Coupling HEC-RAS and AI for River Morphodynamics Assessment Under Changing Flow Regimes: Enhancing Disaster Preparedness for the Ottawa River

Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12(2), P. 25 - 25

Published: Feb. 4, 2025

Despite significant advancements in flood forecasting using machine learning (ML) algorithms, recent events have revealed hydrological behaviors deviating from historical model development trends. The record-breaking 2019 the Ottawa River basin, which exceeded 100-year threshold, underscores escalating impact of climate change on extremes. These unprecedented highlight limitations traditional ML models, rely heavily data and often struggle to predict extreme floods that lack representation past records. This calls for integrating more comprehensive datasets innovative approaches enhance robustness adaptability changing climatic conditions. study introduces Next-Gen Group Method Data Handling (Next-Gen GMDH), an leveraging second- third-order polynomials address models predicting events. Using HEC-RAS simulations, a synthetic dataset river flow discharges was created, covering wide range potential future with return periods up 10,000 years, accuracy generalization predictions under evolving GMDH addresses complexity standard by incorporating non-adjacent connections optimizing intermediate layers, significantly reducing computational overhead while enhancing performance. Gen demonstrated improved stability tighter clustering predictions, particularly scenarios. Testing results exceptional predictive accuracy, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values 4.72% channel width, 1.80% depth, 0.06% water surface elevation. vastly outperformed GMDH, yielded MAPE 25.00%, 8.30%, 0.11%, respectively. Additionally, reduced approximately 40%, 33.88% decrease Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) width impressive 581.82% improvement depth. methodology integrates hydrodynamic modeling advanced ML, providing robust framework accurate prediction adaptive floodplain management climate.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of Urban Flood Susceptibility and Inundation through Bivariate Statistics with Synthetic Aperture Radar: Insights for Spatial Planning in Pekanbaru City, Indonesia

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 25, 2024

Flooding has become one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters, affecting sustainability cities in future. This study aims to assess flood susceptibility using a frequency ratio approach and evaluate spatial planning Pekanbaru City, Indonesia. Flood locations were derived from synthetic aperture radar data prepare actual data. In this area, identification physical environmental parameters was conducted various datasets such as slope, landform, curvature, topographic wetness index, distance rivers, rainfall, soil texture, depth. Furthermore, weighted assessment all thematic layers calculated based on events observation area. The overall related location divided, with 70% for model development 30% validation. results showed that affected 18 km², an accuracy 84.21%. categorized into four levels very high (11.36%), (58.04%), medium (24.78%), low (5.81%). An accurate potential susceptibility, measured by operational characteristic curve (AUC), prediction rate 76.30% success 78.45%. However, considering implications patterns, affects cultivated areas covering 381.16 which are spread almost throughout urban High indirectly cause disaster losses impact community activities. misalignment between distribution needs be addressed anticipate other hazards.

Language: Английский

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Assessing Flood Risk of Heritage Sites in an Urban Area: Impact of Locational Characteristics and Historical Context

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(23), P. 10473 - 10473

Published: Nov. 29, 2024

This study examines how the locational characteristics of heritage sites influence their current flood risk in an urban environment under changing climate conditions. We studied 1620 highly urbanized Seoul, Korea; first quantified sites, considering topography and hydrological 10-, 30-, 50-year return periods extreme precipitation scenarios. Terrain analyses were then applied to examine physical related susceptibility, with a literature review on historical origin human factors each site. The evaluation location conditions at-risk relationship construction period type was conducted. results show that physical, political, economic, social, cultural determinants varied depending type, leading present spatial distribution sites. Specific topographical knickpoints lowlands near streams, which face additional hydraulic pressure drainage issues from development, showed particularly high risks. By examining interplay between historical, development factors, research provides holistic understanding risks, essential for sustainable conservation strategies.

Language: Английский

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