Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves

Science, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 361(6399)

Published: July 19, 2018

Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach analytical models traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, extinction, driven by modeled climates past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed impact climate heterogeneity diversification. The simulations identified regions episodes speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), extinction (graves). Although had no target pattern were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary for major taxa, confirming powerful roles evolution diversification topography climate.

Language: Английский

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Want to model a species niche? A step-by-step guideline on correlative ecological niche modelling

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 456, P. 109671 - 109671

Published: July 19, 2021

Language: Английский

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Biotic interactions in species distribution modelling: 10 questions to guide interpretation and avoid false conclusions

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 27(9), P. 1004 - 1016

Published: July 24, 2018

Abstract Aim Recent studies increasingly use statistical methods to infer biotic interactions from co‐occurrence information at a large spatial scale. However, disentangling other factors that can affect patterns the macroscale is major challenge. Approach We present set of questions analysts and reviewers should ask avoid erroneously attributing species association interactions. Our relate appropriateness data models, causality behind correlative signal, problems associated with static dynamic systems. summarize caveats reported by macroecological examine whether conclusions on presence are supported modelling approaches used. Findings Irrespective method used, out test for find associations in species’ co‐occurrences. Yet, when compared our list questions, few purported interpretations such as hold up scrutiny. This does not dismiss or importance interactions, but it highlights risk too lenient interpretation data. Combining model results experiments functional traits relevant interaction interest might strengthen conclusions. Main Moving species‐ community‐level including among species, great process‐based understanding forecasting ecological responses. hope will help improve these models facilitate their results. In essence, we conclude ecologists have recognize pattern joint distribution be driven only real also shared habitat preferences, common migration history, phylogenetic history response missing environmental drivers, which specifically need discussed and, if possible, integrated into models.

Language: Английский

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The Latitudinal Diversity Gradient: Novel Understanding through Mechanistic Eco-evolutionary Models

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 34(3), P. 211 - 223

Published: Dec. 24, 2018

Language: Английский

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Managing consequences of climate‐driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 93(1), P. 284 - 305

Published: June 1, 2017

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species poses new questions for study ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require coordinated integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes species biology, importance understanding underlying drivers need to anticipate novel outcomes changes ranges. We highlight has manifest implications across multiple temporal spatial scales from genes ecosystems. Understanding range shifts ecological, physiological, genetic biogeographical perspectives essential informing changing paradigms designing strategies incorporate population connectivity advance adaptation climate change. redistributions present challenges well-being, environmental management sustainable development. By synthesising approaches, theories tools, our establishes an interdisciplinary foundation development future on redistribution. Specifically, demonstrate how social can best be achieved by working disciplinary boundaries develop implement solutions challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating human-centred approaches. Finally, emphasise will not useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers public responsible socially acceptable options arising redistributions.

Language: Английский

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Integrating the underlying structure of stochasticity into community ecology

Ecology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 101(2)

Published: Oct. 25, 2019

Abstract Stochasticity is a core component of ecology, as it underlies key processes that structure and create variability in nature. Despite its fundamental importance ecological systems, the concept often treated synonymous with unpredictability community studies tend to focus on single forms stochasticity rather than taking more holistic view. This has led multiple narratives for how mediates dynamics. Here, we present framework describes different (notably demographic environmental stochasticity) combine provide underlying predictable diverse communities. builds deep understanding stochastic acting at individual population levels modules few interacting species. We support our mathematical model use synthesize literature, demonstrating simple uncertainty. Rather, profound effects dynamics are critical diversity maintained. propose next steps ecologists might explore role structuring communities theoretical empirical thereby enhance

Language: Английский

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Understanding extinction debts: spatio–temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research

Ecography, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 42(12), P. 1973 - 1990

Published: July 13, 2019

Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such and investigating long‐term consequences perturbations has proven challenging, because are not isolated occur across various spatial temporal scales, from local habitat losses global warming. Additionally, the relative importance eco‐evolutionary processes varies levels ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations (meta)communities, respond hierarchically perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge scales mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical methodological studies addressing either spatio–temporal debts or delaying extinctions. were detected range ecosystems taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging 9 90% richness. The duration over which have been sustained 5 570 yr, projections total period required settle can extend 1000 yr. Reported causes 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, 2) population metapopulation dynamics maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors may survival time microevolutionary dynamics, interaction partners, rarely analyzed. Therefore, propose roadmap for future research three key avenues: processes, disjunctive loss interacting 3) impact multiple regimes perturbation on payment debts. For their ability integrate occurring at different highlight mechanistic simulation models tools address these gaps deepen understanding dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Conceptual and empirical advances in Neotropical biodiversity research

PeerJ, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 6, P. e5644 - e5644

Published: Oct. 4, 2018

The unparalleled biodiversity found in the American tropics (the Neotropics) has attracted attention of naturalists for centuries. Despite major advances recent years our understanding origin and diversification many Neotropical taxa biotic regions, questions remain to be answered. Additional biological geological data are still needed, as well methodological that capable bridging these research fields. In this review, aimed primarily at advanced students early-career scientists, we introduce concept "trans-disciplinary biogeography," which refers integration from multiple areas biology (e.g., community ecology, phylogeography, systematics, historical biogeography) Earth physical sciences geology, climatology, palaeontology), a means reconstruct giant puzzle evolution space time. We caution against extrapolating results derived study one or few convey general scenarios landscape formation. urge more coordination ideas among disciplines, transcending their traditional boundaries, basis advancing tomorrow's ground-breaking research. Our review highlights great opportunities studying biota understand life.

Language: Английский

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Process, Mechanism, and Modeling in Macroecology

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 32(11), P. 835 - 844

Published: Sept. 14, 2017

Language: Английский

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Macroecology in the age of Big Data – Where to go from here?

Journal of Biogeography, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 47(1), P. 1 - 12

Published: July 17, 2019

Abstract Recent years have seen an exponential increase in the amount of data available all sciences and application domains. Macroecology is part this “Big Data” trend, with a strong rise volume that we are using for our research. Here, summarize most recent developments macroecology age Big Data were presented at 2018 annual meeting Specialist Group Ecological Society Germany, Austria Switzerland (GfÖ). Supported by computational advances, has been rapidly developing field over years. Our highlighted important avenues further progress terms standardized collection, integration, method development process integration. In particular, focus on (a) gaps new initiatives to close them, example through space‐ airborne sensors, (b) how various sources types can be integrated, (c) uncertainty assessed data‐driven analyses (d) machine learning approaches opened ways investigating processes rather than simply describing patterns. We discuss opens up opportunities, but also poses challenges macroecological future, it will essential carefully assess quality, reproducibility compilation analytical methods, communication uncertainties. Major depend definition standards workflows macroecology, such scientific quality integrity guaranteed, collaboration research projects made easier.

Language: Английский

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