Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 28(22), P. 6586 - 6601

Published: Aug. 5, 2022

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution are primarily used understand scope potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential where why can give implausible results identify which processes contribute uncertainty. Here, we use series simulated distributions, an ensemble 252 models, three regional ocean projections, isolate influences uncertainty from earth system model spread ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine with different functional traits preferences more broadly address resource manager fishery stakeholder needs, provide true state evaluate projections. We present our relative degree environmental extrapolation historical conditions, helps facilitate interpretation by modelers working diverse systems. found associated models exceed generated diverging (up 70% total 2100), that this result was consistent across traits. Species increased through time related extrapolated into novel conditions moderated how well captured underlying dynamics driving distributions. predictive power remained relatively high first 30 years alignment period stakeholders make strategic decisions based on information. By understanding sources uncertainty, they change at forecast horizons, recommendations projecting under global change.

Language: Английский

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Spatial match–mismatch between predators and prey under climate change

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(9), P. 1593 - 1601

Published: June 24, 2024

Language: Английский

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Using predator diets to infer forage fish distribution and assess responses to climate variability in the eastern Bering Sea

Marine Ecology Progress Series, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 741, P. 71 - 99

Published: Aug. 4, 2023

Forage fishes comprise an integral part of marine food webs in the highly productive ecosystems North Pacific. However, significant knowledge gaps exist related to status forage fish, their life histories, and how populations may react future climatic shifts. Standardized bottom trawl surveys are critical stock assessment groundfish but lack gear protocols quantitatively evaluate small pelagic fish. Where diet data available, predators be used as indirect method collecting on fish distribution relative abundance. We stomach contents infer predator-prey interactions eastern Bering Sea analyze 5 taxa over a 34 yr time series (1985-2019). Using 4 dominant predators, we constructed predator depth temperature habitat profiles center gravity (COG) analysis global index collocation examine overlap. Results provide insight partitioning competitive between species dynamics prey. Interannual COG analyses indicated recent periods cooling (2007-2013) warming (2014-2019) had effects suggest differences resilience climate change this region. Population shifts were particularly evident anomalous warming, highlighting need understand prolonged affect dynamics. also demonstrate importance these might inform multi-species models management strategies.

Language: Английский

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Spatial and temporal patterns in the distribution of fishes

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 199 - 222

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Impacts of different types of data integration on the predictions of spatio-temporal models: A fishery application and simulation experiment

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 284, P. 107321 - 107321

Published: March 11, 2025

Language: Английский

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Current and future habitat suitability of northern fur seals and overlap with the commercial walleye pollock fishery in the eastern Bering Sea

Movement Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: April 14, 2025

Abstract Background Understanding the abiotic and biotic drivers of species distribution is critical for climate-informed ecosystem management. We aimed to understand habitat selection northern fur seals in eastern Bering Sea, a declining population that also key predator walleye pollock, target largest U.S. commercial fishery. Methods developed models using random forest by combining satellite telemetry data from lactating female tagged at different rookery complexes on Pribilof Islands Sea with regional ocean model simulations. explored how aggregation two spatial scales (Pribilof-wide complex-specific) impacted performance predicted distributions. Spatial predictions under hindcasted (1992–2018) projected (2050–2059) physical biological conditions were used identify areas core habitat, overlap fishery catches, potential changes future suitability. Results The most important environmental predictor variables across all bathymetry, bottom temperature, surface temperature. Pribilof-wide both under- overrepresented importance specific areas, while complex-specific exhibited considerable variability transferability performance. majority occurred continental shelf overlapped catches pollock during “B” season (June – October), an average 76% total percentage catch occurring seal within foraging range females. Projections revealed suitability may occur coming decades, variation magnitude direction changes. Conclusions Our results illustrate need sample multiple sites whenever possible consider scale when extrapolating output central-place foragers, even terrestrial are < 10 km apart. high between suitable coupled suitability, underscore targeted studies investigating fisheries impacts this population.

Language: Английский

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Dynamic human, oceanographic, and ecological factors mediate transboundary fishery overlap across the Pacific high seas

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 25(1), P. 60 - 81

Published: Sept. 19, 2023

Abstract The management and conservation of tuna other transboundary marine species have to date been limited by an incomplete understanding the oceanographic, ecological socioeconomic factors mediating fishery overlap interactions, how these vary across expansive, open ocean habitats. Despite advances in fisheries monitoring biologging technology, few attempts made conduct integrated analyses at basin scales relevant pelagic highly migratory they target. Here, we use vessel tracking data, archival tags, observer records, machine learning examine inter‐ intra‐annual variability (2013–2020) five longline fishing fleets with North Pacific albacore ( Thunnus alalunga , Scombridae). Although progressive declines catch biomass observed over past several decades, is one only stocks primarily targeted longlines not currently listed as overfished or experiencing overfishing. We find that varies significantly time space mediated (1) differences habitat preferences between juvenile adult albacore; (2) variation oceanographic features known aggregate biomass; (3) different spatial niches shallow‐set deep‐set gear. These findings may significant implications for stock assessment this systems, particularly reliance on fishery‐dependent data index abundance. Indeed, argue additional consideration overlap, catchability, size selectivity parameters be required ensure development robust, equitable, climate‐resilient harvest control rules.

Language: Английский

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Integrating survey and observer data improves the predictions of New Zealand spatio-temporal models

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 80(7), P. 1991 - 2007

Published: Aug. 22, 2023

Abstract In many situations, species distribution models need to make use of multiple data sources address their objectives. We developed a spatio-temporal modelling framework that integrates research survey and collected by observers onboard fishing vessels while accounting for physical barriers (islands, convoluted coastlines). demonstrated our two bycatch in New Zealand deepwater fisheries: spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) javelinfish (Lepidorhynchus denticulatus). Results indicated employing observer-only or integrated is necessary map fish biomass at the scale exclusive economic zone, interpolate local indices (e.g., east coast South Island) years with no but available observer data. also showed that, if enough are available, fisheries analysts should: (1) develop both an model relying on survey-only data; (2) given geographic area, ultimately choose index produced based reliability interannual variability index. conducted simulation experiment, which predictions virtually insensitive consideration barriers.

Language: Английский

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Understanding the spatio-temporal abundance patterns of the major bycatch species groups in the Ross Sea region Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) fishery

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 262, P. 106647 - 106647

Published: Feb. 7, 2023

Language: Английский

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Climate Covariate Choice and Uncertainty in Projecting Species Range Shifts: A Case Study in the Eastern Bering Sea

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 16, 2024

ABSTRACT Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated effects temperature on movement, there is a need incorporate wider suite ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate rate responses shocks. As subarctic ecosystem at sea ice margin, Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) warming faster than much global ocean, resulting in rapid redistribution key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning adaptation, we combine 40 years scientific surveys with high‐resolution oceanographic model examine bottom temperature, oxygen, pH regional index (the extent EBS ‘cold pool’) projections through end century. We use multimodel inference partition uncertainty among earth systems models, scenarios parameterizations for several economically important groundfish crabs. Covariate choice primary source most species, that account spatial cold pool performing better suggesting more extensive northward movements alternative models. Models suggest declines probability occurrence low oxygen concentrations species. project directionally consistent with, yet larger those previously estimated accounting large‐scale variability may substantially alter projections.

Language: Английский

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