El Niño Enhances Exposure to Humid Heat Extremes With Regionally Varying Impacts During Eastern Versus Central Pacific Events DOI Creative Commons
Zachary M. Menzo, Christina Karamperidou, Qinqin Kong

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(4)

Published: Feb. 14, 2025

Abstract Humid heat extremes, characterized by high wet bulb temperature (Tw), pose significant health risks. While strong El Niño events are known to affect the frequency of extreme Tw days, distinct impacts Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern (EP) remain understudied. Using a 12‐member CMIP6 ensemble at discrete global warming targets (+1.5, 2, 3, 4°C), this study shows progressively enhanced humid extent during EP primarily in Mainland Southeast Asia, while South Asia experiences regionally opposing effects from CP events. drive distinctly different, varying patterns dangerous Tw, yet both significantly increase affected population area impacted extremes all levels. This amplification surpasses impact an additional degree warming, highlighting Niño's compounding effect on stress threats across warmer climates.

Language: Английский

Greatly enhanced risk to humans as a consequence of empirically determined lower moist heat stress tolerance DOI Creative Commons
Daniel J. Vecellio, Qinqin Kong, W. Larry Kenney

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(42)

Published: Oct. 9, 2023

As heatwaves become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting due to climate change, the question of breaching thermal limits becomes pressing. A wet-bulb temperature (T w ) 35 °C has been proposed as a theoretical upper limit on human abilities biologically thermoregulate. But, recent—empirical—research using subjects found significantly lower maximum T at which thermoregulation is possible even with minimal metabolic activity. Projecting future exposure this empirical critical environmental not done. Here, accurate threshold latest coupled model results, we quantify dangerous, potentially lethal heat for climates various global warming levels. We find that humanity vulnerable moist stress than previously because these limits. Still, limiting under 2 nearly eliminates risk widespread uncompensable sharp rise in occurs 3 warming. Parts Middle East Indus River Valley experience brief exceedances only 1.5 More widespread, but brief, dangerous +2 climate, including eastern China sub-Saharan Africa, while US Midwest emerges hotspot +3 climate. In future, extremes will lie outside bounds past beyond current mitigation strategies billions people. While some physiological adaptation from thresholds described here possible, additional behavioral, cultural, technical be required maintain healthy lifestyles.

Language: Английский

Citations

49
Assessing urban population exposure risk to extreme heat: Patterns, trends, and implications for climate resilience in China (2000–2020) DOI

Chengcong Wang,

Zhibin Ren, Yüjie Guo

et al.

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 103, P. 105260 - 105260

Published: Feb. 7, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

32
"It is getting too hot lately": Urban households' knowledge, experiences and governance of extreme heat events in Accra, Ghana DOI
Yaw Agyeman Boafo, Ebenezer Forkuo Amankwaa, Catalina Spataru

et al.

Urban Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 59, P. 102287 - 102287

Published: Jan. 18, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Physiological strain under different wet bulb temperatures during daylong humid heat exposure in young men DOI
Huijuan Xu, Lei Zhang, Zhao Jin

et al.

Building and Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 112783 - 112783

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Rapidly increasing likelihood of exceeding 50 °C in parts of the Mediterranean and the Middle East due to human influence DOI Creative Commons
Nikolaos Christidis, Dann Mitchell, Peter A. Stott

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: May 26, 2023

Abstract As the world warms, extremely hot days are becoming more frequent and intense, reaching unprecedented temperatures associated with excess mortality. Here, we assess how anthropogenic forcings affect likelihood of maximum daily above 50 °C at 12 selected locations around Mediterranean Middle East. We adopt a risk-based attribution methodology that utilises climate model simulations without human influence to estimate probability extremes. find all locations, would have been rare or impossible in pre-industrial world, but under human-induced change their is rapidly increasing. At hottest has increased by factor 10–10 3 , whereas end century such extremes could occur every year. All may see 1–2 additional months thermal deaths 2100, which stresses need for effective adaptation planning.

Language: Английский

Citations

27
Observational and model evidence together support wide-spread exposure to noncompensable heat under continued global warming DOI Creative Commons
Carter M. Powis, David Byrne, Zachary Zobel

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(36)

Published: Sept. 8, 2023

As our planet warms, a critical research question is when and where temperatures will exceed the limits of what human body can tolerate. Past modeling efforts have investigated 35°C wet-bulb threshold, proposed as theoretical upper limit to survivability taking into account physiological behavioral adaptation. Here, we conduct an extreme value theory analysis weather station observations climate model projections investigate emergence empirically supported heat compensability limit. We show that hottest parts world already experience these extremes on limited basis under moderate continued warming every continent, except Antarctica, see rapid increase in their extent frequency. To conclude, discuss consequences this noncompensable need for incorporating different thermal adaptation planning.

Language: Английский

Citations

27
Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective DOI
Zengchao Hao, Yang Chen

Science China Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 67(2), P. 343 - 374

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world DOI Creative Commons
Matthew Collins, Jonathan D. Beverley, Thomas J. Bracegirdle

et al.

Frontiers in Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact. Access to the latest scientific information on current projection future trends important for planning adaptation measures informing international efforts reduce emissions greenhouse gases (GHGs). Identification hazards risks may be used assess vulnerability, determine limits adaptation, enhance resilience change. This article highlights how recent research programs are continuing elucidate processes advance projections across major systems identifies remaining knowledge gaps. Key findings include projected increases in monsoon rainfall, resulting from a changing balance between rainfall-reducing effect aerosols rainfall-increasing GHGs; strengthening storm track North Atlantic; increase fraction precipitation that falls as rain at both poles; frequency severity El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, along with changes ENSO teleconnections America Europe; hazardous hot-humid extremes. These have potential human natural systems. Nevertheless, these reduced via urgent, science-led by reductions GHGs.

Language: Английский

Citations

11
Improved Surface Urban Heat Impact Assessment Using GOES Satellite Data: A Comparative Study With ERA‐5 DOI Creative Commons
Jangho Lee, A. E. Dessler

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(1)

Published: Jan. 8, 2024

Abstract We compare high‐resolution land‐surface temperature (LST) estimates from the GOES‐16/17 (GOES) satellites to ERA‐5 Land (ERA‐5) reanalysis data across nine large US cities. quantify offset and find that generally overestimates LST compared GOES by 1.63°C. However, this overestimation is less pronounced in urban areas, underscoring limitations of capturing gradient between non‐urban areas. then examine three quantities: Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII), extreme events, exposure population. does not accurately represent diurnal variation magnitude SUHII GOES. Furthermore, while was on average too warm, underestimates heat an 2.40°C. Our analysis reveals higher population high set cities studied. This discrepancy especially when estimating fraction are most exposed heat.

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Spatiotemporal changes in population exposure to heat stress in South Asia DOI
Aung Kyaw Kyaw, Mohammed Magdy Hamed, Mohammad Kamruzzaman

et al.

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 93, P. 104544 - 104544

Published: March 18, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

23