Landscape of Fear: Indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies DOI Open Access

Dániel Kondor,

James S. Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn

et al.

Published: July 27, 2023

The impact of inter-group conflict on population dynamics has long been debated, especially for prehistoric and non-state societies. In this work, we consider that beyond direct battle casualties, conflicts can also create a “landscape fear” in which many non-combatants near theaters abandon their homes migrate away. This process causes decline the abandoned regions increased stress local resources better protected areas are targeted by refugees. By applying analytical computational modeling, demonstrate these indirect effects sufficient to produce substantial, long-term boom-and-bust patterns societies, such as case Mid-Holocene Europe. We greater availability defensible locations, acting protect maintain supply combatants, increases permanence landscape fear likelihood endemic warfare.

Language: Английский

Spatiotemporal distribution of the North American Indigenous population prior to European contact DOI Creative Commons
Robert L. Kelly, Madeline E. Mackie, Spencer R. Pelton

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 122(6)

Published: Feb. 3, 2025

We examine spatiotemporal trends in the pre-European-contact Indigenous population of North America using radiocarbon ( 14 C) dates past 2000 y. At a continental scale, ~14,000 y peaked at ~1150 CE and then declined until brief recovery shortly before 1500 CE, after which C probability declines precipitously. After testing, we reject hypothesis that 1150 peak decline is result sampling issues. record each 18 watersheds where find peaks ranging from ~800 to 770 European contact, with majority, interior continent, declining ~1080 1300 CE. Although all populations large portion country (the Great Lakes, New England, Mid-Atlantic, Central Plains, Northwest, California) did not contact.

Language: Английский

Citations

1

The long-term expansion and recession of human populations DOI
Jacob Freeman, Erick Robinson, Darcy Bird

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(12)

Published: March 11, 2024

Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in environmental social sciences remains: Why did grow and, sometimes, decline first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological studying deep time dynamics to propose an explanation for long-term growth stability populations. Innovations productive capacity fuels exponential-like over thousands years; however, innovations saturate often, may leave vulnerable large recessions their well-being population density. Empirically, we find trade-off between changes land use that increase production consumption carbohydrates, driving repeated waves years, susceptibility due lag impact humans resources. These results shed light drivers decline.

Language: Английский

Citations

7

Positive feedbacks in deep-time transitions of human populations DOI Creative Commons
Maurício Lima, Eugenia M. Gayó, Sergio A. Estay

et al.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(1893)

Published: Nov. 13, 2023

Abrupt and rapid changes in human societies are among the most exciting population phenomena. Human populations tend to show expansions from low high density along with increased social complexity just a few generations. Such demographic transitions appear as remarkable feature of Homo sapiens dynamics, likely fuelled by ability accumulate cultural/technological innovations that actively modify their environment. We especially interested establishing if pre-historic same dynamic signature Industrial Revolution transition (a positive relationship between growth rates size). Our results patterns across different were similar those observed during developed western societies. These features, which have been operating our recent history hunter-gatherers modern industrial societies, imply dynamics cooperation underlay sudden This article is part theme issue 'Evolution sustainability: gathering strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Language: Английский

Citations

15

Environmental Pollution in Agriculture Sector; Current Trend and Future Impacts DOI
Nor Hawani Salikin, Muhammad Jalil,

Aleena Yaaqub

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Territorial Spatial Conflicts and Construction Land Expansion in Guizhou Province: A 40-Year Perspective DOI Creative Commons
Huaiyu Wang, Liu Yang, Hongzan Jiao

et al.

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 507 - 507

Published: Feb. 28, 2025

Territorial spatial conflicts (TSCs) refer to a contradiction of utilization resulting from the inconsistency needs and objectives different subjects interest for resources in planning, utilization, management. This research aimed unveil TSCs, construction land expansion (CLE), their relationship Guizhou Province 1980 2020, both temporally spatially. paper established indicators assess CLE, including velocity, intensity, pattern analyze characteristics Province. At same time, territorial conflict indicator (SCII) was constructed study TSCs Province, its evolution explored through cold hotspot analysis. On this basis, it investigated linkage between CLE ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model geographically weighted (GWR) model. Furthermore, also an economic elasticity coefficient population collaborative GDP along with volume. The revealed that while velocity intensity have escalated over displayed considerable geographical variation across various locations. Simultaneously, intensified, demonstrating slight positive correlation expansion. temporal response provided reference optimization regional space. It is highly valuable significant fostering efficient resources, adjusting social transformations, improving scientific rigor planning.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis DOI Creative Commons
Peter Søgaard Jørgensen, Vanessa P. Weinberger, Timothy M. Waring

et al.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(1893)

Published: Nov. 12, 2023

How did human societies evolve to become a major force of global change? What dynamics can lead on trajectory sustainability? The astonishing growth in population, economic activity and environmental impact has brought these questions the fore. This theme issue pulls together variety traditions that seek address using different theories methods. In this Introduction, we review organize strands work how Anthropocene evolved, evolutionary are influencing sustainability efforts today, what principles, strategies capacities will be important guide us towards future. We present set synthetic insights highlight frontiers for future research which could contribute consolidated synthesis. article is part 'Evolution sustainability: gathering an synthesis'.

Language: Английский

Citations

9

Our fragile future under the cumulative cultural evolution of two technologies DOI
Charles Efferson, Peter J. Richerson, Vanessa P. Weinberger

et al.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(1893)

Published: Nov. 13, 2023

We derive and analyse a model with unusual features characterizing human activities over the long-run. First, population dynamics draw heavily on consumer-resource modelling in ecology that humans must consume biological resources to produce new humans. Second, also draws from economic growth theory do not simply resources; they consume. Finally, use two types of technology. Consumption technology affects rate at which can extract resources. Production controls how effectively convert labour into The both are subject cumulative cultural evolutionary processes allow technological progress regress. resulting exhibits wide range dynamical regimes. That said, system is routinely sensitive initial conditions, wildly different outcomes given same parameter values. Moreover, basic fragility sense often lead endogenous extinction species. This happen gently, or it follow periods explosive activity super-exponential ends collapse. article part theme issue 'Evolution sustainability: gathering strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Language: Английский

Citations

8

Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing DOI Creative Commons
Axel Timmermann,

Abdul Wasay,

Pasquale Raia

et al.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 291(2024)

Published: June 1, 2024

Over the history of humankind, cultural innovations have helped improve survival and adaptation to environmental stress. This has led an overall increase in human population size, which turn further contributed cumulative learning. During Anthropocene, or arguably even earlier, this positive sociodemographic feedback caused a strong decline important resources that, coupled with projected future transgression planetary boundaries, may potentially reverse long-term trend growth. Here, we present simple consumer/resource model that captures dynamics stochastic learning transmission, growth resource depletion changing environment. The idealized mathematical simulates boom/bust cycles between low-population subsistence, high-density exploitation subsequent decline. For slow recovery time scales absence climate forcing, predicts global collapse. Including simplified periodic find innovation can couple climatic forcing via nonlinear phase synchronization. We discuss relevance finding context innovation, anthropological record resilience our own predatory species.

Language: Английский

Citations

2

Landscape of fear: indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies DOI

Dániel Kondor,

James S. Bennett, Detlef Gronenborn

et al.

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21(217)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

The impact of inter-group conflict on population dynamics has long been debated, especially for prehistoric and non-state societies. In this work, we consider that beyond direct battle casualties, conflicts can also create a ‘landscape fear’ in which many non-combatants near theatres abandon their homes migrate away. This process causes decline the abandoned regions increased stress local resources better-protected areas are targeted by refugees. By applying analytical computational modelling, demonstrate these indirect effects sufficient to produce substantial, long-term boom-and-bust patterns societies, such as case Mid-Holocene Europe. We greater availability defensible locations act protect maintain supply combatants, increasing permanence landscape fear likelihood endemic warfare.

Language: Английский

Citations

2

Towards understanding human–environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case DOI Creative Commons
Eugenia M. Gayó, Maurício Lima,

Andone Gurruchaga

et al.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(1893)

Published: Nov. 13, 2023

The overall trajectory for the human-environment interaction has been punctuated by demographic boom-and-bust cycles, phases of growth/overshooting as well expansion/contraction in productivity. Although this pattern explained terms an interplay between population growth, social upscaling, ecosystem engineering and climate variability, evoked demographic-resource-complexity mechanisms have not empirically tested. By integrating proxy data sizes, palaeoclimate internal societal factors into empirical modelling approaches from dynamic theory, we evaluated how endogenous (population warfare upscaling) exogenous (climate) variables module past agrarian societies. We focused on inland Atacama Desert, where populations developed agriculture activities arid semi-arid landscapes during last 2000 years. Our approach indicates that these experienced a over millennia, which was coupled to structure feedback hydroclimate, engineering. Thus, loop appears closely linked with cooperation, competition, limiting resources ability problem-solving. This article is part theme issue 'Evolution sustainability: gathering strands Anthropocene synthesis'.

Language: Английский

Citations

5