Long-term tree population growth can predict woody encroachment patterns DOI Creative Commons
Robert K. Shriver, Elise Pletcher, Franco Biondi

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 122(18)

Published: May 1, 2025

Recent increases in woody plant density dryland ecosystems-or "woody encroachment"-around the world are often attributed to land-use changes such as increased livestock grazing and wildfire suppression or global environmental trends (e.g., increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide). While have undoubtedly impacted ecosystem structure function, evidence linking them encroachment is mixed, underlying processes not fully understood. To clarify role of demographic changing abundance, we conducted a meta-analysis tree age structures from 29 woodland populations across interior western United States, estimating per-capita establishment rates over last several hundred years using models. We found only limited following 19th-century Euro-American settlement. On contrary, our results showed that observed dominated by young trees, cited driven anthropogenic processes, can be largely predicted null model based on steady, multiplicative population growth. Moreover, demonstrated century mostly declined rather than increased, they currently at their lowest since least 1600 CE. Our suggest large part modern may fact result long-term increases, failing consider growth lead an overestimation settlement effects stand structure.

Language: Английский

Long-term tree population growth can predict woody encroachment patterns DOI Creative Commons
Robert K. Shriver, Elise Pletcher, Franco Biondi

et al.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 122(18)

Published: May 1, 2025

Recent increases in woody plant density dryland ecosystems-or "woody encroachment"-around the world are often attributed to land-use changes such as increased livestock grazing and wildfire suppression or global environmental trends (e.g., increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide). While have undoubtedly impacted ecosystem structure function, evidence linking them encroachment is mixed, underlying processes not fully understood. To clarify role of demographic changing abundance, we conducted a meta-analysis tree age structures from 29 woodland populations across interior western United States, estimating per-capita establishment rates over last several hundred years using models. We found only limited following 19th-century Euro-American settlement. On contrary, our results showed that observed dominated by young trees, cited driven anthropogenic processes, can be largely predicted null model based on steady, multiplicative population growth. Moreover, demonstrated century mostly declined rather than increased, they currently at their lowest since least 1600 CE. Our suggest large part modern may fact result long-term increases, failing consider growth lead an overestimation settlement effects stand structure.

Language: Английский

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