Predicting emergent animal biodiversity patterns across multiple scales DOI Creative Commons
Alice S. A. Johnston

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(7)

Published: July 1, 2024

Abstract Restoring biodiversity‐based resilience and ecosystem multi‐functionality needs to be informed by more accurate predictions of animal biodiversity responses environmental change. Ecological models make a substantial contribution this understanding, especially when they encode the biological mechanisms processes that give rise emergent patterns (population, community, properties dynamics). Here, distinction between ‘mechanistic’ ‘process‐based’ ecological is established review existing approaches. Mechanistic process‐based have made key advances understanding structure, function dynamics biodiversity, but are typically designed account for specific levels organisation spatiotemporal scales. Cross‐scale models, which predict co‐occurring at interacting scales space, time organisation, critical next step in predictive ecology. A way forward first capitalise on systematically evaluate ability scale‐explicit alternative Such model intercomparisons will reveal mechanism process transitions across fine broad scales, overcome approach‐specific barriers realism or tractability identify gaps necessitate development new fundamental principles. Key challenges surrounding complexity uncertainty would need addressed, while opportunities from big data can streamline integration multiple patterns, ambitious cross‐scale field studies also needed. Crucially, overcoming modelling unite disparate fields ecology with common goal improving evidence‐base safeguard ecosystems under novel

Language: Английский

Mechanisms, detection and impacts of species redistributions under climate change DOI
Jake Lawlor, Lise Comte, Gaël Grenouillet

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(5), P. 351 - 368

Published: April 18, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

43
Life-history adaptation under climate warming magnifies the agricultural footprint of a cosmopolitan insect pest DOI Creative Commons

Estelle Burc,

Camille Girard‐Tercieux,

Moa Metz

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: Jan. 18, 2025

Abstract Climate change is affecting population growth rates of ectothermic pests with potentially dire consequences for agriculture and global food security. However, current projection models pest impact typically overlook the potential rapid genetic adaptation, making forecasts uncertain. Here, we predict how climate adaptation in life-history traits insect affects their on agricultural yields by unifying thermodynamics classic theory resource acquisition allocation trade-offs between foraging, reproduction, maintenance. Our model predicts that warming temperatures will favour towards maintenance coupled increased through larval evolution this strategy results both per capita host consumption, causing a double-blow yields. We find support these predictions studying thermal gene expression wide-spread pest, Callosobruchus maculatus ; 5 years under experimental an almost two-fold increase its predicted footprint. These show can offset projections emphasize need integrating mechanistic understanding into change.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Spatially explicit models for decision‐making in animal conservation and restoration DOI
Damaris Zurell, Christian König, Anne‐Kathleen Malchow

et al.

Ecography, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2022(4)

Published: Oct. 8, 2021

Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns processes. Under ongoing climate biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision‐making in conservation restoration help designing adequate management strategies an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models decision support to identify key gaps current modelling restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear application were included our quantitative analyses. Overall, studies biased towards static (79%), species population level (80%) (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche most widely used model type. Dynamic as well gene‐to‐individual community‐to‐ecosystem underrepresented, cost optimisation approaches only 10% studies. We present new typology selecting animal restoration, characterising types according organisational levels, biological processes interest desired applications. This will more closely link goals. Additionally, future efforts need overcome important challenges related data integration, integration decision‐making. conclude with five recommendations, suggesting that wider usage be achieved by 1) developing toolbox multiple, easier‐to‐use methods, 2) improving calibration validation dynamic 3) best‐practise guidelines applying these models. Further, robust 4) combining multiple assess uncertainty, 5) placing at core adaptive management. These must accompanied long‐term funding monitoring, improved communication between research practise ensure optimal outcomes.

Language: Английский

Citations

63
A curated list of R packages for ecological niche modelling DOI Creative Commons
Neftalí Sillero, João C. Campos, Salvador Arenas‐Castro

et al.

Ecological Modelling, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 476, P. 110242 - 110242

Published: Dec. 14, 2022

The R language provides most applications (packages) currently available for ecological niche modelling. In the last few years, these packages have increased substantially. There are now numerous computing models (ENMs) with different algorithms, comparing species niches and models, creating virtual species, getting preparing related environmental data, filtering records, evaluating amongst other tasks. This profusion of package options may be daunting both beginners more experienced users. Here we provide an organised annotated list each task. We present a concise history creation packages, briefly describe what does, discuss whether current set covers all necessities modelling species' niches. will accessible updated over time on dedicated website.

Language: Английский

Citations

55
Moving beyond landscape resistance: considerations for the future of connectivity modelling and conservation science DOI Creative Commons
Siddharth Unnithan Kumar, Jonathon Turnbull, Oscar Hartman Davies

et al.

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 37(10), P. 2465 - 2480

Published: Aug. 13, 2022

Abstract Landscape connectivity, the extent to which a landscape facilitates flow of ecological processes such as organism movement, has emerged central focus ecology and conservation science. Connectivity modelling now encompasses an enormous body work across theory application. The dominant connectivity models in use today are based on framework ‘landscape resistance’, is way measuring how structure influences movement patterns. However, simplistic assumptions high degree reductionism inherent resistance paradigm severely limits ability algorithms account for many fundamental aspects animal thus greatly reduces effectiveness relevance practice. In this paper, we first provide overview development surfaces. We then discuss several key drivers absent resistance-based models, with spatiotemporal variation, human interspecies interactions, other context-dependent effects. look at range empirical studies highlight strong impact these effects have predictions. But also promising avenues future research address this: newly emerging technologies interdisciplinary work, developing methodologies, conversations move beyond limiting resistance, so that can better reflect complexities richness movement.

Language: Английский

Citations

46
Stackelberg evolutionary game theory: how to manage evolving systems DOI Creative Commons
Alexander Stein, Mónica L. Salvioli, Hasti Garjani

et al.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 378(1876)

Published: March 20, 2023

Stackelberg evolutionary game (SEG) theory combines classical and to frame interactions between a rational leader evolving followers. In some of these interactions, the wants preserve system (e.g. fisheries management), while in others, they try drive extinction pest control). Often worst strategy for is adopt constant aggressive overfishing management or maximum tolerable dose cancer treatment). Taking into account ecological dynamics typically leads better outcomes corresponds Nash equilibria game-theoretic terms. However, leader’s most profitable anticipate steer eco-evolutionary dynamics, leading equilibrium game. We show how our results have potential help fields where humans bring an desired outcome, such as, among management, treatment. Finally, we discuss limitations opportunities applying SEGs improve biological systems. This article part theme issue ‘Half century games: synthesis theory, application future directions’.

Language: Английский

Citations

30
Coding for Life: Designing a Platform for Projecting and Protecting Global Biodiversity DOI
Mark C. Urban, Justin M. J. Travis, Damaris Zurell

et al.

BioScience, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 72(1), P. 91 - 104

Published: Aug. 17, 2021

Abstract Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species ecosystems are most at risk ensure efficient use limited conservation management resources. We review existing projection models discover problematic gaps. Current usually cannot easily be reconfigured for other or systems, omit key biological processes, accommodate feedbacks with Earth system dynamics. To fill these gaps, we envision an adaptable, accessible, universal modeling platform that can project essential variables, explore the implications divergent socioeconomic scenarios, compare strategies. design a roadmap implementing vision demonstrate building forecasting possible practical.

Language: Английский

Citations

46
Connectivity modelling in conservation science: a comparative evaluation DOI Creative Commons
Siddharth Unnithan Kumar, Samuel A. Cushman

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Oct. 6, 2022

Landscape connectivity, the extent to which a landscape facilitates flow of ecological processes such as organism movement, has grown become central focus applied ecology and conservation science. Several computational algorithms have been developed understand map many studies validated their predictions using empirical data. Yet at present, there is no published comparative analysis uses comprehensive simulation framework measure accuracy performance dominant methods in connectivity modelling. Given widespread usage models spatial science, thorough evaluation predictive abilities techniques essential for guiding appropriate effective application across different contexts. In this paper, we address by individual-based movement model Pathwalker simulate scenarios generated from wide range possible behaviours complexities. With simulated data, test three major models: factorial least-cost paths, resistant kernels, Circuitscape. Our study shows latter two these consistently perform most accurately nearly all cases, with varying substantially For majority applications, infer kernels be model, except when strongly directed towards known location. We conclude paper review interdisciplinary discussion current limitations future developments

Language: Английский

Citations

38
Experimental evolution of dispersal: Unifying theory, experiments and natural systems DOI Creative Commons
Nicky Lustenhouwer, Felix Moerman, Florian Altermatt

et al.

Journal of Animal Ecology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 92(6), P. 1113 - 1123

Published: April 23, 2023

Abstract Dispersal is a central life history trait that affects the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations communities. The recent use experimental evolution for study dispersal promising avenue demonstrating valuable proofs concept, bringing insight into alternative strategies trade‐offs, testing repeatability outcomes. Practical constraints restrict studies to set typically small, short‐lived organisms reared in artificial laboratory conditions. Here, we argue despite these restrictions, inferences from can reinforce links between theoretical predictions empirical observations advance our understanding eco‐evolutionary consequences dispersal. We illustrate how applying an integrative framework theory, natural systems improve under more complex realistic biological scenarios, such as role biotic interactions syndromes.

Language: Английский

Citations

19
Environmental variability in aquatic ecosystems: Avenues for future multifactorial experiments DOI Creative Commons
Miriam Gerhard, Apostolos‐Manuel Koussoroplis, Michael Raatz

et al.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(2), P. 247 - 266

Published: Oct. 22, 2022

Abstract The relevance of considering environmental variability for understanding and predicting biological responses to changes has resulted in a recent surge variability‐focused ecological research. However, integration findings that emerge across studies identification remaining knowledge gaps aquatic ecosystems remain critical. Here, we address these aspects by: (1) summarizing relevant terms research including the components (characteristics) key interactions when multiple factors; (2) identifying conceptual frameworks consequences single multifactorial scenarios; (3) highlighting challenges bridging theoretical experimental involving transitioning from simple more complex (4) proposing improved approaches overcome current mismatches between predictions observations; (5) providing guide designing integrated experiments scales, degrees control, complexity light their specific strengths limitations.

Language: Английский

Citations

24