Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic–Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios DOI
Ryan E Brodie, Nicholas J. Bayly,

Ana M. González

et al.

Ornithological Applications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 19, 2024

ABSTRACT Climate and land use/land cover change are expected to influence the stationary nonbreeding distributions of 4 Nearctic–Neotropical migrant bird species experiencing population declines: Cardellina canadensis (Canada Warbler), Setophaga cerulea (Cerulean Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Hylocichla mustelina (Wood Thrush). Understanding how where these species’ shift in response environmental drivers is critical inform conservation planning Neotropics. For each species, we quantified current (2012 2021) projected future (2050) suitable climatic conditions as components distributions. Multi-source occurrence data were used an ensemble modeling approach with covariates from 3 global coupled climate models (CMCC-ESM2, FIO-ESM-2-0, MIROC-ES2L) 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) predict varying conditions. Our findings suggest that distribution contraction, upslope elevational shifts conditions, limited latitude longitude will occur species. S. experience a moderate contraction (7% 29% 19% 43%, respectively), primarily temperature changes. The V. was modeled by sex, females males major (56% 79% loss for females, 46% 65% males), accompanied peak densities higher elevations minimal changes upper elevation limit. Expected precipitation had greatest effect on chrysoptera. experienced smallest change, consistent flexibility habitat selection broader range. We recommend defining priority areas those remain or arise next 25 years. particular, it urgent ensure mid-elevation forests Costa Rica Honduras adequately managed protected.

Language: Английский

Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic–Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios DOI
Ryan E Brodie, Nicholas J. Bayly,

Ana M. González

et al.

Ornithological Applications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 19, 2024

ABSTRACT Climate and land use/land cover change are expected to influence the stationary nonbreeding distributions of 4 Nearctic–Neotropical migrant bird species experiencing population declines: Cardellina canadensis (Canada Warbler), Setophaga cerulea (Cerulean Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Hylocichla mustelina (Wood Thrush). Understanding how where these species’ shift in response environmental drivers is critical inform conservation planning Neotropics. For each species, we quantified current (2012 2021) projected future (2050) suitable climatic conditions as components distributions. Multi-source occurrence data were used an ensemble modeling approach with covariates from 3 global coupled climate models (CMCC-ESM2, FIO-ESM-2-0, MIROC-ES2L) 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) predict varying conditions. Our findings suggest that distribution contraction, upslope elevational shifts conditions, limited latitude longitude will occur species. S. experience a moderate contraction (7% 29% 19% 43%, respectively), primarily temperature changes. The V. was modeled by sex, females males major (56% 79% loss for females, 46% 65% males), accompanied peak densities higher elevations minimal changes upper elevation limit. Expected precipitation had greatest effect on chrysoptera. experienced smallest change, consistent flexibility habitat selection broader range. We recommend defining priority areas those remain or arise next 25 years. particular, it urgent ensure mid-elevation forests Costa Rica Honduras adequately managed protected.

Language: Английский

Citations

1