Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 1117 - 1135

Published: Aug. 19, 2024

Abstract. Tipping points characterize the situation when a system experiences abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes in response to only gradual change environmental conditions. Given that such events are most cases undesirable, numerous approaches have been proposed identify if is approaching tipping point. Such termed early warning signals represent set of methods for identifying statistical underlying behaviour across time or space would be indicative an Although idea warnings class not new, last 2 decades, topic has generated enormous amount interest, mainly theoretical. At same time, unprecedented data originating from remote sensing systems, field measurements, surveys, simulated data, coupled with innovative models cutting-edge computing, made possible development multitude tools detecting variety scientific fields. However, we miss complete picture where, how, which used so far real-world case studies. Here review literature 20 years show how use these indicators spread ecology climate many other disciplines. We document what metrics used; their success; field, system, involved. find that, despite acknowledged limitations challenges, majority studies reviewed, performance was positive points. Overall, generality employed – fact can theory observed dynamical systems explains continuous diversification application domains.

Language: Английский

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Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

Research aimed at identifying indicators of persistent abrupt shifts in ecological communities, a.k.a regime shifts, has led to the development a suite early warning signals (EWSs). As these often perform inaccurately when applied real-world observational data, it remains unclear whether critical transitions are dominant mechanism and, if so, which EWS methods can predict them. Here, using multi-trophic planktonic data on multiple lakes from around world, we classify both lake dynamics and reliability classic second generation EWSs whole-ecosystem change. We find few instances transitions, with different trophic levels expressing forms The ability this change is highly processing dependant, most not performing better than chance, multivariate being weakly superior univariate, recent machine learning model poorly. Our results suggest that predictive ecology should start move away concept developing suitable for predicting resilience loss limited strict bounds bifurcation theory.

Language: Английский

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Slow down and be critical before using early warning signals in psychopathology

Nature Reviews Psychology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(11), P. 767 - 780

Published: Oct. 10, 2024

Early warning signals are considered to be generic indicators of a system's accumulating instability and 'critical slowing down' prior substantial abrupt transitions between stable states. In clinical psychology, these have been proposed enable personalized predictions the impending onset, recurrence remission mental health problems before changes in symptoms occur, thereby facilitating timely therapeutic interventions. this Perspective, we question idea that early person's emotion time series can predict symptoms. Using empirical findings date theoretical methodological limitations inherent their application, argue there is little support for use based on critical down psychology. Deepening our knowledge foundations predictors improving measurement key clarifying potential boundaries psychopathology. It necessary build insights gained from signal studies improve evaluate alternative methods, keeping mind applications require prospective, real-time not only indicate whether, but also when, specific person likely experience health. symptom provide warnings risk recovery. Helmich et al. utility such discuss avenues change prediction.

Language: Английский

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Stability metrics behave predictably across data qualities but are sensitive to community size

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 307, P. 111191 - 111191

Published: April 24, 2025

Language: Английский

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Towards ecosystem‐based techniques for tipping point detection

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

An ecosystem shifts to an alternative stable state when a threshold of accumulated pressure (i.e. direct impact environmental change or human activities) is exceeded. Detecting this in empirical data remains challenge because ecosystems are governed by complex interlinkages and feedback loops between their components pressures. In addition, multiple mechanisms exist that can make resilient shifts. Therefore, unless broad ecological perspective used detect shifts, it questionable what extent current detection methods really capture whether inferences made from smaller scale analyses be implemented into management. We reviewed the techniques currently for retrospective data. show most not suitable taking approximately 85% do combine intervariable non-linear relationships high-dimensional variables, but rather tend focus on one subsystem ecosystem. Thus, our perception may limited often sets, unrepresentative whole ecosystems. By reviewing characteristics, advantages, limitations techniques, we identify provide potential incorporate ecosystem-based approach. therefore perspectives developing better suited detecting interactions high-dimensionality

Language: Английский

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Resilience metrics are robust across data qualities but sensitive to community size.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 25, 2023

Abstract Modern biodiversity monitoring is generating increasingly multidimensional representations of wildlife populations and ecosystems. It therefore appealing for conservation environmental governance to combine that information into single measure ecosystem or population health. Stability a desirable feature ecosystems supports this aim, measured through resistance, recovery, variability. The Jacobian matrix common characteristic used identify the resistance resilience deterministic mathematical systems whilst historically it has been challenging estimate from empirical data, recent work proposed suite metrics capable reconstructing real-world community using time series data. Here we assess robustness three two variability estimating stability varying lengths data qualities based on seen in series. Using Lotka–Volterra equations, generate short (to match global datasets such as Living Planet Index BIOTIME) sampling error corruptions mimic search efforts) validate metric performance all improved with length anticipated manner. However, number species dramatically altered capability, larger communities decreasing reliability trends. Overall, behave predictably across realistic corruptions. Generic estimation possible abundance alone, suggest that, given increasing availability multivariate focussing estimates plausible condition indicator.

Language: Английский

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EWSmethods: Forecasting Tipping Points at the Community Level

Published: April 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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