Combining occupancy and dispersal models to predict the conservation benefits of land-use change

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 40(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Supporting Reintroduction Planning: A Framework Integrating Habitat Suitability, Connectivity and Individual‐Based Modelling. A Case Study With the Eurasian Lynx in the Apennines

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Aim Reintroducing carnivores is a widely used approach to restore the natural integrity of ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDMs) and connectivity analyses are valuable tools for planning reintroductions identifying release sites but rarely combined. We propose new framework combining SDMs, modelling individual‐based (IBMs) assess feasibility various reintroduction scenarios. As case study, we applied this plan potential Eurasian lynx ( Lynx ) Apennines by: (i) assessing niche overlap between source target populations; (ii) integrating habitat suitability select (iii) evaluating outcomes through IBMs. Location Apennines, Peninsular Italy. Methods combined analysis, ensembles fine‐tuned SDMs circuit‐theory techniques model connectivity. Then, integrated predictions within GIS environment identify optimal under different Finally, IBMs population viability, site occupancy dispersal. Results Niche suggested that Carpathian populations may serve as valid source. Integrating highlighted most functional in Central (CA) Northern (NA). A scenario with individuals released both CA NA did not outperform single‐area Releasing only showed long‐term higher risk isolation, while would result viable long term, despite closer proximity suitable areas Alps. Main Conclusions Our can help practitioners selection species reintroductions. recommend incorporating demography, well dispersal settlement phases, when This identifies critical mortality areas, predicts size, enhances decision‐making successful

Language: Английский

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Estimating resistance surfaces using gradient forest and allelic frequencies

Molecular Ecology Resources, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 27, 2023

Understanding landscape connectivity has become a global priority for mitigating the impact of fragmentation on biodiversity. Connectivity methods that use link-based traditionally rely relating pairwise genetic distance between individuals or demes to their (e.g., geographic distance, cost distance). In this study, we present an alternative conventional statistical approaches refine surfaces by adapting gradient forest approach produce resistance surface. Used in community ecology, is extension random forest, and been implemented genomic studies model species offset under future climatic scenarios. By design, adapted method, resGF, ability handle multiple environmental predicators not subjected traditional assumptions linear models such as independence, normality linearity. Using simulations, Gradient Forest (resGF) performance was compared other published (maximum likelihood population effects model, forest-based least-cost transect analysis distribution model). univariate scenarios, resGF able distinguish true surface contributing diversity among competing better than methods. multivariate performed similarly using but outperformed MLPE-based Additionally, two worked examples are provided previously data sets. This machine learning algorithm potential improve our understanding inform long-term biodiversity conservation strategies.

Language: Английский

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The road to integrate climate change effects on land-use change in regional biodiversity models

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 28, 2022

Juliano Sarmento Cabral1, Alma Mendoza-Ponce2,3, André Pinto da Silva4,5, Johannes Oberpriller6, Anne Mimet7, Julia Kieslinger8, Thomas Berger9, Jana Blechschmidt1, Maximilian Brönner8, Alice Classen10, Stefan Fallert1, Florian Hartig6, Christian Hof7, Markus Hoffmann11, Knoke12, Andreas Krause13, Lewerentz1, Perdita Pohle8, Uta Raeder11, Anja Rammig13, Sarah Redlich10, Sven Rubanschi7, Stetter14, Wolfgang Weisser7, Daniel Vedder1,15,16,17 , Peter H. Verburg18, Damaris Zurell191 Ecosystem Modelling, Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB), University of Würzburg, Klara-Oppenheimer-Weg 32, 37074, Germany2 Research Program on Climate Change, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico3 International Institute Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria4 Department Ecology Genetics, Animal Ecology, Evolutionary Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden5 Centre Evolution Environmental Changes (cE3c), Faculdade Ciências, Universidade Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal6 Lab, Regensburg, Universitätsstraße 31, 93053 Germany7 Technical Munich, Terrestrial Group, Life Science Systems, School Sciences, 84354 Freising, Germany8 Geography, Friedrich-Alexander Erlangen-Nuernberg, Wetterkreuz 15, 91058 Erlangen, Germany9 Land-Use Economics in the Tropics Subtropics, Hans-Ruthenberg Institute, Hohenheim Hohenheim, Germany10 Tropical Biology, Biocentre, Am Hubland, 97074 Germany11 Limnologische Station Iffeldorf, Chair Aquatic Science,Hofmark 1-3, 82393 Germany12 Forest Management, 58354 Germany13 Land Surface-Atmosphere Interactions, 85354 Germany14 Agricultural Production Resource Economics, Germany15 Helmholtz - UFZ, Services, Permoserstr. 04318 Leipzig, Germany16 Biodiversity, Friedrich Schiller Jena, Dornburger Straße 159, 07743 Germany17 German Integrative Biodiversity (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Puschstr. 4, 04103 Germany18 Studies, VU Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV The Netherlands19 & Macroecology, Inst. Biochemistry Potsdam, Neuen Palais 10, 14469 GermanyArticle type: review/perspective

Language: Английский

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Problems seeded in the past: lagged effects of historical land-use changes can cause an extinction debt in long-lived species due to movement limitation

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 37(5), P. 1331 - 1346

Published: Jan. 3, 2022

Abstract Context Land-use change is one of the main threats to biodiversity on global scale. Legacy effects historical land-use changes may affect population dynamics long-lived species, but they are difficult evaluate through observational studies alone. We present here an interdisciplinary modelling approach as alternative address this problem in landscape ecology. Objectives Assess agricultural abandonment and anthropisation species. Specifically, we evaluated: (a) how movement patterns caused by might impact dynamics; (b) time-lag responses demographic variables relation changes. Methods applied individual-based spatial-explicit simulation model spur-tighed tortoise ( Testudo graeca ), endangered sequences real-world representing at local analysed different compared “impact scenario” (i.e., changes) with a “control (no changes). Results While did not lead relevant variables, negatively affected reproductive rate, density extinction probability 20, 30 130 years, respectively, debt 22%. Conclusions provide understanding animal driven can translate into lagged impacts demography and, ultimately, viability. Implementation proactive mitigation management needed promote connectivity, especially for species which first signatures arise only after decades.

Language: Английский

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Demography–environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 378(1881)

Published: May 29, 2023

Species respond to climate change with range and abundance dynamics. To better explain predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. Here, aim infer demography–climate relationships from distribution data. For this, developed spatially explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. These jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics climate-dependence three processes—juvenile survival, adult survival fecundity. The were calibrated 267 nationwide time series in Bayesian framework. fitted showed moderate excellent goodness-of-fit discriminatory power. most influential predictors performance mean breeding-season temperature total winter precipitation. Contemporary benefitted trends typical mountain birds leading lower losses or even slight increases, whereas lowland adversely affected. Our results emphasize that generic embedded robust statistical framework can improve our predictions may allow disentangling processes. future research, advocate stronger integration experimental empirical studies order gain more precise insights into mechanisms which affects This article is part theme issue ‘Detecting attributing causes biodiversity change: needs, gaps solutions’.

Language: Английский

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The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models

People and Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(5), P. 1716 - 1741

Published: May 24, 2023

Abstract Current approaches to project spatial biodiversity responses climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of species while regarding land use and cover as constant or prescribed by global land‐use scenarios. However, local decisions are often affected top socioeconomic policy drivers. To realistically understand predict impacts biodiversity, it is, therefore, necessary integrate both indirect (via climate‐driven change) biodiversity. In this perspective paper, we outline how models could be better integrated with regional, models. We initially provide a short, non‐exhaustive review empirical modelling land‐cover (LU) (BD) at regional scales, which forms base for our about improved integration LU BD consider diversity approaches, special emphasis mechanistic also look current levels model properties, such inputs outputs, further identify challenges opportunities. find that in is more frequent than other way around has been achieved different levels: from overlapping predictions simultaneously coupled simulations (i.e. bidirectional effects). Of LU‐BD socio‐ecological models, some studies included LU, but relative contribution vs. remains key research challenge. Important avenues include concerted efforts harmonizing temporal resolution, disentangling explicitly accounting feedbacks, ultimately feeding systems back into predictions. These can navigated matching plugins format resolution conversion, increasing forecast horizon adequate uncertainty. Recent developments show achievable lead novel insights climate–land use–biodiversity relations. Read free Plain Language Summary article Journal blog.

Language: Английский

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Adapting genetic algorithms for multifunctional landscape decisions: A theoretical case study on wild bees and farmers in the UK

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 19, 2024

Abstract Spatial modelling approaches to aid land‐use decisions which benefit both wildlife and humans are often limited the comparison of pre‐determined landscape scenarios, may not reflect true optimum for any end‐user. Furthermore, needs under‐represented when considered alongside human financial interests in these approaches. We develop a method addressing gaps using case‐study wild bees UK, an important group whose declines adversely affect economies surrounding ecosystems. By combining genetic algorithm NSGA‐II with process‐based pollinator model simulates bee foraging population dynamics, Poll4pop, we ‘evolve’ typical UK agricultural identify land cover configurations three different guilds bee. These compared those resulting from optimisations farm income alone, as well that seek compromise between populations objectives. find proportions landscapes optimised each guild their nesting habitat preferences rather than preferences, highlighting limiting resource within study landscape. The spatially explicit nature illustrates how improvement given target species be by differences movement range scale units being improved. Land composition configuration differ significantly growth simultaneously illustrate agents required much more multifaceted biodiversity is recognised represented multiple objectives optimisation framework. Our methods provide way quantify extent real‐life promote or end‐users. investigation suggests set‐up (decision‐unit scales, traditional choice single metric) can bias outcomes towards human‐centric solutions. It also demonstrates importance representing individual requirements actors landscape‐level algorithms support biodiversity‐inclusive decision‐making multi‐functional landscapes.

Language: Английский

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Achieving higher standards in species distribution modeling by leveraging the diversity of available software

Ecography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 19, 2024

The increasing online availability of biodiversity data and advances in ecological modeling have led to a proliferation open‐source tools. In particular, R packages for species distribution continue multiply without guidance on how they can be employed together, resulting high fidelity researchers one or several packages. Here, we assess the wide variety software models (SDMs) highlight work together diversify expand analyses each step workflow. We also introduce new package ‘sdmverse' catalog metadata packages, cluster them based their methodological functions, visualize relationships. To demonstrate pluralism use helps improve SDM workflows, provide three extensive fully documented that utilize tools visualization from multiple then score these tutorials according recent standards. end by identifying gaps capabilities current highlighting outstanding challenges development SDMs.

Language: Английский

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Making virtual species less virtual by reverse engineering of spatiotemporal ecological models

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(9), P. 2376 - 2389

Published: July 8, 2023

Abstract The virtual species (VS) and ecologist (VE) approaches are useful tools that allow testing different methodological aspects of distribution modelling. However, methods used to generate VS so far lack solutions can ensure a high degree biological realism, taking into account spatial temporal variability population densities. We have developed method for generating dynamic reconstruct their living prototypes in realistic way. framework consists fitting spatiotemporal model real abundance data, from over the entire study area spanning whole period, calibrating VS, obtaining VE data by sampling VS. effectiveness approach has been illustrated large‐scale long‐term bird monitoring, using whinchat Saxicola rubetra as system. evaluated how well ‘true’ system comparing response curves trends between those (i.e. what constitutes ‘truth’) estimated replicated instances data. In addition, we performed sensitivity analysis test varying effort affects accuracy trend estimation. synthetic thoroughly reconstructed monitoring Response generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), fitted these two types showed concordance, indicated 95% confidence intervals coverage probability 87.7%–99.8% (mean 96.9%). accurately calculated (coverage probability: 82.3%). proposed reverse engineering ecological reproduces properties original system, substantially increasing realism simulation results. may further applications evaluating various modelling techniques range dynamics, where real‐world particular importance, like conservation invasion biology or climate change impact assessment.

Language: Английский

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