Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 2

Published: July 17, 2020

In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture low level technological development production systems. Future risk will be determined adaptation choices made farmers, yet few models … incorporate adaptive behavior estimation risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic model, ADOPT, evaluate factors that influence decisions subsequent adoption measures, how affects for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological agent-based modeling approaches coupling FAO crop model AquacropOS with behavioral capable simulating different theories. paper, compare protection motivation theory, describes bounded rationality, business-as-usual economic rational behavior. The inclusion these scenarios serves effect assumptions about evolution over time. Applied semi-arid case Kenya, parameterized using field data collected from 250 households Kitui region discussions local decision-makers. results show estimations need emergency aid can improved approach: ignoring individual household characteristics leads underestimation food-aid needs. Moreover, scenario better able reflect historic security, poverty levels, yields. Thus, demonstrate reality complex human best described assuming behavior; furthermore, approach choice theory matter when quantifying estimating

Language: Английский

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A Biostimulant Based on Seaweed (Ascophyllum nodosum and Laminaria digitata) and Yeast Extracts Mitigates Water Stress Effects on Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.)

Agriculture, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(6), P. 557 - 557

Published: June 17, 2021

Water deficit is one of the most problematic stressors worldwide. In this context, use biostimulants represents an increasingly ecological practice aimed to improve crop tolerance and mitigate negative effects on productivity. Here, effect derived from foliar application ERANTHIS®®, a biostimulant based seaweed (Ascophyllum nodosum Laminaria digitata) yeast extracts, was tested tomato plants grown under mild water-stress conditions. The potential stress mitigation action evaluated by monitoring morphometric (fresh weight dry matter content), physiological (stem water potential) biochemical (ROS scavenger enzymes activity, proline, abscisic acid, hydrogen peroxide photosynthetic pigment content) parameters closely related occurrence response at both flowering fruit-set timing. general, we observed that drought conditions treated with had lower amount ABA, MDA proline correlated activity ROS compared untreated plants. These data, together higher stem levels recorded for plants, suggest ERANTHIS®® may tomato.

Language: Английский

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Caught Between Extremes: Understanding Human‐Water Interactions During Drought‐To‐Flood Events in the Horn of Africa

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Abstract Disaster risks are the results of complex spatiotemporal interactions between risk components, impacts and societal response. The complexities these increase when multi‐risk events occur in vulnerable contexts characterized by ethnic conflicts, unstable governments, high levels poverty, resulting that larger than anticipated. Yet, only few studies explore human‐environment interactions, as most hazard‐focused, consider a single‐type interaction, rarely account for dynamics components. Here, we developed step‐wise, bottom‐up approach, which range qualitative semi‐quantitative methods was used iteratively to reconstruct feedback loops components consecutive drought‐to‐flood events, their variations. Within this conceptualize disaster set multiple (societal physical) interacting evolving across space time. approach applied 2017–2018 humanitarian crises Kenya Ethiopia, where extensive flooding followed severe drought lasting 18–24 months. were also accompanied government elections, crop pest outbreaks conflicts. Results show (a) highly Kenyan Ethiopian further aggravated flood impacts; (b) heavy rainfall after led both an decrease dependent on topographic socio‐economic conditions; (c) response one hazard may influence opposite hazards. A better understanding human‐water characterize can support development effective monitoring systems strategies.

Language: Английский

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Global assessment of drought characteristics in the Anthropocene

Resources Environment and Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12, P. 100105 - 100105

Published: Jan. 3, 2023

Contemporary understanding of the impacts climate change on global drought characteristics (e.g., intensities, extents) is still limited and not well understood. This knowledge critical because projected changes in are expected to impact future water availability as influence decisions how resources allocated. The main aim this study improve (extents duration) Anthropocene where rapid environment caused by composite human activities change. Multi-scale earth observation data (1980−2020) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, which incorporate Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2040−2070 2070−2100) used assess these identify climatic hotspots could drive groundwater hydrology. Results show that towards end 21st century, land areas under will significantly decrease but their durations not. Generally, there evidence significant decline proportion experience various intensities (moderate, severe extreme drought) for each category, affected reach 30% average. Moreover, some regions potential climate-groundwater interactions events directly groundwater. varying degree strong correlations (positive negative) between Australia, Europe, Southern Africa, Asia). relatively negative indicative presence considerable lags, be aridity footprints.

Language: Английский

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Complex climate change risk and emerging directions for vulnerability research in Africa

Climate Risk Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 40, P. 100497 - 100497

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

This article explains the assessment and conceptual framing of Vulnerability Synthesis in Africa chapter Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR6), situating synthesis within emerging understandings complex climate change risk, intersectionality multi-dimensional vulnerability. It highlights how reducing vulnerability holds greatest potential gains for near-term risk Africa. elaborates important dimensions vulnerability, such as inequalities gender, migrant status or level income, compound with each other to affect risk. Our review current scholarship reveals severe limitations management that are rooted a lack attention interacting social drivers their effects well an orientation toward analyses at coarse spatial levels. These scales do not match localised nature nor impacts change. There is also limited research intersectional differentiation vulnerabilities, which essential understanding heterogeneous vulnerable groups agency, particularly concerning navigating contesting unequal power relations. Reflecting these Synthesis, we identify can provide deeper interactions among multiple why this matters adaptation Key will be show responses what overall outcomes. Doing so advance analysis place-based assessments across better inform design interventions targeting those have proportional effect reduction. contribute informed safeguards against maladaptation concrete directions planning more inclusive climate-resilient development.

Language: Английский

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