Drought- and heatwave-associated compound extremes: A review of hotspots, variables, parameters, drivers, impacts, and analysis frameworks DOI Creative Commons

Mahnaz Dil Afroz,

Gang Chen, Aavudai Anandhi

et al.

Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Feb. 3, 2023

Droughts and heatwaves are rising concerns with regard to the frequent formation of compound or concurrent extremes (CEs), which can cause greater havoc than an individual event a higher magnitude. Recently, they have been frequently detected form CEs together other events (e.g., floods, aridity, humidity events) concurrently spatiotemporal lags. Therefore, this systematic review assesses these by reviewing following aspects: CE hotspots, events, variable combinations that CEs; analyzed parameters frequency severity); large-scale modes climate variability (CV) as drivers alongside approaches relate them impacts yield loss fire risk) impact integration from 166 screened publications. Additionally, three varied analysis frameworks summarized highlight different components drought- heatwave-associated CEs, is novelty study. The vary major assessment objectives: only (event–event), driver association (event–driver), (event–impact). According review, most reported hotspots in global studies southern Africa, Australia, South America, Southeast Asia. In regional studies, several vital Iberian Peninsula, Balkans, Mediterranean Basin) reported, some not mentioned because usually report broader regions. addition, drought heatwave; heatwave stagnation) varying combination variables, namely, temperature, precipitation, their derived indices. Thus, study presents for prospective researchers.

Language: Английский

Prediction and projection of heatwaves DOI
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, Erich Fischer

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. 36 - 50

Published: Dec. 13, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

211
Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts DOI Creative Commons
Zengchao Hao, Fanghua Hao,

Youlong Xia

et al.

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 235, P. 104241 - 104241

Published: Nov. 8, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

147
How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event? DOI Creative Commons
Kumar Puran Tripathy, Ashok K. Mishra

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(15)

Published: Aug. 8, 2023

Abstract The 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) caused widespread crop damage, water shortages, wildfires across Europe. Our study analyzed this event’s severity return period (RP) compared it with past mega CDHWs in hardest‐hit areas were Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, where temperatures exceeded 2.5°C above normal, severe droughts persisted from May to August. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the RP for CDHW event, which was unprecedented Northern western parts of RPs 354, 420, 280 years, respectively. reduced soil moisture due precipitation deficits high contributed persistence drought, creating positive feedback loop dry soils led even drier conditions. In light our findings, is evident that global warming poses increased risks events, are likely increase.

Language: Английский

Citations

82
Adaptation to compound climate risks: A systematic global stocktake DOI Creative Commons
Nicholas P. Simpson, Portia Adade Williams, Katharine J. Mach

et al.

iScience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 26(2), P. 105926 - 105926

Published: Jan. 5, 2023

This article provides a stocktake of the adaptation literature between 2013 and 2019 to better understand how responses affect risk under particularly challenging conditions compound climate events. Across 39 countries, 45 response types hazards display anticipatory (9%), reactive (33%), maladaptive (41%) characteristics, as well hard (18%) soft (68%) limits adaptation. Low income, food insecurity, access institutional resources finance are most prominent 23 vulnerabilities observed negatively responses. Risk for security, health, livelihoods, economic outputs commonly associated risks driving Narrow geographical sectoral foci highlight important conceptual, sectoral, geographic areas future research way shape risk. When integrated within assessment management, there is greater potential advance urgency safeguards vulnerable.

Language: Английский

Citations

59
Toward a framework for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management DOI Creative Commons
Stefan Hochrainer‐Stigler, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Karina Reiter

et al.

iScience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 26(5), P. 106736 - 106736

Published: April 26, 2023

In our increasingly interconnected world, natural hazards and their impacts spread across geographical, administrative, sectoral boundaries. Owing to the interrelationships between multi-hazards socio-economic dimensions, of these types events can surmount those multiple single hazards. The complexities involved in tackling multi-risks hinder a more holistic integrative perspective make it difficult identify overarching dimensions important for assessment management purposes. We contribute this discussion by building on systemic risk research, especially focus interconnectedness, suggest ways forward an integrated multi-hazard multi-risk framework that should be beneficial real-world applications. article, we propose six-step analyzing managing spectrum ranging from single-to multi- risk.

Language: Английский

Citations

49
The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities DOI Creative Commons
Mahshid Ghanbari, Mazdak Arabi, Matei Georgescu

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: June 14, 2023

Compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events pose greater risks to the environment, society, and human health than their univariate counterparts. Here, we project decadal-length changes in frequency duration of CDHE for major U.S. cities during 21st century. Using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled an urban canopy parameterization, find a considerable increase future across all under compound effect high-intensity GHG- development-induced warming. Our results indicate that while GHG-induced warming is primary driver increased events, development amplifies this should not be neglected. Furthermore, We show highest amplification expected Great Plains South, Southwest, southern part Northwest National Climate Assessment regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

48
Impacts of record-breaking compound heatwave and drought events in 2022 China on vegetation growth DOI
Wenfang Xu, Wenping Yuan, Donghai Wu

et al.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 344, P. 109799 - 109799

Published: Nov. 10, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

48
Global cropland exposure to extreme compound drought heatwave events under future climate change DOI Creative Commons
Anqian Wang, Hui Tao, Gang Ding

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 40, P. 100559 - 100559

Published: March 27, 2023

The risk of compound drought heatwave events (CDHEs) and their persistence has intensified in recent decades is expected to increase faster the future. Projecting future changes CDHEs area cropland exposed under different scenarios critical for climate adaptation sustainable development. In this study, we analyze exposure extreme at global continental scales Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) mid-term (2041–2060) long-term (2081–2100) 21st century by using 14 CMIP6 GCMs LUH2 land-use data. We find that with high frequency are mainly located tropical areas. will be much higher than baseline period (1995–2014), increased more obvious emissions increase. Overall, total warm season during 1995–2014 148.05 × 103 km2 month−1. Exposure 868.68–1801.25 1058.58–3887.54 month−1 SSP scenarios. effect dominant driving factor exposure. Cropland on all continents, especially Asia Africa. Our findings provide scientific evidence benefit limiting low-emission which effectively reduce change.

Language: Английский

Citations

45
Evaluation of extreme precipitation climate indices and their projected changes for Brazil: From CMIP3 to CMIP6 DOI Creative Commons
Felipe Jeferson de Medeiros, Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira, Álvaro Ávila-Díaz

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 38, P. 100511 - 100511

Published: Sept. 25, 2022

Extreme events usually cause numerous economic and social losses, especially in vulnerable countries, such as Brazil. Understanding whether the evolution of Earth System Models (ESMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) improves representation extreme investigating their future change is fundamental because device policies adaptation mitigation to climate generally consider results most recent generation ESMs. This study analyzes performance a subset 40 ESMs CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6 simulating eight precipitation indices over Brazil during 1981–2000 also estimates projected changes for middle (2046–2065) far (2081–2 100) under worst-case scenario each CMIP generation. Results reveal that CDD are challenging index be simulated, while best ones were PRCPTOT R20mm. The model shows CMIP3 has skill Northeast Brazil, CMIP5 Center-West, North, Southeast South regions. Thus, at least did not reflect substantial improvement extremes all Brazilian In addition, models across generations have difficulty observed trends. indicate improvements still needed models. Despite relative low historical climate, projections consensus signal among generations, which increase its reliability. Overall, more severe, frequent, long-lasting regions, with pronounce expected heavy rainfall severe droughts central northern portion southern sector.

Language: Английский

Citations

68
Drought–heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review DOI
Renata Libonati, João L. Geirinhas, Patrícia S. Silva

et al.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1517(1), P. 44 - 62

Published: Sept. 2, 2022

Abstract Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought‐heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental socioeconomic sectors. These threats are particular importance low‐income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress understanding CDHW patterns Brazil while providing insights about impacts on fire occurrence public health. Evidence mounting that heatwaves becoming increasingly linked droughts northeastern southeastern Brazil, Amazonia, Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build better physical mechanisms behind events, such as soil moisture–atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at synergy between events high activity country over last decades, most example being catastrophic 2020 fires Moreover, we show HWs were responsible for increasing mortality preterm births during record‐breaking Brazil. work paves way more in‐depth their impacts, crucial enhance adaptive capacity different Brazilian

Language: Английский

Citations

67