Impact of Ukrainian Refugees on the COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics after 24 February 2022
Computation,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
12(4), P. 70 - 70
Published: April 3, 2024
The
full-scale
invasion
of
Ukraine
caused
an
unprecedented
number
refugees
after
24
February
2022.
To
estimate
the
influence
this
humanitarian
disaster
on
COVID-19
pandemic
dynamics,
smoothed
daily
numbers
cases
in
Ukraine,
UK,
Poland,
Germany,
Republic
Moldova,
and
whole
world
were
calculated
compared
with
values
predicted
by
generalized
SIR
model.
In
March
2022,
increase
new
worldwide
was
visible.
A
simple
formula
to
effective
reproduction
based
accumulated
is
proposed.
results
calculations
agree
figures
presented
John
Hopkins
University
demonstrate
a
short-term
growth
Language: Английский
Impact of Ukrainian refugees on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics after February 24, 2022
Published: Jan. 10, 2024
On
February
24,
2022
Russia
started
the
full-scale
invasion
of
Ukraine,
which
created
an
unprecedented
number
refugees.
To
estimate
influence
this
humanitarian
disaster
on
COVID-19
pandemic
dynamics,
averaged
daily
numbers
cases
and
reproduction
in
UK,
Poland,
Germany,
Republic
Moldova,
whole
world
were
calculated
for
period
February-April
2022.
The
registered
compared
with
ones
use
generalized
SIR-model
corresponding
parameter
identification
procedure
previous
epidemic
waves
world.
Since
before
estimation
infectious
persons
per
capita
Ukraine
3.6
times
exceeded
global
figure,
increase
new
duration
was
expected.
In
March
worldwide
visible.
A
simple
formula
to
effective
based
smoothed
accumulated
is
proposed.
results
calculations
agree
figures
presented
by
John
Hopkins
University
demonstrate
a
short-term
growth
Language: Английский
Two waves of the pertussis epidemic in England in 2023 and 2024
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory),
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: April 30, 2024
Summary
The
resurgence
of
pertussis
(whooping
cough)
becomes
a
serious
problem
in
many
countries
including
the
UK.
Differentiation
accumulated
monthly
numbers
cases
registered
England
2023
and
2024
revealed
two
waves
epidemic
before
after
October
2023.
Identification
parameters
SIR
(susceptible-infectious-removed)
model
allowed
calculating
infectious
persons
reproduction
rates.
daily
duration
first
wave
were
predicted.
If
influence
second
will
be
not
very
significant,
new
stop
to
appear
end
August
2025
reaching
figure
5.8
thousand.
maximum
average
is
expected
around
51
on
9-10
May
2024.
Since
effective
number
close
its
critical
value
1.0,
probably
outbreaks
high.
the,
increase
percentage
vaccinated
people
could
decrease
this
probability.
Language: Английский