Analyzing the Distribution Patterns of Endemic Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy in Türkiye Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling DOI Open Access
Derya Evrim Koç, Ayşe ATALAY DUTUCU

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(11), P. 1935 - 1935

Published: Nov. 3, 2024

Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy (Kasnak oak), one of the 18 species naturally distributed in Anatolia, is an endemic with a restricted distribution range. In accordance International Union for Conservation Nature (IUCN) Red List Endangered Species classification, designated as low risk (LC: Least Concern). However, it predicted that habitat will narrow and become endangered result potential climate change scenarios future. The aim this study was to estimate temporal spatial Anatolia during LGM, well examine impact present future changes on species. context, principal component analysis applied 19 bioclimatic variables Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) model, nine identified use modeling. Habitat suitability estimated using Biodiversity Modeling (BIOMOD) ensemble modeling method, which combines results different algorithms through R package ‘biomod2’, applying both committee averaging weighted average approaches. To evaluate performance models, Area Under Curve (AUC) Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), True Skill Statistics (TSS), KAPPA Boyce Index were calculated. contributions environmental determined per-algorithm-model basis. analyses show contribute most are Bio8. capable occupying suitable areas across majority Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It anticipated projections indicate notable reduction extent species, remaining confined vicinity Ilgaz Mountains, Köroğlu Mountains Bolkar Mountains. Given increasing destruction vulcanica, plant, be adversely affected by human impacts change, highest importance develop adaptation strategies view protecting species’ sustainability

Language: Английский

Effect of climate change on the habitat suitability of the relict species Zelkova carpinifolia Spach using ensembled species distribution modelling DOI Creative Commons
Derya Evrim Koç, Beyza Ustaoğlu, Demet Bi̇lteki̇n

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Nov. 14, 2024

Zelkova carpinifolia is a Tertiary relict tree distributed in Hyrcanian and Colchic forests. Most of its habitat has been destroyed the last century. This study aimed to model potentially suitable areas for from past future. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Future (2061–2080) models include 19 bioclimatic variables CCSM4 global circulation Pearson correlation coefficient was used assess collinearity between ten were selected distribution modelling. Habitat suitability estimated using Biodiversity Modelling (BIOMOD) ensemble modelling method by combining results algorithm R package "biomod2". area under curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) true skills statistics (TSS) calculated evaluate performance models. contributions environmental separately each model. According obtained, most effective variable species temperature seasonality (Bio4). revealed that survived refuge western Asia during LGM. These have remained largely unchanged even expanded. future predict habitats will narrow forests south Caspian Sea more conditions be found around Caucasus. Given increasing destruction these valuable plant due human activities expected negative impacts climate change future, it important develop policies strategies protection carpinifolia's habitat, creation nature reserves, sustainability.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Determination of Potential Distribution Areas of Quercus cerris (Turkish oak) in Anatolia According to Climate Change Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Cerciş İkiel

Sakarya University Journal of Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(4), P. 782 - 793

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

The aim of this study is to determine the potential suitable distribution areas for Quercus cerris in future depending on climate change scenarios. For purpose, current spatial data and 19 bioclimatic variable downloaded from WorldClim 2.1 database were used. consist 2081-2100 period belonging SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios MIROC6 model with resolution 2.5 arc-minutes. PCA was applied data. MaxEnt 3.4.1 ArcGIS 10.5 software used generate models. accuracy models measured as 0.79 AUC test value. variables that contributed most BIO4 (temperature seasonality) 39.8%, BIO9 (mean temperature driest quarter) 26.7%. According results, it predicted species unsuitable habitat areas, which 25.9% today, will increase by 54.1% according SSP 245 scenario 80.2% 585 scenario. While Q. Anatolia are 33.2% they a decreasing direction 11.6% 14.0% In addition direct impact cerris, when changes land use taken into account, should be preserved sustainable development goals

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Plant-Pollinator Interactions along the Altitudinal Gradient inBerberis lyciumRoyle: An Endangered Medicinal Plant Species of the Himalayan Region DOI Creative Commons

Nahila Anjum,

Sajid Aleem Khan, Susheel Verma

et al.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 5, 2024

Abstract Mountain ecosystems influence species distribution by offering climatic variables intertwined with rising altitude. These factors determine phenology and niche width. Although the distributional patterns of some prominent insect groups in relation to altitude have been determined, environmental preferences along altitudinal range that differentially pollination specific plant are unknown. Here we assess how composition abundance pollinator fauna important medicinal Berberis lycium Royle (Berberidaceae) differ across five distinct gradients (800-2200 m) Pir-Panjal mountain northwestern part Indian Himalayas. We monitored pollinators major (bees, butterflies, wasps, flies) over two consecutive flowering seasons during 2022-2023. In total, 39 belonging orders 17 families were observed visiting period gradient. The results linear regression model depict all four indices show a negative correlation increasing foraging activities when data pooled together. However, only speed (FS) index rate (IVR) statistically significant. case individual orders, Lepidoptera exhibited notable asynchrony among other has reported gradients. reproductive output (fruit seed production) shows significant concluded while influences distribution, it also shapes plant-pollinator interactions, activities, output. This work is great significance order monitor which essential component biodiversity rich but fragile ecosystem.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Analyzing the Distribution Patterns of Endemic Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy in Türkiye Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling DOI Open Access
Derya Evrim Koç, Ayşe ATALAY DUTUCU

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(11), P. 1935 - 1935

Published: Nov. 3, 2024

Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy (Kasnak oak), one of the 18 species naturally distributed in Anatolia, is an endemic with a restricted distribution range. In accordance International Union for Conservation Nature (IUCN) Red List Endangered Species classification, designated as low risk (LC: Least Concern). However, it predicted that habitat will narrow and become endangered result potential climate change scenarios future. The aim this study was to estimate temporal spatial Anatolia during LGM, well examine impact present future changes on species. context, principal component analysis applied 19 bioclimatic variables Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) model, nine identified use modeling. Habitat suitability estimated using Biodiversity Modeling (BIOMOD) ensemble modeling method, which combines results different algorithms through R package ‘biomod2’, applying both committee averaging weighted average approaches. To evaluate performance models, Area Under Curve (AUC) Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), True Skill Statistics (TSS), KAPPA Boyce Index were calculated. contributions environmental determined per-algorithm-model basis. analyses show contribute most are Bio8. capable occupying suitable areas across majority Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It anticipated projections indicate notable reduction extent species, remaining confined vicinity Ilgaz Mountains, Köroğlu Mountains Bolkar Mountains. Given increasing destruction vulcanica, plant, be adversely affected by human impacts change, highest importance develop adaptation strategies view protecting species’ sustainability

Language: Английский

Citations

0