migrants, specifically Syrian refugees moving towards Germany, exhibit path dependency—meaning that their migration decisions are influenced by past events and previous experiences. Using data from IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey refugees, this article investigates these adhere to a Markov process, where likelihood future migrations depends solely on current state. By employing global local score tests, systematically tests assumption across different routes, focusing Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt as transit countries. The findings indicate shorter, reactive Syria Lebanon Turkey dependency, meaning is recent events. Conversely, longer, logistically complex migrations, such countries property, suggesting independence. distinction highlights impact route difficulty destination accessibility behaviors. implications also significant for use property in computational models migration. Researchers should exercise caution when applying indiscriminately contexts, its validity can vary based external factors policy changes accessibility.
Language: Английский