A mechanistic statistical approach to infer invasion characteristics of human‐dispersed species with complex life cycle DOI
Nikunj Goel, Andrew M. Liebhold, Cléo Bertelsmeier

et al.

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 95(1)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Abstract The rising introduction of invasive species through trade networks threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, we have a limited understanding how transportation determine spatiotemporal patterns range expansion. This knowledge gap may stem from two reasons. First, current analytical models fail to integrate the invader's life‐history dynamics with heterogeneity in human‐mediated dispersal patterns. Second, classical statistical methods often provide reliable estimates model parameters, such as time place characteristics, due spatial biases presence‐only records lack informative demographic data. To address these gaps, first formulate an age‐structured metapopulation that uses probability matrix emulate reveals invader spreads radially along shortest network path, inter‐patch distances decrease increasing traffic volume reproductive value hitchhikers. Next, propose hierarchical Bayesian method estimate parameters using data prior knowledge. show utility approach, analyze zebra mussel ( Dreissena polymorpha ) expansion North America inland commercial shipping network. Our analysis suggests mussels might been introduced before 1981, indicating lag 5 years between detection late 1986. Furthermore, our model, estimated one three chance they were near Kingsville (Ontario, Canada), where reported. We also find survival, fecundity, during early life (1–2 years) play critical role determining success mollusks. These results underscore importance fusing scientific observation processes framework for conceptual practical spread by human agency.

Language: Английский

A mechanistic statistical approach to infer invasion characteristics of human‐dispersed species with complex life cycle DOI
Nikunj Goel, Andrew M. Liebhold, Cléo Bertelsmeier

et al.

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 95(1)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Abstract The rising introduction of invasive species through trade networks threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, we have a limited understanding how transportation determine spatiotemporal patterns range expansion. This knowledge gap may stem from two reasons. First, current analytical models fail to integrate the invader's life‐history dynamics with heterogeneity in human‐mediated dispersal patterns. Second, classical statistical methods often provide reliable estimates model parameters, such as time place characteristics, due spatial biases presence‐only records lack informative demographic data. To address these gaps, first formulate an age‐structured metapopulation that uses probability matrix emulate reveals invader spreads radially along shortest network path, inter‐patch distances decrease increasing traffic volume reproductive value hitchhikers. Next, propose hierarchical Bayesian method estimate parameters using data prior knowledge. show utility approach, analyze zebra mussel ( Dreissena polymorpha ) expansion North America inland commercial shipping network. Our analysis suggests mussels might been introduced before 1981, indicating lag 5 years between detection late 1986. Furthermore, our model, estimated one three chance they were near Kingsville (Ontario, Canada), where reported. We also find survival, fecundity, during early life (1–2 years) play critical role determining success mollusks. These results underscore importance fusing scientific observation processes framework for conceptual practical spread by human agency.

Language: Английский

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