Environmental Research Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 111004 - 111004

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Abstract Heatwaves pose significant threats to socioeconomic and environmental systems, with their intensity frequency expected increase due climate change. Despite critical impacts, future heatwaves in Brazil remain underexplored, especially from a human-perceived perspective, which is crucial for assessing potential public health impacts. Here, we propose method assess using the humidex ( H )—a index that combines temperature relative humidity indicate heat - alongside traditional temperature-based measures. Using bias-corrected simulations 10 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios, quantified projected changes across Brazil. The results will become more severe prolonged, greater scenario by end of century, particularly North, Northeast, Central regions. magnitude rise faster than ones, underscoring need health-focused assessments. strongly agree on increased heatwaves, potentially tripling population exposure most Brazilian states, Southeast experiencing its larger population. These events are not only affect people but also be severe, exceeding over 60 days per year serious danger H > 45 °C) century SSP5-8.5. Record-shattering historical period norm mid-century, highlighting accelerating nature these extreme events. Our findings emphasize importance considering impact studies planning mitigate Significance Statement increasing threat focus properties, overlooking aspects. This true Brazil, where receive limited attention. study introduces novel approach, coupling stress (H) evaluate them perspective. suggest intense prolonged future, record-breaking becoming mid-century. Human-perceived climate-based emphasizing increases triple (H pessimistic scenario.

Language: Английский