Comparing the performance of global, geographically weighted and ecologically weighted species distribution models for Scottish wildcats using GLM and Random Forest predictive modeling

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 492, P. 110691 - 110691

Published: April 8, 2024

Species distribution modeling has emerged as a foundational method to predict occurrence and suitability of species in relation environmental variables advance ecological understanding guide conservation planning. Recent research, however, shown that species-environmental relationships habitat model predictions are often nonstationary space, time context. This calls into question approaches assume global, stationary realized niche use predictive describe it. paper explores this issue by comparing the performance models for wildcat hybrid based on (1) global pooled data across individuals, (2) geographically weighted aggregation individual models, (3) ecologically (4) combinations geographical weighting. Our study system included GPS telemetry from 14 hybrids Scotland. We developed both using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) Random Forest machine learning compare these differing algorithms how they analyses. validated predicted four different ways. First, we used independent hold-out collared hybrids. Second, 8 additional previous were not training sample. Third, sightings sent public researchers expert opinion. Fourth, collected camera trap surveys between 2012 – 2021 various sources produce combined dataset showing where wildcats had been detected. results show validation individuals train provides highly biased assessment true other locations, with particular appearing perform exceptionally (and inaccurately) well when same models. Very obtained three sources. Each sets gave result terms best overall model. The average datasets suggested produced potential was an ensemble Model GLM suggests debate over whether which vs is superior or aggregated may be false choice. presented here prediction applies combination all framework.

Language: Английский

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Performance evaluation of cetacean species distribution models developed using generalized additive models and boosted regression trees

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(12), P. 5759 - 5784

Published: May 11, 2020

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are important management tools for highly mobile marine species because they provide spatially and temporally explicit information on animal distribution. Two prevalent modeling frameworks used to develop SDMs generalized additive (GAMs) boosted regression trees (BRTs), but comparative studies have rarely been conducted; most rely presence‐only data; few explored how features such as characteristics affect model performance. Since the majority of BRTs predict habitat suitability, we first compared GAMs that presence/absence response variable. We then results from these suitability density (animals per km 2 ) built with a subset data here previously received extensive validation. both explanatory power (i.e., goodness fit) predictive performance novel dataset) taxonomically diverse suite cetacean using robust set systematic survey (1991–2014) within California Current Ecosystem. Both were successful at describing overall patterns throughout study area considered, when predicting data, exhibited substantially greater than BRTs, likely due different variables fitting algorithms. Our an improved understanding some strengths limitations developed two methods. These can be by modelers developing resource managers tasked spatial determine best technique their question interest.

Language: Английский

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Where did they not go? Considerations for generating pseudo-absences for telemetry-based habitat models

Movement Ecology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Feb. 17, 2021

Abstract Background Habitat suitability models give insight into the ecological drivers of species distributions and are increasingly common in management conservation planning. Telemetry data can be used habitat to describe where animals were present, however this requires use presence-only modeling approaches or generation ‘pseudo-absences’ simulate locations did not go. To highlight considerations for generating pseudo-absences telemetry-based models, we explored how different methods pseudo-absence affect model performance across species’ movement strategies, types, environments. Methods We built marine terrestrial case studies, Northeast Pacific blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus ) African elephants Loxodonta africana ). tested four commonly models: (1) background sampling; (2) sampling within a buffer zone around presence locations; (3) correlated random walks beginning at tag release location; (4) reverse last location. using generalised linear mixed additive boosted regression trees. Results found that separation environmental niche space between presences was single most important driver explanatory power predictive skill. This result consistent habitats, two with vastly syndromes, three types. The best-performing method depended on which created greatest separation: elephants. However, despite fact greater performed better according traditional skill metrics, they always produce biologically realistic spatial predictions relative known distributions. Conclusions may positively biased cases sampled from environments dissimilar presences. emphasizes need carefully consider extent domain heterogeneity samples when developing highlights importance scrutinizing ensure fit objectives.

Language: Английский

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An evaluation of high-resolution ocean reanalyses in the California current system

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 210, P. 102951 - 102951

Published: Dec. 28, 2022

Language: Английский

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Building use‐inspired species distribution models: Using multiple data types to examine and improve model performance

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 33(6)

Published: June 7, 2023

Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is increasing diversity volume of biodiversity data training SDMs, little practical guidance available on how to leverage distinct types build robust models. We explored the effect different fit, performance predictive ability SDMs by comparing trained with four a heavily exploited pelagic fish, blue shark (Prionace glauca), in Northwest Atlantic: two fishery dependent (conventional mark-recapture tags, fisheries observer records) independent (satellite-linked electronic pop-up archival tags). found that all can result models, but differences among spatial predictions highlighted need consider ecological realism model selection interpretation regardless type. Differences were primarily attributed biases each type, associated representation absences, sampled environment summarized resulting species distributions. Outputs from ensembles pooled both proved effective combining inferences across provided more ecologically realistic than individual Our results provide valuable practitioners developing SDMs. With access diverse sources, future work should further develop truly integrative modeling approaches explicitly strengths statistically accounting limitations, such as sampling biases.

Language: Английский

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Marine heatwaves redistribute pelagic fishing fleets

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 25(4), P. 602 - 618

Published: April 4, 2024

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have measurable impacts on marine ecosystems and reliant fisheries associated communities. However, how MHWs translate to changes in fishing opportunities the displacement of fleets remains poorly understood. Using vessel tracking data from automatic identification system (AIS), we developed distribution models for two pelagic targeting highly migratory species, U.S. Atlantic longline Pacific troll fleets, understand MHW properties (intensity, size, duration) influence core grounds fleet displacement. For both size had largest ground area with northern gaining southern decreasing area. response varied between coasts, as displaced farther regions whereas most shifted farther. Characterizing responses these anomalous conditions can help identify regional vulnerabilities under future extreme events aid supporting climate‐readiness resilience fisheries.

Language: Английский

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Differential Vulnerability to Ship Strikes Between Day and Night for Blue, Fin, and Humpback Whales Based on Dive and Movement Data From Medium Duration Archival Tags

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Sept. 13, 2019

We examine the dive and movement behavior of blue, fin, humpback whales along US West Coast in regions with high ship traffic where strikes have been identified as a major concern. All three species are known to feed coastal waters near areas traffic. analyzed data from 33 archival tag deployments representing over 3,000 hours that were attached suction-cups or short darts for periods >24 recorded depth (≥1 Hz), fast-lock GPS positions other sensors. There clear differences among but all showed distinct diurnal difference diving behavior. While varied animals based on prey was located, spent proportion their time closer surface they would be more vulnerable at night than day. This most pronounced blue vulnerability twice compared also found patterns between day night. Movements localized specific resources while these movements often involved directional (though sometimes returning same area). show how several like Santa Barbara Channel, locations translate very different overlap shipping lanes daytime locations, which is basis sighting data.

Language: Английский

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Marine heatwave challenges solutions to human–wildlife conflict

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 288(1964)

Published: Dec. 1, 2021

Despite the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events, little is known about how their impacts flow through social ecological systems or whether management actions can dampen deleterious effects. We examined record 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave influenced trade-offs in managing conflict between conservation goals human activities using a case study on large whale entanglements U.S. west coast's most lucrative fishery (the Dungeness crab fishery). showed that this event diminished power multiple strategies to resolve entanglement risk revenue, transforming near win-win clear win-lose outcomes (for whales fishers, respectively). While some were more cost-effective than others, there was no silver-bullet strategy reduce severity these trade-offs. Our highlights events exacerbate human-wildlife conflict, emphasizes need for innovative policy interventions provide ecologically socially sustainable solutions an era rapid environmental change.

Language: Английский

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Modelling the biodiversity enhancement value of seagrass beds

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 27(11), P. 2036 - 2049

Published: July 9, 2021

Abstract Aim Seagrass beds are declining globally and increasingly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR), which could have consequences for the rich biodiversity they support. Spatial variation in role of seagrass enhancing is poorly resolved, limiting our ability set priorities conservation restoration. We aimed model enhancement value beds. Location Florida Gulf Coast, USA. Methods used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) describe distribution, total cover species composition estimate their effects on spatial patterns faunal richness under three scenarios. Specifically, we: (a) quantified current beds, (b) inferred potential restoration areas (c) projected changes distribution due SLR using low (+0.50 m) high (+1.0 forecasts 2100. Results Current supported 43%–64% more than unvegetated habitats, even when accounting variability predicted other environmental, seascape, temporal geographic factors. habitats would also increase near‐term (i.e., 43%–45% above levels). However, projections indicate that result significant losses areas, causing contracted distributions lower cover. Overall, these reductions provided by seagrasses. Although, there be many suitable locations seagrasses 2100, with some having either comparable or potentially increased value. Main conclusions Our findings highlight importance considering benefits planning managing impacts SLR.

Language: Английский

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Smart Oceans: Artificial intelligence and marine protected area governance

Earth System Governance, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13, P. 100141 - 100141

Published: June 2, 2022

Language: Английский

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