National commitments to Aichi Targets and their implications for monitoring the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

npj Biodiversity, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: April 3, 2024

Abstract The Convention on Biological Biodiversity (CBD) exists as a major multilateral environmental agreement to safeguard biodiversity and “live in harmony with nature”. To deliver it, strategies frameworks are set out regular agreements that then implemented at the national scale. However, we not track achieve overall goals, so far have been successful. This could be due unambitious targets, low follow-through commitments, or desired outcomes for nature being achieved when action is taken. Here, focus planning reporting documents from of 30% Parties CBD. We found nearly half commitments mentioned did appear Sixth National Reports further losses emerged measures reported incomplete ineffective. There were differences between each Aichi Targets, more high-profile “institutionally challenging” Targets. Commitments different Human Development Index categories had among self-identifying “megadiverse countries” higher rates success. Our results important informing monitoring commitment implementation Kunming-Montreal “global package”.

Language: Английский

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Model‐based variance partitioning for statistical ecology

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 95(1)

Published: Jan. 15, 2025

Abstract Variance partitioning is a common tool for statistical analysis and interpretation in both observational experimental studies ecology. Its popularity has led to proliferation of methods with sometimes confusing or contradicting interpretations. Here, we present variance model‐based Bayesian framework as general summarizing interpreting regression‐like models produce additional insight on ecological compared what traditional parameter inference these its own can reveal. For example, propose predictive extend sample‐based analyses whole populations scenarios. We also encompass within between ecologically relevant subgroups the observations, population interest, provide information how relative roles processes underlying study system may vary depending environmental context. discuss role correlated covariates random effects highlight uncertainty quantification partitioning. To showcase utility our approach, case comprising simple occupancy model metapopulation Glanville fritillary butterfly. As result, demonstrate rigorous gain more from data.

Language: Английский

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Interoperability for ecosystem service assessments: Why, how, who, and for whom?

Ecosystem Services, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 72, P. 101705 - 101705

Published: March 4, 2025

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the ecological consequences of climate change in coastal ecosystems

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Few coastal ecosystems remain untouched by direct human activities, and none are unimpacted anthropogenic climate change. These drivers interact with exacerbate each other in complex ways, yielding a mosaic of ecological consequences that range from adaptive responses, such as geographic shifts changes phenology, to severe impacts, mass mortalities, regime loss biodiversity. Identifying the role change these phenomena requires corroborating evidence multiple lines evidence, including laboratory experiments, field observations, numerical models palaeorecords. Yet few studies can confidently quantify magnitude effect attributable solely change, because seldom acts alone ecosystems. Projections future risk further complicated scenario uncertainty – is, our lack knowledge about degree which humanity will mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions, or make ways we impact Irrespective, ocean warming would be impossible reverse before end century, sea levels likely continue rise for centuries elevated millennia. Therefore, risks projected mirror impacts already observed, severity escalating cumulative emissions. Promising avenues progress beyond qualitative assessments include collaborative modelling initiatives, model intercomparison projects, use broader systems. But reduce rapidly reducing emissions greenhouse gases, restoring damaged habitats, regulating non-climate stressors using climate-smart conservation actions, implementing inclusive coastal-zone management approaches, especially those involving nature-based solutions.

Language: Английский

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Global monitoring for biodiversity: Uncertainty, risk, and power analyses to support trend change detection

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(7)

Published: Feb. 16, 2024

Global targets aim to reverse biodiversity declines by 2050 but require knowledge of current trends and future projections under policy intervention. First, given uncertainty in measurement trends, we propose a risk framework, considering probability magnitude decline. While only 11 198 systems analyzed (taxonomic groups country from the Living Planet Database) showed declining abundance with high certainty, 20% had 70% chance strong declines. Society needs decide acceptable risks loss. Second, calculated statistical power detect trend change using ~12,000 populations 62 currently showing Current hinders our ability assess improvements. Trend is detectable certainty 14 systems, even if thousands are sampled, conservation action reduces net zero immediately, on average. We provide potential solutions improve monitoring progress toward targets.

Language: Английский

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Monitoring ecosystem services with essential ecosystem service variables

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 22(8)

Published: Aug. 7, 2024

In the Anthropocene, ecosystems are changing along with their capacity to support human well‐being. Monitoring ecosystem services (ESs) is required assess state of human–nature interactions. To standardize monitoring multiple facets ESs, Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) recently proposed essential service variables (EESVs), which organized into six classes: Ecological Supply , Use Demand Anthropogenic Contribution Instrumental Value and Relational . We apply EESV framework three case studies in British Columbia, Canada, each targeting a single ES. Using trend intervention analysis, we show how EESVs affected by policy. discuss key challenges solutions while providing guidance quantify EESVs. Finally, demonstrate potential harmonize metrics across conceptual frameworks, monitor ES change, provide decision progress under various international policy conventions.

Language: Английский

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Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 378(1881)

Published: May 29, 2023

This issue addresses the multifaceted problems of understanding biodiversity change to meet emerging international development and conservation goals, national economic accounting diverse community needs. Recent agreements highlight need establish monitoring assessment programmes at regional levels. We identify an opportunity for research develop methods robust detection attribution that will contribute assessments guide action. The 16 contributions this address six major aspects assessment: connecting policy science, establishing observation, improving statistical estimation, detecting change, attributing causes projecting future. These studies are led by experts in Indigenous studies, economics, ecology, conservation, statistics, computer with representations from Asia, Africa, South America, North America Europe. results place science context needs provide updated roadmap how observe a way supports action via science. article is part theme ‘Detecting change: needs, gaps solutions’

Language: Английский

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Multiple dimensions of extreme weather events and their impacts on biodiversity

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 176(11)

Published: Nov. 1, 2023

Abstract Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon. As such, no single metric can capture all trajectories of and associated impacts. While numerous metrics exist to measure climate change, they tend focus on central tendencies neglect the multidimensionality extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs differ in their frequency, duration, intensity, be described for temperature, precipitation, wind speed, while considering different thresholds defining “extremeness.” We review existing EWE outline framework classifying interpreting them light foreseeable impacts biodiversity. Using an example drawn from Caribbean Central America, we show that reflect unequal spatial patterns exposure across region. Based available evidence, discuss how such relate threats biological populations, empirically demonstrating ecologically informed help processes as mangrove recovery. Unveiling complexity affecting biodiversity only possible through mobilisation plethora metrics. The proposed represents step forward over assessments using dimensions or averages highly variable time series.

Language: Английский

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Habitat suitability models reveal the spatial signal of environmental DNA in riverine networks

Ecography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2024(8)

Published: May 30, 2024

The rapid loss of biodiversity in freshwater systems asks for a robust and spatially explicit understanding species' occurrences. As two complementing approaches, habitat suitability models provide information about potential occurrence, while environmental DNA (eDNA) based assessments indication actual occurrence. Individually, both approaches are used ecological studies to characterize biodiversity, yet they rarely combined. Here, we integrated high‐resolution with eDNA‐based aquatic invertebrates riverine networks understand their individual combined capacity inform on We eDNA sampling data from 172 river sites the detection taxa three insect orders (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera; hereafter EPT) suitable predictions at subcatchment level (2 km 2 ). Overall, find congruence detections. Yet, predicted habitats beyond number detections by sampling, congruent niche being larger than realized niche. For local mismatches, where detected species but was not suitable, calculated minimal distance upstream patches, indicating possible sources signals subsequently transported along water flow. estimated median 1.06 (range 0.2–42 km) transport suitability, this significantly smaller expected null model predictions. This is range previously reported values allows extrapolations distances across many systems. Together, combination scale integrative inferences ultimately needed management protection biodiversity.

Language: Английский

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Monitoring Changes in the Enhanced Vegetation Index to Inform the Management of Forests

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(16), P. 2919 - 2919

Published: Aug. 9, 2024

In the absence of forest ecosystem time series data, monitoring proxies such as enhanced vegetation index (EVI) can inform capacity forests to provide services. We used MODIS-derived EVI at 250 m and 16-day resolution Breaks for Additive Seasonal Trend (BFAST) algorithms monitor changes (breaks trends) in around Algonquin Provincial Park (Ontario, Canada) from 2003 2022. found that relatively little change occurred pixels most non-protected areas. Only 5.3% (12,348) experienced one or more breaks 27.8% showed detectable trends. Most were negative (11,969, 75.3%; positive breaks: 3935, 24.7%) with a median magnitude −755.5 (median magnitude: 722.6). A peak (2487, 21%) year 2013 while no clear was seen among breaks. (negative positive) trends eastern region study area. Boosted regression trees revealed important predictors age, summer droughts, warm winters. These variables explained (R2 = 0.639) 0.352). Forest composition protection status only marginally important. Future work should focus on assessing spatial clusters understand local drivers health their potential relation

Language: Английский

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