The conservation impacts of ecological disturbance: Time‐bound estimates of population loss and recovery for fauna affected by the 2019–2020 Australian megafires

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(10), P. 2085 - 2104

Published: March 1, 2022

Abstract Aim After environmental disasters, species with large population losses may need urgent protection to prevent extinction and support recovery. Following the 2019–2020 Australian megafires, we estimated recovery in fire‐affected fauna, inform conservation status assessments management. Location Temperate subtropical Australia. Time period 2019–2030 beyond. Major taxa terrestrial freshwater vertebrates; one invertebrate group. Methods From > 1,050 taxa, selected 173 whose distributions substantially overlapped fire extent. We proportion of each taxon’s distribution affected by fires, using severity aquatic impact mapping, new mapping. Using expert elicitation informed evidence responses previous wildfires, local fires varying severity. combined spatial data estimate overall loss trajectories, thus indicate potential eligibility for listing as threatened, or uplisting, under legislation. Results that megafires caused, contributed to, declines make 70–82 eligible threatened; another 21–27 uplisting. If so‐listed, this represents a 22–26% increase statutory lists threatened vertebrates spiny crayfish, uplisting 8–10% taxa. Such changes would cause an abrupt worsening underlying trajectories vertebrates, measured Red List Indices. predict 54–88% assessed will not recover pre‐fire size within 10 years/three generations. Main conclusions suggest have worsened prospects many species. Of 91 recommended listing/uplisting consideration, 84 are now formal review through national processes. Improving predictions about taxon vulnerability empirical on responses, reducing likelihood future catastrophic events mitigating their impacts biodiversity, critical.

Language: Английский

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Why We Need to Invest in Large-Scale, Long-Term Monitoring Programs in Landscape Ecology and Conservation Biology

Current Landscape Ecology Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 7(4), P. 137 - 146

Published: Oct. 12, 2022

Abstract Purpose of Review Large-scale and/or long-term monitoring has many important roles in landscape ecology and conservation biology. We explore some these this review. also briefly discuss the key design issues that need to be considered when developing long-term, large-scale ensure it is effective. Recent Findings Much been written on importance ecological monitoring, but record remains generally poor. For populations species for environmental management interventions, rarely done, or done well. This review outlines reasons critical invest well-designed, implemented, maintained monitoring. New ways using data, such as accounting mandated reporting, might provide avenues garnering greater support programs future. Summary seven most These are (1) documenting responses change, (2) answering questions, (3) testing existing theory new theory, (4) quantifying effectiveness (5) informing prediction systems, (6) engaging citizen scientists general public, (7) contributing data other insights initiatives. illustrate with examples, drawn from large-scale, work a range environments Australia. argue functions can only realized if program well designed, maintained.

Language: Английский

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Cats, foxes and fire: quantitative review reveals that invasive predator activity is most likely to increase shortly after fire

Fire Ecology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 19(1)

Published: April 13, 2023

Abstract Background Predators and fire shape ecosystems across the globe these two forces can interact to impact prey populations. This issue is particularly pertinent in Australia where there considerable scientific public interest post-fire impacts of invasive predators—the feral cat red fox. It remains unclear, though, whether increased fox activity response a general phenomenon, or responses are highly context-specific not generalisable. Results We reviewed analysed existing literature found that range positive (e.g., burnt areas), negative (decreased activity), neutral have been recorded different studies locations. Mixed effects modelling revealed were more likely when areas recently (shorter time since fire). The mean likelihood by cats decreased from 41% at 0 months 10% 100 post-fire, whereas probability for foxes 53 10%. suggests may be critical period immediately most vulnerable elevated predators, within which management interventions impactful. Conclusions Many our findings identified as potential cases either mechanistic apparent context dependency (variation patterns due observational ecological factors). provides pathway design future will enhance understanding predator fire, both globally. Conservation policy benefit additional research spanning greater events, along with comprehensive nuanced interpretation evidence.

Language: Английский

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Severe wildfires promoted by climate change negatively impact forest amphibian metacommunities

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(6), P. 785 - 800

Published: April 24, 2023

Abstract Aim Changes to the extent and severity of wildfires driven by anthropogenic climate change are predicted have compounding negative consequences for ecological communities. While there is evidence that severe weather events like drought impact amphibian communities, effects wildfire on such communities not well understood. The species likely vary, owing diversity their life‐history traits. However, no previous research has identified commonalities among amphibians at most risk from wildfire, limiting conservation initiatives in aftermath wildfire. We aimed investigate impacts unprecedented 2019–2020 black summer bushfires Australian forest Location Eastern coast New South Wales, Australia. Methods conducted visual encounter surveys passive acoustic monitoring across 411 sites within two regions, one northeast southeast Wales. used fire mapping multispecies occupancy models assess 35 species. Results demonstrate a influence metacommunity richness south with weaker north—reflective less fires occurred this region. Both threatened common were impacted extent. Occupancy burrowing rain specialists had mostly relationships extent, while arboreal neutral relationships. Main Conclusion Metacommunity adaptive strategies needed account after climatic events. Ecological, morphological variation drives susceptibility wildfires. document first change‐driven impacting temperate broad geographic area, which raises serious concern persistence under an increasingly fire‐prone climate.

Language: Английский

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Fire ecology for the 21st century: Conserving biodiversity in the age of megafire

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(3), P. 350 - 356

Published: Feb. 24, 2022

Fire is one of Earth's most potent agents ecological change. This Special Issue comes in the wake a series extreme wildfires across world, from Amazon, to Siberia, California, Portugal, South Africa and eastern Australia (Duane et al., 2021). These "megafires," variously defined according their size, intensity, or impacts (Attiwill & Binkley, 2013), are perhaps signature feature fiery transition what Pyne (2020) has termed "Pyrocene." Projections increased fire weather extended seasons portend an increasingly flammable planet (Ellis al.; Jain 2021; Wu Recent megafires have alarmed conservation scientists practitioners because scale intensity demands new ways thinking about biodiversity fire-prone landscapes, and, potentially, tools tailored avoid minimise fire-induced declines extinctions (Wintle 2020). Megafires potential transform landscapes at speed unmatched by abiotic disturbances. Urgent questions remain regarding how ecosystems affected by, recover from, (Jolly 2022); effectiveness interventions aimed minimising decline promoting recovery species, communities, following megafire 2020); best monitor megafire, prioritise investment within massive footprints (Southwell 2022). Diversity Distributions grapples with some these complexities challenges. The 2019‒20 Australian prominently this Issue. fires were unprecedented more than one: fanned climatic conditions (Abram 2021), they burned percentage continental forest biome (Boer 2020), including area high severity (Collins They habitat for >3 billion individuals >800 species vertebrates (Van Eeden 2020; Ward entire geographic ranges encompassed (Legge Hundreds having status reviewed single "season hell" provides opportunity reflect upon those fires, lessons learned that will be relevant other regions grappling (Geary 2022; Legge 2022), while also contrasting Australia's experience record-breaking recent (e.g., California). inherently spatiotemporal process, yet ecology has, much its history, been concerned temporal spatial effects fire—with particular focus on local post-fire successional trajectories communities (Keith, Studies provide examples insights studies can provide: Connell al. (2022) showed species' responses contingent prevailing conditions; Miller demonstrated surprisingly long-term (100+ year) dynamics lichen communities; Rainsford revealed variable different functional groups plants birds, information used assess tolerable minimum maximum intervals, and; Topp response butterflies depends mobility, mediated through vegetation structure. In last decade, measures fire, such as "pyrodiversity"—the diversity histories space—have become major foci (Furnas Parr Andersen, 2006; Taylor 2012). Pyrodiversity received attention hypothesis would increase (Martin Sapsis, 1992). Yet, multidimensional nature regime—encompassing frequency, interval, seasonality, aspects (size, extent, configuration)—gave rise proliferation pyrodiversity concepts (Bowman, Perry, 2016; Hempson 2018; Kelly 2016) equally diverse array approaches examine relationships between (Jones Tingley, Jones Tingley make significant contribution defining criteria direct tests "pyrodiversity begets biodiversity" hypothesis. important measurements captured observational unit study, not among them. While there many obstacles resolving whether, where, when promotes biodiversity, clear constitutes test represent substantial move forward. next steps clarifying unifying metrics studies, greater consideration role relationship contemporary compares maintained under regimes which biota adapted, especially Indigenous (Greenwood context megafires, importance painfully obvious, but mechanisms facilitating uncertain. Models animals emphasise three pathways: situ recovery, driven survivors landscape; ex colonisation outside footprint; nucleated refuges (Banks 2011, 2017). create sources recovery—organisms footprint—are tens kilometres removed fire-affected points landscape few boundary allow potentially hampering slowing (Nimmo 2019). Bradstock (2008) highlighted that, contrary popular opinion, plant large often internally, survivors. work 2009 Black Saturday confirmed surprising animal too Issue, Hale further evidence within-fire survival being impetus small mammals south-eastern Australia. aftermath was no occurrence several mammal distance recovery. Instead, features could internal refuge—rocks trees—were related footprint. contrast Hale—but encompassing longer time-scale—Steel identify gradient richness composition Californian bird edge patches: near interior patches differed edge, former comprised disproportionately ground- shrub-nesting relatively fewer tree cavity-nesting species. show decreases size severity, due loss Given increasing regularity large, severe California (Keeley Syphard, Steel warn changes community shifting deliver. contribution, Calhoun illustrate already spread well beyond conifer where political media typically centred. manipulative experiments always gold standard areas ecology, (Andersen, processes operate scales manipulation unethical impossible (Barley Meeuwig, Megafire processes. Our understanding necessarily derived opportunistic draw Control-Impact Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) designs. occur part existing monitoring program deploy BACI designs 2016), unpredictable means number sites unburned highly programs. Wood use simulations empirical data power detect burn subset belonging longer-term program. landscape-scale crude populations, lack ascertain form trajectory (Wood, Of course, enhanced sites, underscoring networks landscapes. A prime objective immediate undertake rapid surveys Ultimately, reconnaissance missions aim search signs life firegrounds help deliver guide management interventions. Such undertaken short notice, reaction event "rule book" follow. Southwell guidelines practice maximise chance detecting focal costs surveys, upon—wherever possible—existing programmes. highlight distribution models paired maps reconnaissance; considering detectability statistical surveys; capacity value-add on-ground concurrently measuring threats. pressing need during after rapidly likely investment. Three described each relating (two scale, regional scale). outlines method identifying impacted combines overlap range event, pre-fire imperilment indicated status. intersection two creates matrix: critically endangered proportion (>80%) footprint receive highest score, unlisted <10%) lowest score. approach imperilled just inputs. However, (Topp 2022): may minimally affected, others substantially affected. To account this, consider traits confer vulnerability both landscape. decide inclusion exclusion intermediate risk scores. Gallagher (2021) demonstrate another prioritising urgent interventions, focussing plants. addition amount overlaps Gallaher cumulative past might interact imperil depending obligate seeding repeated succession). doing so, identified nearly 600 extinction megafires. depend only history (i.e., regime; (Gill, 1975)), warranted taxa well. Finally, Geary prioritisation level (Victoria, Australia). Here, ~4,200 plans still burning. nuanced measure overlap, drawing weigh proportional suitability. 40% threshold priority then vetted using expert advice mediate fire. utility action planning (Thomson 2020) decisions act derive cost-effective benefit decline). If goal meet probability extinction) given budget, towards actions needed all levels (see Game 2013). emotions world moment stories plights mega-fires, losing public support if our do hold true. It therefore imperative assessment accurate enough realistic picture risks. vulnerable occurs appear straightforward, Crates high-quality distributional assessing ranges. simple Extent Occurrence Area Occupancy tended underestimate extent compared detailed known, breeding locations. issues magnified less well-studied taxa, reptiles invertebrates, poor assessments abundance undescribed cryptic Uncertainty varying severities requires continue frameworks. As accrues, it vital compare actual predicted desktop assessments, adapt methods, necessary, bring into closer alignment. Among concerning megafire—and altered generally—is induce shifts ecosystem states vast (Harris Rammer Larger, frequent result shortened leading instances state (Enright 2015). For instance, forests dominated face "immaturity risk" intervals them reach reproductive maturity successive 1999), resulting replacement resprouting (Nolan conversion dominant canopy set motion flow throughout ecosystem, compounded owing fuel biomass dryness (Coop Enright Via widespread state-shifts—reinforced positive feedbacks promote flammability—megafire primary mechanism hastening types climate McColl-Gausden case study immaturity Alpine Ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) Australia, region undergone activity decades (Bowman Fairman ash 15–20 years maturity, so multiple 20-year window, alpine converted shrublands (Bassett Similar North America obligate-seeding conifers projections future drivers 283,000 hectares forest. over two-thirds exposed risk, margins drier risk. recognise considered Although intense (Bradstock, 2008), frequency created perceived suite specifically communities. these, extraction populations low likelihood survival, provision artificial hollows) supplementary food replace resources incinerated control invasive compound Virtually piecemeal base underpinning implementation context, research document effectiveness. instances, needed, unnecessary squander scarce resources. terms reversing shifts, ambitious projects attempted. Bassett (2015) aerially sowed ~2,000 ha had failed regenerate southern demonstrating intervention cohort seedlings interval squeeze obliterated natural seed stores. up efforts thousands hundreds hectares, wisdom so—of attempting retain system niche disappears—requires careful consideration. raised ecologists require way (Kelly Nimmo 2021): "megafire ecology". focussed specific outcomes exceptionally ecosystems. although rare, usually majority ecologically events One attributes—their size—means distinct modes reliance smaller fires. mean pace slower components, relative incidence time comprises regime: divorced overall regime, leave signature, comprising distinctive force shaping There accruing far-reaching (Peters Tang Very change land surface properties albedo, evapotranspiration, roughness) affect period (Saha 2016). Hence, holistic researchers look far political, public, even scientific interest immediately persist centuries (Haslem 2011; 1988 Yellowstone tracking ecosystem's (Romme motivated presence felt coming beyond. managers how, if, recover, factors dynamics. When keep mind isolation, indirect change, uses, opening whole field global biology. authors manuscript acted guest editors "Fire 21st century: conserving age megafire" encompass expertise behaviour globe. We like acknowledge who contributed reviewers considerable expertise, editorial board proposing topic. pay respects Traditional Owners custodians lands took place. declare conflict interest. Research Council : DECRA (DE170101466) peer review article available https://publons.com/publon/10.1111/ddi.13482. Data sharing applicable analysed study.

Language: Английский

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Spatial modelling and estimation of mammals' mortalities by Pantanal 2020 megafires

Journal of Applied Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(11), P. 2848 - 2859

Published: Sept. 26, 2024

Abstract Extreme wildfire events, such as the Pantanal 2020 megafires, are expected to become more common. Assessing impacts of extreme events on wildlife is imperative for conservation planning. Direct observation carcasses can provide valuable information how these relate spatial heterogeneity. Here, we use double‐observer carcass surveys assess numbers and patterns direct mortalities medium‐ large‐sized mammals resulting from megafires in a large reserve (1080 km 2 ) northern wetland. Accounting imperfect detection, model variation mortality occurrence abundance, testing effects habitat‐related variables severity using multi‐species N‐mixture models. We found that 26 out 27 species medium died fires with mean estimate around 49 thousand individuals. The most affected included capuchin monkeys, agoutis, peccaries, tapirs, brocket deer, tamanduas, coatis capybaras. by wildfires was landscape factors related habitats, traits (probably escape or refuge strategies), intensity wildfires. Mortalities presented general positive relationship non‐flooded forests (a fire‐sensitive habitat Pantanal) Artificial water bodies, common structure Pantanal, had 7.5 times deaths than other areas. Synthesis applications : With approach used, were able to: (i) identify hotspots associated features; (ii) simultaneously average relationships all assemblage mammals. discuss management actions two contexts: prioritization rescuing monitoring; territory fire prevention fighting.

Language: Английский

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The House Is Burning: Assessment of Habitat Loss Due to Wildfires in Central Mexico

Fire, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(4), P. 134 - 134

Published: April 12, 2024

Fire suppression and climate change have increased the frequency severity of wildfires, but responses many organisms to wildfire are still largely unknown. In this study, we assessed risk habitat loss for amphibians, mammals, reptiles caused by wildfires in central Mexico. We accomplished by: (1) determining likelihood occurrence over a 12-year period using historical records Poisson probability mass function pinpoint most susceptible areas wildfire; (2) evaluating species exposure identifying natural land use that aligns with potential distribution biodiversity; (3) assessing vulnerability based on classifications established IUCN CONABIO. Our findings unveiled three regions exhibiting concentration high-risk values. Among these, two positioned near major urban centers, while third lies southeastern sector Nevado de Toluca protection area. Amphibians emerged as taxonomic group severely impacted, substantial number falling within Critically Endangered categories, closely followed mammals reptiles. Furthermore, identified correlation between location zones agricultural areas. This study revealed hotspots can offer valuable guidance strategic initiatives fire-prone associated Moreover, future studies should contemplate integrating field data enhance our comprehension actual effects spatial these animal groups.

Language: Английский

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Lost in the ashes? Broadscale passive monitoring provides limited insight into the impacts of Australia's megafires on biodiversity

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 289, P. 110378 - 110378

Published: Dec. 7, 2023

Extreme environmental disturbances such as fires are predicted to increase in severity and extent with climate change. To better understand ecological impacts of unprecedented scales disturbance, empirical monitoring data urgently needed. Broadscale passive networks camera traps or acoustic recorders an increasingly popular approach for monitoring. Australia's 2019–2020 Black Summer megafires burned over 8 million hectares, a network across eastern New South Wales provided Before-After-Control-Impact opportunity examine this event on biodiversity. We evaluated severe fire mammals using dynamic occupancy models characterise the colonisation unoccupied sites, extinction occupied sites between 2018 2021. used Generalized Linear Mixed Models identify species traits correlated detections, predicting widely distributed broadest habitat breadths would be most frequently detected, threatened least detected. Our analyses limited insight into fires. Forty-two mammal were detected 'definite' but approximately 91 % records attributed just eight species. Extinction trends four species, one was trend. Endangered less likely than Vulnerable Least Concern Decreasing costs sensors artificial intelligence will encourage networks. However, our results caution that large volumes sensor not necessarily overcome many shortcomings Bespoke designs, progressive analyses, method refinement remain important ensure greatest value can derived from data.

Language: Английский

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The power of eDNA sampling to investigate the impact of Australian mega-fires on platypus occupancy

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 286, P. 110219 - 110219

Published: Oct. 1, 2023

Fire plays an important role in many ecosystems, but megafires are increasing the area burnt forested regions globally. The 2019–2020 south-eastern Australia were unprecedented with respect to and spatial extent of high-severity fire. Yet, there is limited knowledge regarding impact these on biodiversity, especially aquatic fauna. Here we investigate distribution a semi-aquatic monotreme thought be decline: platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus. We leveraged extensive pre-fire environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling coupled this additional at two timepoints post-fire, conduct Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study. used site occupancy-detection modelling estimate platypus occupancy across fire affected non-fire sites over time as well interaction between occupancy, high rainfall, severity. detected negative effect presence both post-fire periods. Platypus was also predicted lower that experienced rainfall situated within watersheds had large proportion high-severity. With globally, predictions more extreme events future, fauna requires greater consideration assessments biodiversity management generally. use eDNA detection methods BACI framework provides promising means fill gaps does require pre-emptive sampling.

Language: Английский

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A gap analysis of reconnaissance surveys assessing the impact of the 2019–20 wildfires on vertebrates in Australia

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 270, P. 109573 - 109573

Published: May 6, 2022

Language: Английский

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