Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21(216)

Published: July 1, 2024

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared previous outbreaks. Sexual contact hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and community men having sex (MSM) disproportionately affected. Because stigma associated sexually transmitted infections, real burden mpox could be masked. We quantified basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) underestimated fraction cases in 16 countries, from onset outbreak until early September using Bayesian inference compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated ranged between 1.37 (Canada) 3.68 (Germany). The rates for high- low-risk populations varied 25–93% 65–85%, respectively. estimated total cases, relative reported is highest Colombia (3.60) lowest Canada (1.08). ML analysis, two clusters countries identified, differing terms attitudes towards 2SLGBTQIAP+ importance religion. Given substantial underestimation, surveillance should enhanced, country-specific campaigns against stigmatization MSM organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

Language: Английский

Mobile Mpox Vaccination in New York City Provided Flexible Community-Responsive Vaccine Access During the 2022 Global Mpox Emergency

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский