Published: Dec. 14, 2024
Staple crops such as wheat, maize, and soybean are essential for global food security, yet they remain highly vulnerable to extreme weather events like heat waves, cold spells, droughts, excessive rainfall. The interplay between different stressors can amplify crop damage significantly. When multiple occur together, their combined impact on yields be far greater than individual alone. Misunderstanding these complex interactions risks underestimating how climate change could affect agricultural production. In recent decades, production has become concentrated in a few key breadbasket regions. Teleconnections the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) synchronize failures across regions, posing severe threats supply creating security trade-dependent areas. These adverse conditions lead compounding impacts time space. This thesis aims improve our understanding of compound under by investigating various scenarios affecting First, I explore hot dry summer U.S. Chapter 2 reveals that extremes during flowering stage have largest impact, reducing factors four three compared or arise from strong coupling soil moisture temperature spring summer, well evapotranspiration summer. 3, highlight importance sequence stressors. For warm springs generally benefit yields. However, when followed summers, worsen up one-third. Under high-emission scenarios, sequential expected rise, negating surpassing benefits warmer springs. nonlinear risk underscores limiting warming 1.5°C protect security. Beyond local impacts, simultaneous regions disrupt trade 4, examine large-scale oceanic atmospheric drivers influence synchronized North South America. Persistent La Niña often result over southeastern Additionally, triggers extra-tropical sea surface patterns create circulation favorable summers. pathways concurrent losses While ENSO’s is known, this study highlights role extratropical improving predictions high-impact failures. 2012 failure exemplified dynamics. 5, use storyline approach quantify anthropogenic event. One-third deficit attributed human-induced change. If temperatures rise another 1°C, increase 50%. amplification driven thermodynamic factors, pattern was applied current future scenarios. Although frequency persistent remains uncertain, shows already intensified also demonstrates attribute greenhouse gas emissions considering anomalies. conclusion, pose growing threat Hot conditions, extremes, teleconnections ENSO cause severe, synchronized, yield losses. Recognizing accurately predicting mitigating Limiting critical ensuring resilient systems.
Language: Английский