How concerned should we be about broiler breeder fertility declines?

Poultry Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 104(5), P. 104992 - 104992

Published: March 7, 2025

Broiler breeder fertility is the bedrock on which modern broiler production rests. Over last decade, and hatchability issues have emerged as key topics of interest for both breeders producers. In this study, we took an analytical approach to interrogate declining trends among U.S. from 2013 2022, leveraging data USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Despite increase in number eggs set broilers raised meet rising demand poultry, projections indicate that rates could decrease approximately 60 % by 2050 without corrective action. Our Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis reveals significant declines essential metrics, including hatchability, chick livability, efficiency. The also includes 95 credible intervals confirm a persistent downward trend across these parameters. We developed Breeder Performance Index (BBPI) deepen our understanding trends, utilizing Gaussian Cauchy models evaluate predictive performance. BBPI suggest decline below baseline values over time, underscoring urgent need interventions counteract crisis industry. Several factors contribute decline, management practices genetic selection strategies. Effective flock techniques, such sex-separate feeding careful weight monitoring, are vital improving reproductive viability breeders. findings highlight necessity addressing ensure long-term sustainability poultry production. As global meat grows, industry faces challenges maintaining productivity. By pinpointing causes implementing effective strategies, stakeholders can better navigate complexities food security. This study aims draw attention urgency issues. It encourages further research into solutions enhance performance various stocks

Language: Английский

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Time-series forecasting in smart manufacturing systems: An experimental evaluation of the state-of-the-art algorithms

Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 95, P. 103010 - 103010

Published: March 10, 2025

Language: Английский

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Modeling and Forecasting Dead-on-Arrival in Broilers Using Time Series Methods: A Case Study from Thailand

Animals, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(8), P. 1179 - 1179

Published: April 20, 2025

Antibiotic-free (ABF) broiler production plays an important role in promoting sustainable and welfare-oriented poultry farming. However, this system presents challenges, particularly increased susceptibility to stress mortality during transport. This study aimed (i) analyze time series data on the monthly percentage of dead-on-arrival (%DOA) (ii) compare performance various models. Data %DOA from 127,578 transport truckloads recorded between 2018 2024 were aggregated into values. The then decomposed identify trends seasonal patterns. models evaluated included SARIMA, NNAR, TBATS, ETS, XGBoost. These trained using January December 2023, their forecasting accuracy was test 2024. Model assessed multiple error metrics, including MAE, MAPE, MASE, RMSE. results revealed a distinct pattern %DOA. Among models, TBATS ETS demonstrated highest when applied data, with MAPE values 21.2% 22.1%, respectively. considerably lower than those NNAR at 54.4% XGBoost 29.3%. Forecasts for 2025 showed that produced similar can serve as valuable decision-support tool ABF production. By facilitating proactive planning, these help reduce transport-related mortality, improve animal welfare, enhance overall operational efficiency.

Language: Английский

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Impact of Transitioning from Antibiotic Use to Antibiotic-Free Practices on Broiler Dead-on-Arrival Rates: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach

Poultry Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 104(8), P. 105312 - 105312

Published: May 17, 2025

This study assessed the impact of transitioning from an antibiotic (AB) to antibiotic-free (ABF) production system on dead-on-arrival (%DOA) rates during broiler transport. Data 105,898 truckloads across 200 280 farms over six years were analyzed, comparing three before (2015-2017) and after (2018-2020) ABF transition. Decomposition analysis revealed a decline in %DOA 2015 2017, followed by stability until 2019 another into 2020. Seasonal fluctuations observed, with peaking between February April reaching its lowest point October. Changepoint identified significant shifts %DOA, highest values occurring 2015. Following transition, temporarily increased for about months stabilizing. Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) showed that observed closely matched predicted values, indicating no effect transition (p = 0.485; posterior probability 51 %). These findings suggest transport mortality can be effectively controlled without antibiotics maintaining robust practices, such as improved sanitation, rearing stocking density, optimized brooding, enhanced pre-slaughter management.

Language: Английский

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Using Azolla microphylla in investigating different agro-wastewaters treatment and its biomass growth for carbon sequestration

Results in Engineering, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103865 - 103865

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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