Solutions to agricultural green water scarcity under climate change

PNAS Nexus, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2(4)

Published: April 1, 2023

Abstract Rain-fed agricultural systems, which solely depend on green water (i.e. soil moisture from rainfall), sustain ∼60% of global food production and are particularly vulnerable to vagaries in temperature precipitation patterns, intensifying due climate change. Here, using projections crop demand availability under warming scenarios, we assess scarcity—defined when the rainfall regime is unable meet requirements. With present-day conditions, for 890 million people lost because scarcity. Under 1.5°C 3°C warming—the projected current targets business as usual policies—green scarcity will affect 1.23 1.45 billion people, respectively. If adaptation strategies were be adopted retain more reduce evaporation, find that loss would decrease 780 people. Our results show appropriate management have potential adapt agriculture promote security.

Language: Английский

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Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century

Geoscience Frontiers, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 101774 - 101774

Published: Dec. 22, 2023

The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for 21st century is both alarming ambiguous. According to computer projections, global surface may warm from 1.3 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100, depending on model (GCM) shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario used simulations. However a substantial number CMIP6 GCMs run "too hot" because they appear be too sensitive radiative forcing, that high/extreme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5 must rejected judged "unlikely" "highly unlikely", respectively. This paper examines "realistic" change projections generated assessing theoretical models integrating them existing empirical knowledge warming various natural cycles have been recorded variety scientists historians. achieved combining SSP2-4.5 empirically optimized modeling. obtained show expected will likely mild, is, no more than 2.5-3.0 and, average, below 2.0 threshold. should allow mitigation management most dangerous climate-change-related hazards through appropriate low-cost adaptation policies. In conclusion, enforcing expensive decarbonization net-zero scenarios, such as SSP1-2.6, not required Paris Agreement temperature target keeping 2 throughout compatible also moderate pragmatic pathways SSP2-4.5.

Language: Английский

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The feasibility of climate action: Bridging the inside and the outside view through feasibility spaces

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(5)

Published: April 23, 2023

Abstract The feasibility of different options to reduce the risks climate change has engaged scholars for decades. Yet there is no agreement on how define and assess feasibility. We feasible as “do‐able under realistic assumptions.” A sound assessment based causal reasoning; enables comparison across options, contexts, implementation levels; reflexively considers agency its audience. Global scenarios are a good starting point assessing since they represent pathways, quantify levels, consider policy choices. Yet, scenario developers face difficulties all relevant causalities, realism assumptions, assign likelihood potential outcomes, evaluate their users, which calls external assessments. Existing approaches mirror “inside” “outside” view coined by Kahneman co‐authors. inside unique challenge seeks identify barriers that should be overcome political choice, commitment, skill. outside assesses through examining historical analogies (reference cases) given option. Recent studies seek bridge views “feasibility spaces,” identifying reference cases option, measuring outcomes characteristics, mapping them together with expected characteristics Feasibility spaces promising method prioritize realistically achievability goals, construct empirically‐grounded assumptions. This article categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Assessing Impacts Climate Change Representing Uncertainty Carbon Economy Mitigation Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand

Language: Английский

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Preconditions for achieving carbon neutrality in cement production through CCUS

Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 425, P. 138935 - 138935

Published: Sept. 23, 2023

Cement production needs to reduce its contribution climate change urgently. This industry is, however, difficult electrify and decarbonize is yet expected increase output accommodate the need of an increasing population. CCS and, more recently, CCU have been presented as promising solutions align with Paris Agreement objectives. Given lack application these technologies at scale in cement production, it remains dubious under which conditions they can deliver reductions. In this study, we answer question by developing a prospective Life Cycle Assesment model for existing plant Denmark. Results show that extensive use biomass fuel mix combined decarbonized electricity are necessary CCUS. CCUS could allow mitigate up 106% operational emissions 90′000 tons synthetic kerosene annually Denmark 2050. Considering direct indirect CO2-eq. emissions, such savings would bring near climate-neutrality. A variation test was run illustrate how results when assuming different values relevant parameters.

Language: Английский

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Internal variability plays a dominant role in global climate projections of temperature and precipitation extremes

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(3-4), P. 1931 - 1945

Published: Jan. 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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Overheating analysis of optimized nearly Zero-Energy dwelling during current and future heatwaves coincided with cooling system outage

Energy and Buildings, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 287, P. 112998 - 112998

Published: March 18, 2023

Language: Английский

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Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(26)

Published: June 26, 2024

Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect reefs against climate change. Our analysis daily projections ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, onset severe risk for this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude regions most vulnerable thermal stress will experience little reprieve from mitigation. By 2080, is likely start on in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round anticipated be high some regardless mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. identifying Earth's reef at lowest accelerated bleaching, our results prioritize limit loss biodiversity.

Language: Английский

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A prospective life cycle assessment of global ammonia decarbonisation scenarios

Heliyon, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(6), P. e27547 - e27547

Published: March 1, 2024

A prospective life cycle assessment was performed for global ammonia production across 26 regions from 2020 to 2050. The analysis based on the IEA Ammonia Roadmap and IMAGE electricity scenarios model three climate related a mean surface temperature increase of 3.5 °C, 2.0 1.5 °C by 2100. Combining these models with perspective new inventories improves ammonia's robustness, quality, applicability in assessments. It reveals that complete decarbonisation industry 2050 is unlikely because residual emissions supply chain, even most ambitious scenario. However, strong policies scenario could significantly reduce impacts up 70% per kilogram ammonia. cumulative greenhouse gas chain between are estimated at 24, 21, 15 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent scenarios, respectively. paper examines challenges achieving noting electrolysis-based (yellow) ammonia, contingent decarbonisation, offers cleaner pathway. significant GHG reductions complex, requiring advancements technologies lower readiness, like carbon capture storage methane pyrolysis. study also discusses limitations such as need urea demand, potential growth fuel, reliance CO2 transport storage, expansion renewable energy, raw material scarcity, longevity existing plants. highlights shifts environmental impacts, increased land, metal, mineral use growing bioenergy storage.

Language: Английский

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A unified modelling framework for projecting sectoral greenhouse gas emissions

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: March 19, 2024

Abstract Effectively tackling climate change requires sound knowledge about greenhouse gas emissions and their sources. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive, sectorally disaggregated, yet comparable projections for emissions. Here, we project sectoral until 2050 under business-as-usual scenario global sample countries five main sectors, using unified framework Bayesian methods. We show that, without concerted policy efforts, increase strongly, highlight number important differences across sectors. Increases in emerging economies are driven by strong output population growth, with related to the energy sector accounting most projected change. Advanced expected reduce over coming decades, although transport often still upward trends. compare our results emission published selected national authorities as well from Integrated Assessment Models some discrepancies.

Language: Английский

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Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 111037 - 111037

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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