Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 384(6694), P. 458 - 465

Published: April 25, 2024

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions future scenarios of land-use climate change. During the 20th century, declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated a range indicators. Provisioning increased several fold, regulating decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have potential slow loss resulting change demand for provisioning while reducing or reversing declines services. However, negative impacts due appear poised increase, particularly higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed meet goals Convention Biological Diversity.

Language: Английский

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Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 628(8009), P. 788 - 794

Published: March 27, 2024

Abstract Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change 1 . Signals of biodiversity come time-series abundance datasets for thousands species over large geographic and temporal scales. Analyses these have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases decreases. However, analyses not fully accounted spatial, phylogenetic structures the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile 2–11 that decreases under existing approaches vanish once are for. This is consequence severely underestimating trend uncertainty sometimes misestimating direction. Under our revised average appropriately recognize uncertainty, failed observe single increasing or decreasing at 95% credible intervals datasets. emphasizes how little known about vast spatial taxonomic Despite this scales, reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting structures. Improved offers hope estimating policy-relevant guiding adaptive conservation responses.

Language: Английский

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Multi-decadal improvements in the ecological quality of European rivers are not consistently reflected in biodiversity metrics

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(3), P. 430 - 441

Published: Jan. 26, 2024

Language: Английский

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The global human impact on biodiversity

Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 26, 2025

Abstract Human activities drive a wide range of environmental pressures, including habitat change, pollution and climate resulting in unprecedented effects on biodiversity 1,2 . However, despite decades research, generalizations the dimensions extent human impacts remain ambiguous. Mixed views persist trajectory at local scale 3 even more so biotic homogenization across space 4,5 We compiled 2,133 publications covering 97,783 impacted reference sites, creating an unparallelled dataset 3,667 independent comparisons all main organismal groups, habitats five most predominant pressures 1,6 For comparisons, we quantified three key measures to assess how these shifts composition biological communities changes diversity, respectively. show that distinctly shift community decrease diversity terrestrial, freshwater marine ecosystems. Yet, contrary long-standing expectations, there is no clear general communities. Critically, direction magnitude vary organisms scales which they are studied. Our exhaustive global analysis reveals impact mediating factors can benchmark conservation strategies.

Language: Английский

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30×30 biodiversity gains rely on national coordination

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Nov. 6, 2023

Global commitments to protect 30% of land by 2030 present an opportunity combat the biodiversity crisis, but reducing extinction risk will depend on where countries expand protection. Here, we explore a range 30×30 conservation scenarios that vary what dimension is prioritized (taxonomic groups, species-at-risk, facets) and how protection coordinated (transnational, national, or regional approaches) test which decisions influence our ability capture in spatial planning. Using Canada as model nation, evaluate well each scenario captures using scalable indicators while accounting for climate change, data bias, uncertainty. We find only 15% all terrestrial vertebrates, plants, butterflies (representing 6.6% species-at-risk) are adequately represented existing protected land. However, nationally approach could 65% species representing 40% species-at-risk. How has largest impact, with approaches protecting up 38% fewer choice incurs much smaller trade-offs. These results demonstrate potential highlighting critical importance biodiversity-informed national strategies.

Language: Английский

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Long‐term shift towards shady and nutrient‐rich habitats in Central European temperate forests

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 242(3), P. 1018 - 1028

Published: March 4, 2024

Summary Biodiversity world‐wide has been under increasing anthropogenic pressure in the past century. The long‐term response of biotic communities tackled primarily by focusing on species richness, community composition and functionality. Equally important are shifts between entire habitat types, which remain an unexplored level biodiversity change. We have resurveyed > 2000 vegetation plots temperate forests central Europe to capture changes over average five decades. were assigned eight broad forest types using algorithmic classification system. analysed transitions interpreted trend terms environmental conditions. identified a directional shift along combined gradients canopy openness soil nutrients. Nutrient‐poor open‐canopy habitats declined strongly favour fertile closed‐canopy habitats. However, was not uniform across whole gradients. conclude that represent century‐long successional with significant consequences for biodiversity. Open should be urgently targeted plant diversity restoration through implementation active management. approach presented here can applied other at different spatio‐temporal scales.

Language: Английский

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Herbarium collections remain essential in the age of community science

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Aug. 31, 2024

The past decade has yielded more biodiversity observations from community science than the century of traditional scientific collection. This rapid influx data is promising for overcoming critical shortfalls, but we also have vast untapped resources held in undigitized natural history collections. Yet, ability these collections to fill gaps, especially compared against constant accumulation data, remains unclear. Here, compare how well (iNaturalist) and digitized herbarium specimens represent diversity, distributions, modeling needs vascular plants Canada. We find that, despite having only a third as many records, capture taxonomic, phylogenetic, functional diversity efficiently species' environmental niches. As such, digitization Canada's 7.3M remaining potential quintuple our model biodiversity. In contrast, it would require over 27M iNaturalist produce similar benefits. Our findings indicate that digitizing Earth's likely an efficient, feasible, potentially investment when comes improving predict protect into future. authors found specimens, finding with one-third herbaria still by several metrics.

Language: Английский

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Linnean and Wallacean shortfalls in the knowledge of arthropod species in Chile: Challenges and implications for regional conservation

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 281, P. 110027 - 110027

Published: March 30, 2023

Despite global efforts to identify and classify species improve biodiversity baselines, there still remains large knowledge shortfalls that affect our understanding of the functioning ecosystems design effective conservation practices. Using results first ongoing large-scale inventory for Chile which has already recorded ca. 1,800 discovered 87 new arthropods, we explore discuss taxonomy (Linnean) distribution (Wallacean) preclude arthropod one lesser studied groups in world — arthropods. Linnean are mainly associated with lack funding monitoring initiatives bias towards most charismatic or umbrella species, turn trigger effects on experts' availability, recruitment taxonomists research centers, journal impact factors, as well availability scientific collections type specimens. Instead, Wallacean related accessibility remote areas, spatial temporal resolution sampling efforts. Based literature review, findings also propose a novel conceptual framework aimed reduce data gaps support policies, particularly developing countries. The three main components: (1) ecosystems, their threats; (2) key elements assessment strategy, (3) an action plan protecting biodiversity.

Language: Английский

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Trends in monitoring of Australia’s threatened birds (1990–2020): much improved but still inadequate

Emu - Austral Ornithology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 124(1), P. 21 - 36

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Monitoring is vital to conservation, enabling conservation scientists detect population declines, identify threats and measure the effectiveness of interventions. However, not all threatened taxa are monitored, monitoring quality variable, various components likely differ in their rates improvement over time. We assessed presence quality, using a range metrics, for Australia's bird from 1990 2020 (four assessments spanning 30 years). used our understand decadal trends number monitored; quality; groups that conduct monitoring. The birds has increased substantially since 1990, 19% 75% 2020. also improved, with 24.1% overall as 'Good' or 'Very Good' (up 4.8% 1990). by 2020, most programmes still scored poorly Data availability/reporting, Management linkage, Demographic data Training/succession planning. In private individuals governments accounted 59% contributions, greatest monitored (79 166 assessed). Despite improvements only minority had high-quality recent assessment period. powerful tool justifying investment improving how it conducted. draw on results examples develop set priority actions improve birds.

Language: Английский

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Global monitoring for biodiversity: Uncertainty, risk, and power analyses to support trend change detection

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(7)

Published: Feb. 16, 2024

Global targets aim to reverse biodiversity declines by 2050 but require knowledge of current trends and future projections under policy intervention. First, given uncertainty in measurement trends, we propose a risk framework, considering probability magnitude decline. While only 11 198 systems analyzed (taxonomic groups country from the Living Planet Database) showed declining abundance with high certainty, 20% had 70% chance strong declines. Society needs decide acceptable risks loss. Second, calculated statistical power detect trend change using ~12,000 populations 62 currently showing Current hinders our ability assess improvements. Trend is detectable certainty 14 systems, even if thousands are sampled, conservation action reduces net zero immediately, on average. We provide potential solutions improve monitoring progress toward targets.

Language: Английский

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