JAMA Cardiology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: April 16, 2025
Importance Despite the availability of disease-modifying therapies, scalable strategies for heart failure (HF) risk stratification remain elusive. Portable devices capable recording single-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) may enable large-scale community-based assessment. Objective To evaluate whether an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm can predict HF from noisy ECGs. Design, Setting, and Participants A retrospective cohort study individuals without at baseline was conducted among with conventionally obtained outpatient ECGs in integrated Yale New Haven Health System (YNHHS) prospective population-based cohorts UK Biobank (UKB) Brazilian Longitudinal Study Adult (ELSA-Brasil). Data analysis performed September 2023 to February 2025. Exposure AI-ECG–defined left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD). Main Outcomes Measures Among ECGs, lead I were isolated a noise-adapted AI-ECG model (to simulate ECG signals wearable devices) trained identify LVSD deployed. The association probability new-onset HF, defined as first hospitalization, evaluated. discrimination compared against 2 scores (Pooled Cohort Equations Prevent Heart Failure [PCP-HF] Predicting Risk Cardiovascular Disease Events [PREVENT] equations) using Harrel C statistic, improvement, net reclassification improvement. Results There 192 667 YNHHS patients (median [IQR] age, 56 [41-69] years; 111 181 women [57.7%]), 42 141 UKB participants 65 [59-71] 21 795 [51.7%]), 13 454 ELSA-Brasil 51 [45-58] 7348 [54.6%]) total 3697 (1.9%) developed over median (IQR) 4.6 (2.8-6.6) years, 46 (0.1%) 3.1 (2.1-4.5) 31 (0.2%) 4.2 (3.7-4.5) years. positive screening result associated 3- 7-fold higher each 0.1 increment 27% 65% hazard across cohorts, independent sex, comorbidities, competing death. AI-ECG’s 0.723 (95% CI, 0.694-0.752) YNHHS, 0.736 0.606-0.867) UKB, 0.828 0.692-0.964) ELSA-Brasil. Across incorporating predictions alongside PCP-HF PREVENT equations statistic (difference addition PCP-HF, 0.080-0.107; difference PREVENT, 0.069-0.094). had improvement 0.091 0.205 vs 0.068 0.192 PREVENT; it 18.2% 47.2% 11.8% 47.5% PREVENT. Conclusions Relevance multinational estimated suggesting potential risk-stratification strategy requiring portable devices.
Language: Английский