Modeling the Effects of Extreme Temperatures on the Infection Rate of Botrytis cinerea Using Historical Climate Data (1951–2023) of Central Chile
Agronomy,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
15(3), P. 608 - 608
Published: Feb. 28, 2025
Extreme
maximum
temperatures
in
summer
present
a
significant
risk
to
agroindustry
as
crops
and
their
ecological
interactions
have
critical
thermal
limits
that
can
affect
performance
microorganisms-related.
Gray
mold
disease
caused
by
Botrytis
cinerea
is
the
most
affecting
worldwide.
In
this
sense,
impact
of
temperature
on
agricultural
productivity
well
documented
Northern
Hemisphere;
extreme
infection
rate
B.
Central
Chile
limited.
This
study
analyzes
historical
climate
data
from
January
February
between
1951
2023
for
cities
Santiago,
Talca,
Chillán,
Los
Ángeles.
The
aim
was
examine
trends
(EMTs)
develop
simple
model
estimate
cinerea.
Linear
trend
analyses
were
conducted,
analysis
probability
occurrence.
Additionally,
five-year
averages
calculated,
generic
presented
assess
effects
warming
rate.
shows
positive
growth
February,
with
projections
2024,
2025,
2026
at
70%,
80%,
respectively.
showed
increase
among
all
stations,
Chillán
Ángeles
recording
higher
increases
than
Santiago
Talca.
Projections
suggest
near
40–41
°C.
exceeded
37
°C
2016–2020
period,
highest
values
during
analyzed
time
frame.
Trends
2021–2026
indicate
upper
above
38
These
trends,
combined
dry
summers,
could
severity
infections
modify
optimal
conditions
pathogen.
results
changes
reduce
fruit
Chile,
theoretical
approach
proposed
predictive
tools
facilitate
assessment
environment.
Language: Английский
Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change
Methods in Ecology and Evolution,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
16(1), P. 84 - 96
Published: Nov. 22, 2024
Abstract
Environmental
change
can
drive
evolutionary
adaptation
and
determine
geographic
patterns
of
biodiversity.
Yet
at
a
time
rapid
environmental
change,
our
ability
to
predict
its
impacts
is
incomplete.
Temporal
in
particular,
involves
combination
major
components
such
as
abrupt
shift,
trend,
cyclic
noise.
Theoretical
predictions
exist
for
isolated
components,
but
knowledge
gaps
remain
regarding
their
joint
impacts.
We
extend
classic
theory
develop
model
the
evolution
tolerance
by
an
underlying
developmentally
plastic
trait,
response
temporal
change.
retrieve
synthesise
earlier
responses
generate
new
changing
simultaneously.
Notably,
we
show
how
different
forms
predictability
emerging
from
interplay
stochastic
(noise)
lag
between
development
selection
shape
predictions.
then
illustrate
utility
generating
testable
plasticity
when
parameterised
with
real
series
data.
Specifically,
parameterise
daily
sea‐surface
temperature
global
marine
hotspot
southern
Australia,
use
simulations
thermal
tolerance,
differences
this
region.
By
synthesising
on
providing
insights
into
effects
framework,
embedded
Shiny
app,
offer
path
better
biological
climate
Language: Английский