Exploring different modelling approaches to forecast the community acute respiratory infections burden in children: an Italian epidemiological time series study

BMC Public Health, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: Feb. 28, 2025

Abstract Background Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in young children pose a significant global health challenge, leading to high rates of illness and death. They are estimated be the fourth cause mortality worldwide, particularly impacting under five. This study aimed identify most effective time series model(s) for forecasting epidemiological season burden ARIs current 2023/2024 period Italy. Methods Data on ARIs’ aged 0–14 years were retrieved from Pedianet, an Italian paediatric primary care database which includes over 200 family paediatricians. We analysed monthly incidence September 2010 2023, following typical seasonal pattern these infections. Several models compared predict future ARI: Error, Trend, Seasonality (ETS); Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA); Unobserved Component Model (UCM); Trigonometric, Box Cox, ARMA errors, (TBATS). evaluated each model's accuracy by examining residuals Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The between March 2020 February 2022 was forecasted represent normal trend without COVID-19. parameters using in-sample out-of-sample approach. Results analysis included data 1.4 million cases years. ETS model implemented pandemic period. Overall, our findings suggest that exponential smoothing as (MAPE = 6.85) TBATS 6.87) predicting trends other methods (i.e., UCM MAPE 11.08, SARIMA 25.33). Conclusions These preferable pediatric However, ongoing crucial understanding whether residual effects continue affecting infection patterns.

Language: Английский

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Long COVID clinical evaluation, research and impact on society: a global expert consensus

Annals of Clinical Microbiology and Antimicrobials, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 24(1)

Published: April 20, 2025

Abstract Background Long COVID is a complex, heterogeneous syndrome affecting over four hundred million people globally. There are few recommendations, and no formal training exists for medical professionals to assist with clinical evaluation management of patients COVID. More research into the pathology, cellular, molecular mechanisms COVID, treatments needed. The goal this work disseminate essential information about recommendations definition, diagnosis, treatment, social issues physicians, researchers, policy makers address escalating global health crisis. Methods A 3-round modified Delphi consensus methodology was distributed internationally 179 healthcare professionals, persons lived experience in 28 countries. Statements were combined specific areas: research, society. Results survey resulted 187 comprehensive statements reaching strongest areas being diagnosis assessment, general research. We establish conditions different subgroups within umbrella. Clear reached that impacts COVID-19 infection on children should be priority, additionally need determine effects societies economies. it affects nervous system other organs not likely observed initial symptoms. note, biomarkers critically needed these issues. Conclusions This forms guidance spectrum as disease reinforces translational large-scale treatment trials protocols.

Language: Английский

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Long-term neuropsychiatric and neuropsychological impact of the pandemic in Italian COVID-19 family clusters, including children and parents

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(4), P. e0321366 - e0321366

Published: April 24, 2025

Aim This study investigated the long-term neuropsychiatric and neuropsychological impact of COVID-19 on children their parents in households with exposure. Methods A prospective cohort was conducted 46 families attending Follow-up Clinic at Department for Women’s Children’s Health, Padua (Italy) from December 2021 to November 2022. Self-perceived stress-related, emotional-behavioral, post-traumatic stress (PTSD-related) symptoms were assessed both parents. Children underlying conditions excluded study. Results total 81 (median age = 38 years [IQR: 43–48], females 44 [54.3%]), 77 8 5–11], 33 [42.9%]) participated Overall,125 (79%) (21%) participants classified as cases non-COVID-19 cases, respectively. The time interval between family outbreak psychological assessment ≤4 months (median=3 [IQR=0]) 89 (56.3%) >4 69 (43.8%) (median=11.5 [IQR=5–12]) participants. 136 (86.1%) reported stress-related symptoms, emotional being most common. positive correlation observed self-perceived within same (r=0.53, p=0.0005). Among aged 6–18 years, 16 (37.2%) had clinical scores internalizing Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), while none 1.5–5 showed score symptoms. Similarly, difficulty Strengths Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ 4–17) PTSD-related through Trauma Symptom Young (TSCYC) questionnaire non-clinical cut-offs 45 (84.9%) 43 (75.4%) 3–12 (TSCC) resulted cut-off 36 (92.3%) 8–18 years. While a higher prevalence found compared (p=.01), no differences emotional-behavioral two groups. Conclusions documented pandemic Italian family’s levels. Further research is needed confirm our findings explore effects families.

Language: Английский

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Long COVID Clinical Evaluation, Research and Impact on Society: A Global Expert Consensus

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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