Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
380(1917)
Published: Jan. 9, 2025
Anthropogenic
climate
change
is
projected
to
become
a
major
driver
of
biodiversity
loss,
destabilizing
the
ecosystems
on
which
human
society
depends.
As
planet
rapidly
warms,
disruption
ecological
interactions
among
populations,
species
and
their
environment,
will
likely
drive
positive
feedback
loops,
accelerating
pace
magnitude
losses.
We
propose
that,
even
without
invoking
such
amplifying
feedback,
loss
should
increase
nonlinearly
with
warming
because
non-uniform
distribution
biodiversity.
Whether
these
non-uniformities
are
uneven
populations
across
species’
thermal
niche,
or
niche
limits
within
an
community,
we
show
that
in
both
cases,
resulting
clustering
population
tolerances
drives
nonlinear
increases
risk
discuss
how
fundamental
constraints
physiologies
geographical
distributions
give
rise
clustered
tolerances,
responses
changing
climates
could
variously
temper,
delay
intensify
dynamics.
argue
risks
be
null
expectation
under
warming,
highlight
empirical
research
needed
understand
causes,
commonness
consequences
better
predict
where,
when
why
losses
occur.
This
article
part
discussion
meeting
issue
‘Bending
curve
towards
nature
recovery:
building
Georgina
Mace’s
legacy
for
biodiverse
future’.
Language: Английский
How should we bend the curve of biodiversity loss to build a just and sustainable future?
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
380(1917)
Published: Jan. 9, 2025
Current
rates
of
habitat
and
biodiversity
loss,
the
threat
they
pose
to
ecological
economic
productivity,
would
be
considered
a
global
emergency
even
if
were
not
occurring
during
period
rapid
anthropogenic
climate
change.
Diversity
at
all
levels
biological
organization,
both
within
among
species,
across
genomes
communities,
is
critical
for
resilience
world’s
ecosystems
in
face
such
However,
it
remains
an
urgent
scientific
challenge
understand
how
underpins
these
outputs,
patterns
are
being
affected
by
current
threats,
where
contributes
most
directly
human
economies,
well-being
social
justice.
In
addition,
with
understanding,
there
pressing
need
societies
incorporate
protection
into
their
economies
governance,
stop
subsidizing
loss
humanity’s
future
prosperity
short-term
private
benefit.
We
highlight
key
issues
ways
forward
areas,
inspired
research
career
Dame
Georgina
Mace
FRS,
our
discussions
Royal
Society
meeting
June
2023.
This
article
part
discussion
issue
‘Bending
curve
towards
nature
recovery:
building
on
Mace's
legacy
biodiverse
future’.
Language: Английский