The impact of risk compensation adaptive behavior on the final epidemic size

Mathematical Biosciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380, P. 109370 - 109370

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 291(2033)

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

The multiple immunity responses exhibited in the population and co-circulating variants documented during pandemics show a high potential to generate diverse long-term epidemiological scenarios. Transmission variability, immune uncertainties human behaviour are crucial features for predictability implementation of effective mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, effects individual health incentives on disease dynamics not well understood. We use behavioural-immuno-epidemiological model study joint evolution epidemic different Our results reveal trade-off between individuals’ levels behavioural produced. find that adaptive can avoid dynamical resonance by avoiding large outbreaks, producing subsequent uniform outbreaks. forward-looking shows an optimal planning horizon minimizes burden balancing risk–benefit trade-off. compensate differential levels, equalizing scenarios with underlying landscapes. adequately capture complex empirical observed pandemics. tested our US states COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we explored extensions modelling framework incorporate lockdowns, emergence novel variant, prosocial attitudes pandemic fatigue.

Language: Английский

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A Simultaneous Simulation of Human Behavior Dynamics and Epidemic Spread: A Multi-Country Study Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematical Biosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 109368 - 109368

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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