Atlantis Ecosystem Model Summit 2022: Report from a workshop

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 483, P. 110442 - 110442

Published: July 7, 2023

Ecosystem models can play a supportive and informative role in the implementation of integrated approaches to marine resource management. Atlantis, an end-to-end biogeochemical ecosystem model, is capable exploring wide range aspects interactions. To aid testing development Atlantis as central tool for management advance global partnerships living management, second International Modeling Summit gathered 84 participants from 13 countries May 2022. The main outcomes 2022 include: fortifying sense community, training 37 participants, disseminating tools currently available needed processing inputs/outputs, identifying limitations use-cases moving forward with research pertaining climate change, fisheries synergies artificial intelligence machine learning.

Language: Английский

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Climate‐influenced phenology of larval fish transport in a large lake

Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(4), P. 376 - 387

Published: June 5, 2024

Abstract Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch fish larvae throughout an illustrative lake, (2) evaluate patterns historic potential future climate‐induced transport, (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore increases seasonally, shifts toward occurring earlier during relatively warm simulations. Intra‐ inter‐annual trends were robust to assumed pelagic duration precise location timing hatching. Larvae retained nearshore generally encountered more favorable zooplankton densities compared transported offshore. Larval exploitation resources under climate change may depend on concomitant shift spawning times advance transport.

Language: Английский

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Potential reduction in carbon fixation capacity under climate change in a Pinus koraiensis forest

Forest Ecosystems, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11, P. 100183 - 100183

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

There has been an increasing recognition of the crucial role forests, responsible for sequestering atmospheric CO2, as a moral imperative mitigating pace climate change. The complexity evaluating change impacts on forest carbon and water dynamics lay in diverse acclimations forests to changing environments. In this study, we assessed two most common acclimation traits, namely leaf area index maximum rate carboxylation (Vcmax), explore potential pathways Pinus koraiensis under We used mechanistic process-based ecohydrological model applied Mt. Taehwa, South Korea. conducted numerical investigations into (i) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 (SSP2-4.5) 5–8.5 (SSP5-8.5), (ii) elevated CO2 temperature, (iii) Vcmax koraiensis. found that there was reduction net primary productivity (NPP) SSP2-4.5 scenario, but not SSP5-8.5, compared baseline, due imbalance between increases temperature. A decrease increase were expected if made reduce its Under such pathways, it would be well-known fertilizer effects NPP attenuated.

Language: Английский

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Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(6), P. e0304718 - e0304718

Published: June 6, 2024

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences many ocean-reliant sectors. For the fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic political factors. This raises need for robust projections capture range of potential biological economic risks opportunities posed climate fisheries. Here, we project changes in abundance eight commercially important fish crab species eastern Bering Sea Chukchi under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading contrasting (2021–2100) scenarios warming, sea ice concentration, net primary production. Our results revealed patterns distribution across species, time periods scenarios, highlighting winners losers change. In particular, least were observed SSP126. However, extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod snow abundances increased decreased, respectively, concurrent zonal meridional shifts their centers gravity. Importantly, suggest that fishing at same distance from current major port (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches highly valuable (e.g., crab) SSP585. driven strong decreases despite minimal declines maximum catch potential, which are dominated less taxa. Hence, our findings show shifting distributions productivity commercial subsistence seas, implications effective management transboundary resources.

Language: Английский

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Winners and losers in US marine aquaculture under climate change

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(11), P. 114024 - 114024

Published: Sept. 3, 2024

Abstract Mariculture will be important to meeting global seafood food demand in the coming decades. Yet, threat of climate change—such as rising ocean temperatures—on mariculture performance remains uncertain. This is particularly true at small spatial scales relevant most producers. Additionally, often limited by regulations that impose restrictions on production, creating potential hurdles for anticipating and adapting change. We focus United States (U.S.), where state federal policies exposure change vary substantially likely interact. map a current future index combining first high resolution downscaled (0.083°) outputs U.S. waters, species-specific physiological requirements, policy restrictions. find increase under warming oceans, with variation amplify existing regional differences. Generally, north decrease south. While permitting process not intentionally climate-forward, permitted species outperformed taxon averages, yet limit production seaweeds finfishes, which perform well. Thus, we sit critical juncture could capitalize its seemingly favorable environmental conditions through re-alignment support portfolio diversification include climate-resilient species.

Language: Английский

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