A typology of compound weather and climate events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(7), P. 333 - 347

Published: June 15, 2020

Language: Английский

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Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 17(6), P. 1655 - 1672

Published: March 27, 2020

In recent decades, an increasing persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns has been observed. the course associated long-lasting anticyclonic summer circulations, heatwaves and drought spells often coincide, leading to so-called hotter droughts. Previous droughts caused a decrease in agricultural yields increase tree mortality. Thus, they had remarkable effect on carbon budgets negative economic impacts. Consequently, quantification ecosystem responses better understanding underlying mechanisms are crucial. this context, European year 2018 may be considered key event. As first step towards its causes consequences, we here assess anomalies patterns, maximum temperature, climatic water balance as potential drivers which quantified by remote sensing using MODIS vegetation indices (VIs) normalized difference index (NDVI) enhanced (EVI). To place within climatological compare features remotely sensed response with extreme hot 2003. The was characterized dipole, featuring extremely dry weather conditions north Alps but comparably cool moist across large parts Mediterranean. Analysing five dominant land cover classes, found significant positive effects VI response. Negative impacts appeared affect area 1.5 times larger significantly stronger July compared August 2003, i.e. at respective peak drought. Moreover, higher sensitivity pastures arable forests both years. We explain coupling prevailing dipole: while generally water-limited ecosystems Mediterranean experienced above-average balance, less drought-adapted central northern Europe record conclusion, study quantifies yet unprecedented event, outlines hotspots drought-impacted areas should given particular attention follow-up studies, provides valuable insights into heterogeneous

Language: Английский

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Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 190 - 196

Published: March 15, 2021

Language: Английский

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Machine learning and artificial intelligence to aid climate change research and preparedness

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 14(12), P. 124007 - 124007

Published: Nov. 22, 2019

Climate change challenges societal functioning, likely requiring considerable adaptation to cope with future altered weather patterns. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have advanced dramatically, triggering breakthroughs in other research sectors, and recently suggested as aiding climate analysis (Reichstein et al 2019 Nature 566 195–204, Schneider 2017 Geophys. Res. Lett. 44 12396–417). Although a number of isolated Earth System features been analysed ML techniques, more generic application understand better the full system has not occurred. For instance, may aid teleconnection identification, where complex feedbacks make characterisation difficult from direct equation or visualisation measurements model (ESM) diagnostics. Artificial intelligence (AI) can then build on discovered connections provide enhanced warnings approaching features, including extreme events. While ESM development is paramount importance, we suggest parallel emphasis utilising AI capitalise far existing data simulations.

Language: Английский

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Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 375(1810), P. 20190510 - 20190510

Published: Sept. 6, 2020

Extreme weather increases the risk of large-scale crop failure. The mechanisms involved are complex and intertwined, hence undermining identification simple adaptation levers to help improve resilience agricultural production. Based on more than 82 000 yield data reported at regional level in 17 European countries, we assess how climate affected yields nine species. Using machine learning models, analyzed historical since 1901 then focus 2018, which has experienced a multiplicity diversity atypical extreme climatic conditions. Machine models explain up 65% anomalies. We find that both extremes temperature precipitation associated with negative anomalies, but varying impacts different parts Europe. In Northern Eastern Europe multiple simultaneous failures-among highest observed recent decades. These losses were extremely low rainfalls combination high temperatures between March August 2018. However, higher usual recorded Southern Europe-caused by favourable spring rainfall conditions-nearly offset large decrease Our results outline importance considering single compound analyse causes found no clear upward or downward trend frequency for any considered crops 1990 This article is part theme issue 'Impacts 2018 severe drought heatwave Europe: from site continental scale'.

Language: Английский

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Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: July 4, 2022

Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of northern midlatitudes over past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in frequency persistence double jet stream states Eurasia. We find occurrences particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up 35% temperature variability. The events explains almost all Europe, about 30% it extended region. Those findings provide evidence addition thermodynamical drivers, contributed increased rate with implications risk management potential adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(3)

Published: Jan. 6, 2020

Abstract In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness human society, increased frequency intensity nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview different types disasters, their causes, impacts. can be distinctly occurring in isolation (both temporally) other noting that full never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases show global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art assessment models outputs do not allow thorough representation analysis disasters. mainly many challenges are introduced by addressing combining hazards nature, accounting interactions dynamics. Disaster management needs more holistic codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, companies.

Language: Английский

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Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 7(7), P. 692 - 703

Published: June 7, 2019

Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human-induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when occur exposure of people or crops. The 2018 spring-to-summer season was characterized by several major dry extremes. On daily average between May July about 22% populated agricultural areas north 30° latitude concurrent hot temperature Events this type were unprecedented prior 2010, while similar conditions 2010 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations present-day climate, is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display increase Based simulations, we show it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) hemispheric events not occurred Our results further reveal high-exposure area projected experience warm spells Northern Hemisphere increases 16% per additional warming. A strong reduction fossil fuel emissions paramount reduce risks global-scale wave impacts.

Language: Английский

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Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 48 - 53

Published: Dec. 9, 2019

Language: Английский

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Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 375(1794), P. 20190105 - 20190105

Published: Jan. 27, 2020

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding empirical observations abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast time or relative their drivers-are ubiquitous increasing frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications real-world landscapes detect, explain anticipate ACES lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from studies across diverse ecosystems: (i) show some dimensions not others; (ii) extremes may be more important than mean generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce (iv) contingencies, such memory, frequency sequence disturbances, spatial context important; (v) tipping points (but always) associated with ACES. suggest research priorities advance the face change. Progress requires strong integration scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments process-based models) high-quality data drawn array ecosystems. This article part theme issue 'Climate change threats, opportunities solutions'.

Language: Английский

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