State of Wildfires 2023–2024

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 3601 - 3685

Published: Aug. 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).

Language: Английский

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Bridging gaps in research and practice for early warning systems: new datasets for public response

Frontiers in Communication, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

Early warning systems (EWSs) are essential for disaster and crisis response, applicable across a wide range of hazards threats. They increasingly recognized as pivotal in cross-disciplinary contexts, where diverse expertise is required to manage cascading, compound, interconnected risks holistically. Despite their critical role, significant gaps persist understanding the interplay between technical, social, organizational elements that underpin effective systems. Drawing on insights from literature our work global datasets, such World Risk Poll, this comment paper highlights four key areas: (1) leveraging public behaviors responses enhance effectiveness; (2) role trust information sources its influence reception; (3) identifying limitations existing analyses; (4) addressing operational challenges data accessibility harmonization. We propose coherent approach utilizes multi-country surveys establish common benchmark these issues, shared patterns geographies, improving management complex events cross-border crises. This benchmarking effort could reveal actionable into regional drivers EWS effectiveness, ultimately fostering greater international cooperation advancing socio-technical integration risk knowledge resilience.

Language: Английский

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Post‐Fire Sediment Yield From a Western Sierra Nevada Watershed Burned by the 2021 Caldor Fire

Earth and Space Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Watershed sediment yield commonly increases after wildfire, often causing negative impacts to downstream infrastructure and water resources. Post‐fire erosion is important understand quantify because it increasingly placing supplies, habitat, communities, at risk as fire regimes intensify in a warming climate. However, measurements of post‐fire mobilization are lacking from many regions. We measured forested, heavily managed 25.4‐km 2 watershed the western Sierra Nevada, California, over years following 2021 Caldor Fire, by repeat mapping reservoir where accumulated terrain with moderate high soil burn severity. Sediment was less than geochronology‐derived long‐term average first year (conservatively estimated 21.8–28.0 t/km ), low enough be difficult measure uncrewed airborne system (UAS) bathymetric sonar survey methods that most effective detecting larger sedimentary signals. In second delivery 1,560–2,010 , an order magnitude above values, attributable greater precipitation intensive salvage logging. Hillslope simulated Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model overestimated amount factor 90 (1.9) aligned previously determined performance northern California. encourage additional field studies, validation models feasible, further expand range conditions informing hazard assessments management decisions.

Language: Английский

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Wildfire Risk Assessment in Ambato, Ecuador: Drought Impacts, Fuel Dynamics, and Wildland–Urban Interface Vulnerability

Fire, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(4), P. 130 - 130

Published: March 27, 2025

Wildfires represent an increasing threat to ecosystems and communities, driven by climate change, fuel dynamics, human activities. In Ambato, Ecuador, a city in the Andean highlands, these risks are exacerbated prolonged droughts, vegetation dryness, urban expansion into fire-prone areas within Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). This study integrates climatic, ecological, socio-economic data from 2017 2023 assess wildfire risks, employing advanced geospatial tools, thematic mapping, machine learning models, including Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), Random Forest, XGBoost. By segmenting area 1 km2 grid cells, microscale risk variations were captured, enabling classification five categories: ‘Very Low’, ‘Low’, ‘Moderate’, ‘High’, High’. Results indicate that temperature anomalies, reduced moisture, anthropogenic factors such as waste burning unregulated land-use changes significantly increase fire susceptibility. Predictive models achieved accuracies of 76.04% 77.6% (Random Forest), 76.5% (XGBoost), effectively identifying high-risk zones. The highest-risk found Izamba, Pasa, San Fernando, where over 884.9 ha burned between 2023. year 2020 recorded most severe season (1500 burned), coinciding with extended droughts COVID-19 lockdowns. Findings emphasize urgent need for enhanced regulations, improved firefighting infrastructure, community-driven prevention strategies. research provides replicable framework assessment, applicable other regions beyond. integrating data-driven methodologies policy recommendations, this contributes evidence-based mitigation resilience planning climate-sensitive environments.

Language: Английский

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State of Wildfires 2023–24

Published: June 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Review period

Published: June 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km² burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Comment on essd-2024-218

Published: June 21, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km² burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Comment on essd-2024-218

Published: June 26, 2024

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regional research concentration. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these to climate land use, forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–24 season, 3.9 million km² burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. was driven record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) dampened reduced African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking wildfire extent Canada, largest recorded European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawai’i (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels increased probability 4.5-fold 1.9–4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load direct suppression often modulated anomalous area. The season predictable three months advance based index, had shorter predictability horizons. Formal indicated has significantly due anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude are projected occur 2.22–9.58 more frequently emission Without mitigation, regions like Western could see up 2.9-fold events. For 2024–25 seasonal forecasts highlight moderate positive anomalies for no clear signal present forecast. represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society’s resilience promote advances preparedness, adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Effects of Fuel Removal on the Flammability of Surface Fuels in Betula platyphylla in the Wildland–Urban Interface

Fire, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(7), P. 261 - 261

Published: July 22, 2024

This paper aimed to provide technical support for fuel management by exploring different strengths of removal on the physical and chemical properties flammability Betula platyphylla forests in wildland–urban interface. After investigating northeastern region during forest fire prevention period May 2023, a typical WUI area was selected, three treatment strengths, combined with control, were set up carry out indoor outdoor experiments 27 weeks. Compared previous studies, this study mainly investigated analyzed dynamic changes after intensities treatments time scale. By processing analyzing data, following results obtained. Significant differences existed loading time-lag fuels over (p < 0.05). The ash ignition point 1 h generally increased first then decreased, higher heat value ash-free calorific decreased increased. 10 100 fluctuated time, but overall change insignificant. indicator that had greatest impact combustion comprehensive score loading. dead surface varied significantly, effectively reduced fuel’s flammability. reduction effects, presented descending order, as follows: medium-strength > low-strength high-strength control check. In conclusion, have significant effects fuel, has best effect. Considering ecological economic benefits, adopting regulate is recommended.

Language: Английский

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The Impact of the Maui Wildfires on Economic Sustainability, Public Awareness, and Environmental Stewardship in Hawai’i

IntechOpen eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 2, 2024

In 2023, the Maui wildfires caused extensive damage, burning over 2170 acres and destroying approximately 2207 structures. This paper examines origins of wildfires, their economic impacts, shifts in public awareness towards wildfire risks environmental sustainability. The driven by a combination severe drought, strong winds, downed power lines, significantly disrupted Maui’s tourism-dependent economy, resulting substantial property business interruptions, increased unemployment. Long-term consequences include depreciated real estate values heightened food insecurity. study highlights growing engagement disaster preparedness integration traditional Hawaiian ecological knowledge with contemporary management strategies. Restoration efforts emphasize sustainable land management, including invasive species control community-based approaches to rebuilding. My findings underscore necessity for proactive practices, Hawaii’s indigenous enhance resilience ensure long-term recovery Hawai’i.

Language: Английский

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